Soooo, I want an essay. Please tell me how the Trojan would have gone in any level of detail had Paris given the apple to Hera or Athena.
Iām afraid I canāt go into too much detail, and this is more personal musings than essay, but nevertheless thank you for asking! Also thank you to @mitsybubbles for helping me out with this :)
First of all, technically, there could be no other path for the Judgement of Paris because fate rules it. Fate says there had to be a war in which Troy would fall, so that will happen. But for the sake of this ask, Iāll ignore that for a moment.
Now, regardless of who Paris wouldāve chosen, a war wouldāve started. Agamemnon was using Helenās kidnapping as an excuse anyway, he had been waiting to start a war for actual political/economical purposes for a while now.
Iāll start with Heraās route:
If Paris chooses Hera, heād be king over a large kingdomāthat was the promise. This is not a Barbie film (sadly) so we have to use some logic here, he canāt just become king automatically. When he is accepted back into the Trojan royal family, he is at least 4th in line to the throne. He has no inheritance to any other kingdom so becoming king would require the deaths of at least Priam, Hector, Deiphobus and Helenus before him. There is no way they would all die shortly one after the other excluding illness (unlikely since theyāre favored by Apollo) and targeted murder. Either way, itās depressing for Paris. Beyond that, he really wouldnāt make a great king? Heād be depressed and out of place. And, like I said, it wouldnāt prevent a war. The larger a kingdom gets, the bigger threat it poses to other kingdoms. If the Achaean army didnāt consider Troy a threat at that point and start a defensive war, Trojan leaders would get power drunk and start the war themselves. Using the oath, the Greeks would win.
Conclusion: Hera path is a bad path.
Athena promised Paris skill in battle and victory in war. In that sense heād be taking over the current position Hector or Achilles have in the Iliad respectively. Only problem: Both Hector and Achilles die. Paris would be the target of every opponent. Not fun. Beyond that, Athena has a thing for controlling her heroesā every step and she isnāt scared of using manipulation or psychological tricks on her heroes. Odysseus and Diomedes deal with that pretty well because theyāre on Athenaās level in some way or another. Paris has close to no points if similarity with Athena (unlike Aphrodite). Athena would quite literally drive him mad. Also, like before, Paris explicitly says in the Iliad that he has no interest in the military. He would be out of place. As for the start of the war, Helen might not be involved, but Agamemnon would find a reason to start a war anyway. Paris would still die in a war that the Greeks will inevitably win.
Conclusion: Athena path is also a bad path.
As for Aphroditeās path, we all know how that goes.
Another change that Parisā decision would make is obviously which gods are on which side of the war. This obviously especially effects Athena, Hera, Aphrodite and by extension Ares.
Okay, technically answered your question (i hope), but I wanted to say a little more on the judgment of Paris in his defense.
Paris was chosen to select the most beautiful of the goddesses because heās honest and impartial. He has virtues, heās not just horny. Obviously, we canāt judge, but personally I think itās clear that Aphrodite is the most beautiful of the three. Sheās the goddess of beauty. Maybe Paris wasnāt regarding their bribery at all, maybe he was just making an honest decision. After all, the competition was regarding their beauty not their bribery.
If thatās not what Paris was thinking of, maybe he was making what he considered a politically smart move. I mean, how is Paris supposed to know that the āmost beautiful woman on earthā was going to be the sister-in-law of the most powerful king in Greece and that he was prince of Troy, their biggest enemy? How was he supposed to know that getting married was going to start a war? In comparison to Athena and Heraās routes, getting married seems harmless.
Also, I mentioned this briefly before, but Paris and Aphrodite have loads of similarities. It makes sense that sheād be his patron goddess, hence him choosing her.