The Uses For A Probability Calculator
A probability calculator is a tool that can compute the likelihood that an event will occur while taking into consideration the existence of other factors. Probability calculation uses mathematical procedures to produce incomplete knowledge based on contextual conditions. When something is absolutely certain to occur, the probability is 100% or 1. When the probability of any event occurring is less than 100%, there is a possibility that the event will not occur. The probability of an event A can be calculated given the existence of conditions B, C, and D, without B but with C and D, without B or C but with D, etc. with an endless number of potential combinations.
The calculation of probability allows planning based on the most likely scenario. For example, if the probability of a tsunami after an earthquake is 60%, it means that, out of ten times that the same conditions are present, six of those times a tsunami will occur, and four out of those ten times it will not. We don't know for sure if any given earthquake will actually produce a tsunami, but, in the case of a catastrophic event such as a tsunami, even a 5% probability might warrant evacuation of inhabited locations within risk areas. However, due to the human costs of evacuation, a 0.000001, or one in a million, chance of a tsunami occurrence probably would not warrant evacuation. In the latter case, the probability of a tsunami would be so remote, albeit possible, that the costs related to evacuation would outweigh the potential benefits.
The use of probabilities is employed in the fields of statistics, medicine, social sciences, business, marketing, engineering, aerospace, and other related sciences. For example, in epidemiology, certain genetic tests calculate the likelihood that an individual will get a disease while taking into consideration certain personal traits, such as an individuals risk for breast or ovarian cancer when that individual carries a deleterious BRCA gene mutation. Women who have inherited the BRCA1 gene mutation have a 50% to 65% risk of developing breast cancer by the time they reach 70 years of age. Among offspring of a gene mutation carrier, the probability of inheriting this gene is 0.5 or 50%. This means that among children of parents with a BRCA gene mutation, one out of two will inherit the gene.
Statistical tests are employed in scientific studies to calculate the probability that an observation occurred by chance; this is called the p value. When results report that p < 0.05, it means that there is less than a 5% likelihood that the observed result occurred by chance. In engineering, the calculation of a probability can predict the likelihood of the failure of a piece of machinery given that it is of a certain age, material, etc. In the field of marketing, it is important to know the likelihood that consumers will buy a certain product or service. This is often calculated by using historical data.
Many statistical software packages calculate probabilities. A stand-alone probability calculator is also a tool that can be used when the analysis does not include large amounts of data. A probability calculator can be programmed to use any probability formula for either independent or dependent events.
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