2020 Oscars Predictions
Inspiration.
I’ve been thinking about inspiration the last two weeks.
I, like many of you, spent the better part of January 26-28, overwhelmed with the tragic passing of Kobe Bryant, his daughter, Gigi, and 7 other victims of a helicopter accident in California. It was information overload that day. Refreshing the social feeds didn’t help. News went from bad to worse. No rollercoaster of emotions, this just felt like a pit.
The news dominated Sunday.
But long lost clips of interviews and heartfelt stories took over on Monday and Tuesday, and I was truly blessed by it. There was one clip I saw more than any other. It wasn’t Kobe dropping 81 against the Raptors, or him scoring 60 on his final game. It wasn’t the lob to Shaq, the dunk over Dwight, the free throws after tearing his achilles. No, it was of him and his daughter Gigi sitting courtside at a random Haws-Nets game at the end of last year. Just talking ball, father to daugher, mentor to mentee... inspiration to inspiration.
Kobe Bryant, one of the greatest basketball players to ever play the game, won an Oscar in 2018 for Best Animated Short Film for his retirement announcement letter put to music and illustration called Dear Basketball. The final words of his acceptance speech he speaks to his wife and daughters in Italian and tells them he “loves them with all his heart” and that they are his “inspiration.”
You see inspiration is that enthusiasm you get from someone or something that drives you to create something extraordinary. It is not earned or deserved. Inspired work stands apart from everything normal.
That’s exactly what appeals to me the most about the Oscars. We get to look back in the year that was and award those truly inspired pieces of art through film. The value beyond this is that inspiration is, as David Brooks in his NY Times Op Ed put it:
“...a beautiful contagion that passes through individuals. The word itself comes from the Latin inspirare, meaning “to breath into.” One inspiring achievement — say, the space program — has a tendency to raise the sense of possibility in others — say, a little boy who dreams of being an astronomer. Then the one who is inspired performs his own feats and inspires others, and so on down the line.”
In truly contagious fashion, this year we may see a former athlete win an Oscar for his Animated Short Film called Hair Love. Matthew Cherry tells a heartfelt story of an African American father learning to do his daughter’s hair for the first time. It is worth ALL 6 minutes and MORE.
Cherry, a former NFL player, has spoken very openly about how he was inspired by Kobe’s film... and here we are.
A basketball legend inspired by his daughters
A daughter inspired by her father to pursue basketball
A former athlete inspired by a former athlete to create a short film
“Success is not just what you accomplish in your life, it is about what you inspire others to do.”
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Bee’s 2020 Oscars Predictions
Year 7! Last year was tough even though I got 5/7 correct. I included Best Documentary Feature last year so it helped my numbers but since I didn’t see any of the full length documentary films this year I’m crossing it out and replacing it with Best Animated Feature. Got to 44 movies in 2019, 1 shy of last year’s total. So close. 2019 was a really bad year in movies for a while but then Q4 turned up the heat and it ended up being one of the better years in recent memory. So let’s dive in!
Best Picture
Will Win & Hope Wins: Parasite- It comes down to Parasite and 1917 for me. I LOVED them both. Any other winner would be just absurd here. Parasite is a 100% lock to win Best Foreign Language Film, and I believe it is well deserving of becoming the first film ever to win both that and Best Picture. Director Bong Joon Ho created a masterpiece that is now in my Top 10 movies of All-Time. It is the best film I’ve seen since 2015 (The Big Short) and I think the depth of storytelling, suspense and symbolism is just near perfection.
Lead Actress
Will Win & Hope Wins: Renee Zellweger, Judy- Here’s the answer to the inevitable question “Where has she been this whole time?” Renee Zellweger did take a 6-year acting hiatus from 2009 to 2015. Her portrayal of an overwhelmed Judy Garland is in many ways representative of her own struggle with the rigors of Hollywood. Judy was a subpar, biopic but Renee Zellweger was extraordinary in it.
Lead Actor
Will Win & Hope Wins: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker- No one on earth could play Joker like that. It was such an intense performance on his part. The movie was hard to watch at times but you just couldn’t take your eyes off him. Usually biopics are the way to go for winning best acting oscars. The Lead Actor category has had a winner in biopic films in 6 out of the last 7 Oscars. Joaquin will make it 6 for 8. If for no other reason to hope he wins, that acceptance is going to be entertaining to say the least!
Director
Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917- The “one-shot” was better than any movie has ever done it. Some saw it as a gimmick but I just thought it worked so seamlessly with the plot of the movie. 1917 goes down as one of my favorite war movies of all-time. Mendes has one Oscar for directing already for American Beauty and he’s definitely deserving of this year’s prize as well.
Hope Wins: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite- I’m a member of the Bong Hive. What can I say?! It’s so hard to make a movie with no clear protagonist or antagonist. You’re not rooting for anyone, as the audience you are most literally along for the ride. I should also note that weeks later the movie sticks with you like glue but I honestly forgot it was all in Korean. The linear storytelling and purposeful nature of every scene and dialogue comes so clear in his work.
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story- Marriage Story just didn’t work for me. Laura Dern was fine but I really think people are overvaluing her performance. I tried my hardest to empathize with the circumstances surrounding their ugly divorce but unless you have a kid and are consumed with your work, I don’t think you can relate. The acting was good but there were so many unnecessary elements. I’ll just say for those that watched: Box cutter?!
Hope Wins: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit- It’s the year of Scar Jo! Nominated for Lead in Marriage Story, Supporting in Jojo Rabbit, and was a part of the highest grossing film of all-time in Avengers: Endgame. She really came into her own this year flexing her acting muscle. She was so good in Jojo Rabbit. Presented strength and weakness in such a believable way. She’s never been nominated before so all the more reason to pull for our Black Widow here.
Supporting Actor
Will Win & Hope Wins: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- Pitt has been around acting in enjoyable movies for such a long time now (Seven, Fight Club, Snatch, Troy, Ocean’s, Moneyball, etc) but he has no Oscars hardware to show for it. He was in Best Picture winning 12 Years a Slave but that award was for the film as a whole. It’s time Pitt deserves his recognition. Both his role and Margot’s were almost pseudo leads. Also the rest of the competition in the category is relatively weak (Hopkins in Two Popes was great though).
I should point out as well that his production company has for years now been involved in moving the needle on diversity in film. 12 Years a Slave was the breakthrough but since then they’ve produced:
Selma
Moonlight
Okja
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (should have nominated for Best Picture over Ford v. Ferrari)
Would love to see Pitt and his production company get its due. Oh by the way the name of said production company:
Animated Feature
Will Win: Toy Story 4- I didn’t see it. But I heard it’s not as good as Toy Story 3.
Hope Wins: Klaus- In the mold of Polar Express and Home Alone, this could be a yearly Christmas-time watch for me. It was entertaining and different and meaningful all wrapped into one animated feature film. It’s on Netflix so if you haven’t seen it, don’t even wait for Christmas to watch it.
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Best Picture Films Ranked
Parasite- 9.1
1917- 8.7
Little Women- 8.4
Jojo Rabbit- 8.2
Joker- 7.7
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- 7.7
Ford v. Ferrari- 7.5
The Irishman- 7.1
Marriage Story- 6.8
My Top 9 Movies of 2019
Parasite
1917
Blinded By the Light
The Farewell
Avengers: Endgame
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Us
Always Be my Maybe
*Endgame better win best Visual Effects. This slight against comic book movies is so tiring. See you next year!