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Academy Award Predictions: A Geeks' Guide to the Oscars
The Point of Geeks’ guide you through the 2018 Oscars and predict who they think will win in this year’s 90th Academy Awards show.
For decades, there has been a hidden conflict between the common moviegoer’s taste and the films that are annually recognized at the Academy Awards. Box-office blockbusters regularly get overlooked for smaller indie dramas, which has led many to feel that the ceremony is simply a self-congratulatory effort by the film elite. (Spoiler alert: It kind of is…)
There have been endless theories about the disparity between the two sides of movie fandom. Many have concluded that it’s the average age of the Academy voters, which stands at a ripe 67 years old, to blame. However, the generation that grew up on Steven Spielberg and the Marvel cinematic universe is coming into power in the film industry and we just might be seeing the beginning of a new era.
Ten years ago, the combination of a legendary performance and an untimely death resulting Heath Ledger’s posthumous Academy Award win for The Dark Knight. This has served as a crack of light for Geeks, signaling that things were indeed changing. However, in that same ceremony, the largest and most infamous snub of that year was The Dark Knight’s absence from the Best Picture category. The outrage led to the Academy increasing the total number of Best Picture nominations to a maximum of ten votes.
Last year was defined by the #OscarsSoWhite campaign that began as a rally cry to bring attention to the habitual lack of African-American nominations in the ceremony over the years. The movement brought attention to the nominating process, that proved to have racial and cultural biases ingrained in the institution. This led to several changes that have increased the diversity of the nominees and made an important step towards a more colorful and diverse show this year.
The nominations are in for this year’s Oscars and with this year’s 90th Academy Awards ceremony only days away, the anticipation is becoming palpable. We have sat through dozens of movies this year, as well as studied the odds for all the categories and it’s looking like it will be a show full of surprises. Below we break down our predictions for who we think will win. We also throw in our “Spoilers” pick, which indicates who we think has the best chance to upset the category. So, make sure to bring this guide with you when you watch the show this Sunday and enjoy!
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
The Point of Geeks’ Pick: Up to ten films can get a nomination in this category and it’s hard to overlook the absence of Logan. However, despite that expected slight from the the Academy, it’s clear that this is the year of Del Toro. The Shape of Water has the perfect combination of drama, horror, science-fiction, and fantasy to appease all voters. It seems that this is the perfect compromise for Best Picture to a film that’s well deserving.
Spoilers: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
The PoG: While it’s nice to see fresh talent on the board, like Margot Robbie and Saoirse Ronan, it will ultimately be a veteran who has been to the dance before. However, don’t expect Meryl to be taking home the trophy. Three Billboards struck the right nerve at the right time and the PoG foresees Frances McDormand walking away with her second Oscar. The runner-up is Sally Hawkins, who gave a powerfully silent performance in The Shape of Water and has the force of the Del Toro project behind her.
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
The PoG: It’s always refreshing when a fresh face is introduced in this category and with the blockbuster release of Black Panther, it’s good to be Daniel Kaluuya nowadays. However, the newcomer has no shot as it seems that it’s finally Gary Oldman’s time to take home the Best Actor award. His performance as Winston Churchill practically frames the leader as a superhero and after a long career of exceptional performances, Oldman will finally step on to the big stage.
Spoilers: Timothée Chalamet
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
The PoG: I still can’t process that Mary J. “Real Love” Blidge got nominated…but I digress. This is a competitive field that seemingly will come down to a cage match between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf. However, my gut is telling me that Janney will walk away with the gold, only because it’s the exact overbearing mother performance that the Academy…well…can relate to.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
The PoG: There is way too much controversy and scrutiny for Plummer to shuffle on stage for All the Money in the World. Not enough attention has been paid to The Florida Project to give Dafoe a fighting chance at a win, while Jenkins had a solid, yet ultimately forgettable role in The Shape of Water. So it will be Harrelson facing off against Rockwell for supporting superiority over Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and if other award shows are accurate, it will be Rockwell’s time to deliver a speech.
Spoilers: Woody Harrelson
Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Paul Thomas Anderson “Phantom Thread”
Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
The PoG: While Get Out was one of the best films of the year, it seems that Peele still has more dues to pay before he can expect a trophy. However, it is a win just to be invited to the ceremony along with other relative newcomer Greta Gerwig, who has a legitimate chance of winning herself. However, at the end of the day, when you whittle the list down it’s clear that Guillermo del Toro and The Shape of Water will be walking away with the trophy at the end of the night.
“Mighty River,” “Mudbound”
“Mystery of Love,” “Call Me by Your Name”
“Stand Up For Something,” “Marshall”
“This is Me,” “Greatest Showman”
The PoG: The Academy loves to reward musicals, so it would seem that Greatest Showman’s “This is Me” is the type of song born for the award show, despite the film’s more glaring issues. Anyone that saw Coco knows how powerful “Remember Me” both emotionally and narratively to the film. This is almost a flip of the coin scenario, but the push will probably go to “This is Me.”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
The PoG: John Williams is always a good bet, but expect there to be a small measure of Star Wars fatigue to hold it back. The absence of score is what helps to create the atmosphere in Dunkirk, so it might not be Hans Zimmer’s year either. Expect Alexandre Desplat, an Academy darling, to walk away with the Oscar, adding to The Shape of Water’s trophy case.
Spoilers: “Phantom Thread”
The PoG: This category should be easy to call, however the Academy has surprised us before. Coco wasn’t just the best animated films of the year hands down, it was legitimately robbed of the chance to compete for the Best Picture category. It’s that powerful, additionally the celebration and exploration of Mexican culture is the exact antidote to the xenophobic cloud in the real world.
Spoilers: “The Breadwinner”
The PoG: This one is a tight race and when that happens, you should always lean into the sentimental pick. James Ivory is the inspiring type of winner the Academy loves to see on stage and the 89 year-old writer is a gif waiting to happen, so it’s hard to imagine them passing on the opportunity to hand him the Oscar for Call Me by Your Name. But dang it, how great for geek culture would it be if Logan could somehow pull out the win.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
The PoG: This is another intense category that could go many different directions. However, the beneficiary of the competition may well end up being Jordan Peele for Get Out. It is an original story and idea that stands apart from the pack and this could be the category to make the film an Academy Award winner.
Spoilers: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
The PoG: It’s hard to ignore the elaborate production designs found in Beauty and the Beast and Blade Runner 2049. If I had a vote it would have to go to one of the aforementioned films, however this in the year of The Shape of Water.
Spoilers: “Blade Runner 2049”
The PoG: If I was on autopilot I would select The Shape of Water. However, this is a category where the Geeks will rule for a brief moment. Blade Runner 2049 has had an underwhelming audience response to a wildly ambitious movie. Which ironically followed in the footsteps of the original, where it gained “classic” status years after its release. Roger Deakins has been nominated over a dozen times in the past and has contributed decades of acclaimed work in the industry, so this seems like the perfect opportunity to reward the visionary cinematographer.
Spoilers: “The Shape of Water”
The PoG: Typically this is a tough category to parse. However, it’s hard to imagine Phantom Thread being shut out of the ceremony. The movie is set against the backdrop of the fashion industry and the costume design reflected the setting, so expect it to win. However, he marketing machine at Disney has been in overdrive and it’s not hard to imagine them getting the attention of a few voters who have a sentimental attachment to Beauty and the Beast.
Spoilers: “Beauty and the Beast”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
The PoG: Baby Driver is essentially a feature film length music video, so the marriage between visuals and sound is paramount. Dunkirk could easily win this category, but it might be time for the work of Edgar Wright to get more respect.
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
The PoG: While the visuals were stunning, it was the sounds of war that brought Dunkirk to life. The realistic whipping of bullets, the spinning of airplane propellers, and the concussive explosions were almost a character all on its own.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
The PoG: This is another area where Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk shines through. The cross-cutting found in the movie is exceptional. While the entire film’s run being set against the ticking of bomb is old-school filmmaking at its finest and the exact type of ambition that should be rewarded.
The PoG: Last year this unlikely category was a highlight for the Geek world after Suicide Squad was the unexpected winner. This year the winner should be relatively straight forward. The makeup job on Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour is flawless and a throwback to when makeup truly mattered in the film industry.
Spoilers: “Victoria and Abdul”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”
The PoG: Interestingly enough, this category is almost as important as the Best Picture to the Point of Geeks. After all, if there weren’t new revolutionary techniques in visual effects, we could never get the type of stories on screen that we long for. With all that said, if they aren’t going to give Andy Serkis an acting nod for his performance of Caesar in the reboot trilogy of Planet of the Apes, this seems like a prime opportunity to award the VFX breakthroughs that were accomplished over the course of the series.
Spoilers: “Blade Runner 2049”
The 90th Academy Awards airs this Sunday, March 4th on ABC.
Who do you want to see win at the Academy Awards this year? How did your predictions pan out? Let us know on the comment boards, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter! Share our stories by simply clicking your favorite social media below!
