Introduction to Snow Conditions in Europe for 2026.
This report provides an overview of anticipated snow conditions across Europe in 2026, drawing on current climate trends, meteorological projections, and historical data. Europe is experiencing warmer winters due to climate change, leading to reduced snowfall in many regions.
For 2026, models predict variable conditions, with potential for heavy snow in northern and mountainous areas but overall declines in accumulation compared to historical averages.
Key factors include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and global temperature rises, which could result in fewer ski days and impacts on tourism, agriculture, and water resources.
Europe's snow cover is influenced by the jet stream, Arctic air masses, and rising global temperatures. Since the 1970s, average winter temperatures have increased by about 1.5–2°C across the continent, per data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
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This has led to a 20–50% reduction in snow depth in low-elevation areas, with the Alps and Scandinavia seeing the most pronounced changes. For 2026, projections from the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate a continuation of this trend, with an El Niño-neutral year potentially moderating some extremes.
Based on ensemble forecasts from models like the ECMWF's seasonal predictions and the UK Met Office's global models:
Northern Europe (Scandinavia, Baltic States): Moderate to heavy snowfall expected in December–February, with accumulations of 50–100 cm in highlands. However, milder spells could reduce total cover by 10–20% from 2025 levels.
Central Europe (Alps, Germany, Poland): Snowfall likely in January–March, but warmer temperatures may limit depths to 20–50 cm at mid-elevations. Ski resorts could face 15–25% fewer operational days.
Southern Europe (France, Italy, Spain): Minimal snow in lowlands; mountainous regions like the Pyrenees might see 10–30 cm, down from historical norms due to Mediterranean influences.
Western Europe (UK, Ireland): Variable; potential for significant snow events if the NAO shifts negative, but overall drier winters projected.
