I agree with this in regards to GRRM’s tackling of putting Jon into this situation of having to choose between his sworn oaths or his love for Arya and contrasting that to someone like Maester Aemon.
I think Jon’s conflict with NW neutrality needs to be analyzed in two halves. His helping of Stannis and his efforts to save Arya. The first - his aiding in Stannis’ campaign - is an outcome of his belief that Stannis fights for the good of the realm and necessary for the defense of the Wall. The second is purely selfish and concerns only Arya and Jon himself. The two run as separate conflicts until they collide in the end with the Pink Letter and culminating in Jon’s assassination.
There’s really a lot of handwringing about so called NW neutrality in this fandom and it absolutely grinds my gears. I understand why this was a policy that was implemented in the past, but these are unprecedented times. For one, the realm has been plunged into civil war and there are several claimants to the Iron Throne. This makes for a very difficult position for the NW because unlike previous millennia when they were self sustaining
Here I disagree. It’s precisely because these are unprecedented times that the neutrality of the NW is all the more important. This neutrality is what underpins the theme of the series about humanity being unified against a greater threat.
They have historically relied on House Stark and Winterfell, but the Starks are also embroiled in the civil war and have even seceded from the seven kingdoms. To make nice with the Starks is to anger the Lannisters in KL, which is breaking neutrality. But they can’t anger the Starks and side with KL because they’re the ones who have sustained them all these years.
You are making the case for why the neutrality of the NW is important and why they stay away from inter-kingdom and inter-house conflicts. To make nice with one house is to anger another. And while the Starks have traditionally been the Wall’s greatest supporters (Even this can be debated considering Alysanne Targaryen did more to fund the Wall’s coffers with the Gift - a decision that the Starks disagreed with) this does not imply that the Wall would support the Starks over any other house in the event of a conflict.
As Maester Aemon explains:
“Jon, did you ever wonder why the men of the Night’s Watch take no wives and father no children?” Maester Aemon asked.
“So they will not love,” the old man answered, “for love is the bane of honor, the death of duty.”
What is honor compared to a woman’s love? What is duty against the feel of a newborn son in your arms … or the memory of a brother’s smile? Wind and words. Wind and words. We are only human, and the gods have fashioned us for love. That is our great glory, and our great tragedy. The men who formed the Night’s Watch knew that only their courage shielded the realm from the darkness to the north. They knew they must have no divided loyalties to weaken their resolve. So they vowed they would have no wives nor children.
“Yet brothers they had, and sisters. Mothers who gave them birth, fathers who gave them names. They came from a hundred quarrelsome kingdoms, and they knew times may change, but men do not. So they pledged as well that the Night’s Watch would take no part in the battles of the realms it guarded.
They kept their pledge. When Aegon slew Black Harren and claimed his kingdom, Harren’s brother was Lord Commander on the Wall, with ten thousand swords to hand. He did not march. In the days when the Seven Kingdoms were seven kingdoms, not a generation passed that three or four of them were not at war. The Watch took no part. When the Andals crossed the narrow sea and swept away the kingdoms of the First Men, the sons of the fallen kings held true to their vows and remained at their posts. So it has always been, for years beyond counting. Such is the price of honor.
Remember this neutrality has held for 8000 years, across eons and conquests and the First Men and the Andals and the Targaryens, through civil wars and wars between the different kingdoms and houses.
Does this mean that the NW is always neutral in all aspects? By the time we reach 298 AC and the Wall is a now a penal colony and failing institution in terms of it’s infrastructure and man power, we start seeing this neutrality start to fray. With the WOT5K, Tywin Lannister pushes for his candidate for Lord Commander. Tywin seems to be an anomaly here because while Stannis lands at the Wall, he does not force them to pick a candidate of his choosing. He certainly had the power to do this, but does not. With Tywin it’s not surprising because he has no regard for the customs, rules and laws of the land - ex. The Red Wedding.
As you point out, Bowen Marsh wants to please the Lannisters by making Janos Slynt Lord Commander. How did that happen? It starts with Marsh writing to all 5 kings asking for help to defend the Wall.
“The letter is from the same Bowen Marsh who sent the last. The castellan. He writes that Lord Mormont has sent word of wildlings moving south in vast numbers.” (—)
“It is not,” Pycelle admitted, “but none of Mormont’s men have returned as yet. Marsh fears the wildlings have killed them, and that the Wall itself may be attacked next.” He fumbled in his robe and found the paper. “Here is his letter, my lord, a plea to all five kings. He wants men, as many men as we can send him.”
“Five kings?” His father was annoyed. “There is one king in Westeros. Those fools in black might try and remember that if they wish His Grace to heed them. When you reply, tell him that Renly is dead and the others are traitors and pretenders.”
“No doubt they will be glad to learn it. The Wall is a world apart, and news oft reaches them late.” Pycelle bobbed his head up and down. “What shall I tell Marsh concerning the men he begs for? Shall we convene the council …” (—)
Tyrion liked that notion not at all. “The black brothers choose their own commander,” he reminded them. “Lord Slynt is new to the Wall. I know, I sent him there. Why should they pick him over a dozen more senior men?” “Because,” his father said, in a tone that suggested Tyrion was quite the simpleton, “if they do not vote as they are told, their Wall will melt before it sees another man.” - Tyrion, ASoS
The sound of voices echoing off the vaulted ceiling brought him back to Castle Black. “I don’t know,” a man was saying, in a voice thick with doubts. “Maybe if I knew the man better … Lord Stannis didn’t have much good to say of him, I’ll tell you that.”
“When has Stannis Baratheon ever had much good to say of anyone?” Ser Alliser’s flinty voice was unmistakable. “If we let Stannis choose our Lord Commander, we become his bannermen in all but name. Tywin Lannister is not like to forget that, and you know it will be Lord Tywin who wins in the end. He’s already beaten Stannis once, on the Blackwater.”
“Lord Tywin favors Slynt,” said Bowen Marsh, in a fretful, anxious voice. “I can show you his letter, Othell. ‘Our faithful friend and servant,’ he called him.” - Jon, ASoS
So Marsh writes to all the kings asking for help, Tywin writes back threatening them to elect Slynt as LC and then Stannis lands at the Wall and now things become more complicated. To stave off Tywin’s wrath, Marsh wants Slynt as the candidate.
This is in contrast to Jon Snow’s own actions with regards to the Boltons. He accedes to Mel’s suggestion to send Mance to rescue Arya from the Boltons, which then leads to Ramsay’s letter threatening the Watch if Jon does not return his bride and Stannis’ family and Jon then deciding to go attack the Warden of the North with an army of Freefolk who are despised by the North! Something against which Jon himself warns Stannis about earlier:
“Drinking from Mance Rayder’s skull may give Mors Umber pleasure, but seeing wildlings cross his lands will not. The free folk have been raiding the Umbers since the Dawn of Days, crossing the Bay of Seals for gold and sheep and women. One of those carried off was Crowfood’s daughter. Your Grace, leave the wildlings here. Taking them will only serve to turn my lord father’s bannermen against you.” - Jon, ADwD
And recall, one of the mutineers who is possibly involved in the assassination of Jon Snow is Othell Yarwyck who actually voted for Jon Snow and not Janos Slynt.
“Well, that’s so,” said Yarwyck. “Anyway, now that I’m standing here, I don’t recall why I thought Slynt would be such a good choice. That would be sort of kicking King Stannis in the mouth, and I don’t see how that serves us. Might be Snow would be better. He’s been longer on the Wall, he’s Ben Stark’s nephew, and he served the Old Bear as squire.” Yarwyck shrugged. “Pick who you want, just so it’s not me.” He sat down. - Jon, ASoS
And there’s Sam’s POV chapter, campaigning for Jon Snow, with the candidates affirming that the rulers of the realm should not decide their next LC.
The wine was sweet, and Ser Denys listened to Sam’s plea with grave courtesy, unlike Cotter Pyke. But when he was done, the old knight shook his head. “I agree that it would be a dark day in our history if a king were to name our Lord Commander. This king especially. He is not like to keep his crown for long. But truly, Samwell, it ought to be Pyke who withdraws. I have more support than he does, and I am better suited to the office.” - Sam, ASoS
There’s also the fact that up until the end of ADwD, Jon Snow is straddling that thin line between neutrality and interfering in the affairs of the realm with respect to Stannis and justifying this in his mind by seeing it as for the good of the realm. When Marsh and co. object to Stannis being at the Wall, Jon tells them he does not have the power to kick Stannis out and is helpless in this regard.
“Stannis promises land, food, and justice to any wildlings who bend the knee. He will never permit us to seal the gates.”
Marsh hesitated. “Lord Snow, I am not one to bear tales, but there has been talk that you are becoming too … too friendly with Lord Stannis. Some even suggest that you are … a …”
A rebel and a turncloak, aye, and a bastard and a warg as well. Janos Slynt might be gone, but his lies lingered. “I know what they say.” Jon had heard the whispers, had seen men turn away when he crossed the yard. “What would they have me do, take up swords against Stannis and the wildlings both? His Grace has thrice the fighting men we do, and is our guest besides. The laws of hospitality protect him. And we owe him and his a debt.” - Jon, ADwD
Later, Jon makes the same argument with Samwell, when he sends off a letter to King Tommen asking for help for the Watch.
“I gave Stannis food, shelter, and the Nightfort, plus leave to settle some free folk in the Gift. That’s all.”
“Lord Tywin will say it was too much.”
“Stannis says it’s not enough. The more you give a king, the more he wants. We are walking on a bridge of ice with an abyss on either side. Pleasing one king is difficult enough. Pleasing two is hardly possible.” - Jon, ADwD
When Marsh then argues about the danger of Stannis as a monarch who will most probably be defeated leaving them to face Lannister wrath - his reason for wanting to support Slynt - Jon makes the case that it may well be Stannis who ends up winning (In a call back to his own father Ned Stark at the Three Sisters at the start of Robert’s Rebellion)
“Lord Stannis helped us when we needed help,” Marsh said doggedly, “but he is still a rebel, and his cause is doomed. As doomed as we’ll be if the Iron Throne marks us down as traitors. We must be certain that we do not choose the losing side.”
“It is not my intent to choose any side,” said Jon, “but I am not as certain of the outcome of this war as you seem to be, my lord. Not with Lord Tywin dead. The lion in King’s Landing is a cub, and the Iron Throne has been known to cut grown men to ribbons.” - Jon, ADwD
In actuality, without the brothers knowing, Jon is choosing a side and helping plan Stannis’ campaign at the Wall. For two reasons - he wants the Boltons gone for personal revenge and he thinks that Stannis is right in that an united realm under one ruler is necessary to defend the Wall.
Jon realized that his words were wasted. Stannis would take the Dreadfort or die in the attempt. The Night’s Watch takes no part, a voice said, but another replied, Stannis fights for the realm, the ironmen for thralls and plunder. “Your Grace, I know where you might find more men. Give me the wildlings, and I will gladly tell you where and how.” - Jon, ADwD
Thus far Marsh, Yarwyck and co. go along with Jon’s explanations and orders even if they are not happy about it. Because Jon does explain matters to them as much as he is able. Which is why the ‘bad PR’ nonsense is so much bs.
However, by the time we get to the end of ADwD is when the Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch has decided to use an army of Wildlings to go attack the lawful Warden of the North for personal reasons i.e Arya. At that point, there is no straddling the line, instead, Jon has just torn up the NW rule book. As Joey Tribbiani says (Just imagine Bowen Marsh saying this to Jon Snow):
There can be no acceptable explanation for this that Jon can give Marsh and co, like he did earlier, other than I want to attack this bastard for threatening my sister. Even Jon acknowledges this:
Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them. It made no matter. He did not need them now. He did not want them. No man can ever say I made my brothers break their vows. If this is oathbreaking, the crime is mine and mine alone. - Jon, ADwD
Now of course all this is not to say that Bowen Marsh was right to do what he did nor is any of this meant to justify his actions. Only to give a perspective into why Jon’s plan to attack the Boltons is the straw that broke the camel’s back. What he and the other assassins did was clearly sudden and not planned - it happened in a courtyard surrounded by battle hungry Freefolk ready to go to war for Jon Snow. Surely they would know that this is not going to end well for them. In their minds they see this as an act to preserve the Watch.
Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He punched Jon in the belly. - Jon, ADwD
All this is also not to condemn Jon Snow for his decision. How could anyone not refuse to help someone they love when there’s a chance to save them? Others have done it, Maester Aemon has done it and yet Jon Snow fails. His decision leads to mutiny and chaos at the Wall at a time when an existential threat is almost at their doorstep. And yet his very human need to help save a much loved sister is also entirely understandable from his perspective.
He knows the Boltons are bad and cannot be trusted. He also cannot rely on them to help the Watch, an opinion that is no doubt amplified by their hand in the Red Wedding. That is why he’s so distraught over news that Arya is wedding Ramsay. He surely would agonize over it as much as he did if she was marrying some random Cerwyn or Tallhart. But she is to marry a monster and though Jon may not know the true extent of Ramsay’s moral depravity, what he does know is not very good.
The Boltons are the enemy and yes, Jon’s distress here is with Arya being forced into marrying the enemy against her wishes. I assume he would feel the same way no matter who she is being forced to marry considering how his thoughts are centered on Arya being a child and the lack of consent.
Jon could almost see her in that moment, long-faced and gawky, all knobby knees and sharp elbows, with her dirty face and tangled hair. They would wash the one and comb the other, he did not doubt, but he could not imagine Arya in a wedding gown, nor Ramsay Bolton’s bed. No matter how afraid she is, she will not show it. If he tries to lay a hand on her, she’ll fight him. By now she’d be eleven, Jon thought. Still a child.
He’d had Mikken make a sword for Arya once, a bravo’s blade, made small to fit her hand. Needle. He wondered if she still had it. Stick them with the pointy end, he’d told her, but if she tried to stick the Bastard, it could mean her life. - Jon, ADwD
And yet, Jon dithers and dallies and agonizes over helping even the person he loves most in the world precisely because of his oaths and the neutrality of the NW. It’s Arya!! That should tell us everything about how important it is to preserve the neutrality of an institution with members from different houses from all over Westeros for that institution to actually work effectively.
“I have no sister. Only brothers. Only you.” Lady Catelyn would have rejoiced to hear those words, he knew. That did not make them easier to say. His fingers closed around the parchment. Would that they could crush Ramsay Bolton’s throat as easily.
“You have not asked about your sister,” Melisandre said, as they climbed the spiral steps of the King’s Tower. “I told you. I have no sister. We put aside our kin when we say our words. I cannot help Arya, much as I—”
Dark dreams, he thought, and guilt. His thoughts kept returning to Arya. There is no way I can help her. I put all kin aside when I said my words. If one of my men told me his sister was in peril, I would tell him that was no concern of his. Once a man had said the words his blood was black. Black as a bastard’s heart. - Jon, ADwD
Precisely. Jon has a point here. There are Smallwoods and Stouts at the Wall as well, with their houses involved in the Northern conflict. What if one of them wanted to save a sister forced into marriage by another house? Would Jon be okay with that? What makes Jon’s situation any different to that of the other men who also have family and loved ones involved in war.
It took Melisandre giving him a way to secretly help Arya for him to do it. He does not help his father or Robb because of his oaths, abandons Ygritte, refuses Stannis’ offer of Winterfell. And yet…and yet this time, the Pink Letter is also the straw that breaks the camel’s back for Jon Snow and he decides to do something about Ramsay Bolton once and for all and save his sister. The consequences of which we will see in the next book if it ever comes out.
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