Let’s establish a few facts first. Kaplan wants to destroy Red and his relationship with Liz:
The bones in the suitcase will facilitate that - destroying Red and hurting Liz:
The name of the person whose bones Kaplan dug up has to be a name Tom recognizes. He looks shocked when he first sees the DNA results.
And he has a look of total disbelief below. But then - what? Now I get it.
And whoever has the bones has great power. Per Ian Garvey to Tom in E05x08
“Whatever you imagine the answer might be, it’s better than that. Reddington’s power is legendary. With this, I control that power.”
And in the scene below, it appears that Tom may have feared that Red would shoot him, because he knows how much the bones identity reveal could hurt Red:
One other note. Red sat on the bones suitcase when he was with Tom. That would be disrespectful and unlike Red if the bones were of someone Red cared a lot about.
So let’s go over some possibilities that are being discussed:
1) The bones are Red’s “other” daughter (ballerina girl, bubble girl). Problems:
Tom may not recognize the name. Even if he did, he would not be shocked. So what if Red has “another” daughter? And how would it hurt Liz? And why would Garvey want these bones? And why would Tom think Red would kill him over that?
2) The bones are a sister/brother/twin of Liz. Problems:
While Tom would be surprised over Liz having a sibling, he would not have a look of total disbelief (even if he recognized the name). Why would this hurt Liz and/or Red? And Garvey does not care about Liz (he left her to die) so he would not be interested in a sister/brother/twin. And no reason for Tom to worry Red would kill him over that.
3) The name of the person whose bones they are is well known, i.e. a world leader, head of the CIA, etc. Problems:
What would this have to do with Red or Liz? At first glance, it would not be very obvious. Whoever’s bones these are, Tom needed to tell Liz right away.
4) The bones are of Liz’s mother Katarina Rostova. Problems:
Tom and Liz already think she is dead so seeing her name associated with these bones would not shock Tom this much. And I doubt he would look up in total disbelief. And how would Katarina’s bones hurt Red? The DNA report does not say how she died, just identifies who she is. Red already told Liz that her mother died from committing suicide.
5) The bones are of the real Masha Rostova. Problems:
Yes Tom would be shocked but how would Liz not really being Masha Rostova hurt her? In fact she would be safer if she wasn’t Masha Rostova. And how would Elizabeth not being Masha hurt Red? And if this is what Red whispered to Kirk (Elizabeth is not Masha but your daughter Masha is dead) why would Kirk release Red over this? And how would these bones hold power over Red for Garvey?
6) The bones are of the real Elizabeth Reddington:
What if the bones are of Red’s only daughter and her name was Elizabeth? Tom would recognize the name and be shocked. And it would make Red’s statement to Kirk true “Yes, Elizabeth is my daughter”. And this would also mean that Liz is not Red’s daughter, but someone he is hiding by using his daughter’s ID. This is my second favorite theory (the last one being my favorite). Problems - Why would Garvey think these bones would give him power over Red? And Garvey did not know who Liz was, asking her what her name was so she does not seem important to Garvey at all. (”You must be the wife. What’s your name, darling?”)
7) The bones are of the real Raymond Reddington (which means Red is an impostor):
Would Tom be shocked? Yes
Would he show disbelief? Yes
Would this knowledge hurt Liz and possibly destroy Red and Liz’s relationship? Yes
Would the fact that Red was not found to be the real Raymond Reddington destroy him and take away his power? Yes
Would Ian Garvey feel that the bones of the real Raymond Reddington give him power over Red? Absolutely
Would Tom fear Red could kill him to prevent him from telling Liz that Red is not who she thinks he is, and in fact not her father at all? Yes
If Red whispered to Kirk that he is not the real Raymond Reddington, instead Red is xxxxx (perhaps someone Kirk knew) this could be enough that Kirk lets him go? Yes
In conclusion, out of the 7 possibilities I presented, only one meets all of the criteria, including why Garvey wants the bones and why Red would not care that he sat on the suitcase with the bones in them. The bones are of the real Raymond Reddington.
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