#bates wedding

[countingandsnarkingon]

I’m going to be honest, I totally forgot there was a fundie wedding this weekend and I couldn’t even begin to guess what it’ll look like because I feel like we know absolutely nothing about Jackson and Emerson as a couple

[duggardata]

There’s A New Mrs. Bates!

Nathan Married His Fiancée, Esther Keyes, On Friday

On Friday, October 22, 2021, Kenneth Nathaniel ("Nathan") Bates, 28, married Esther Joy Keyes, 24, at The Star Barn (Elizabethtown, Lancaster County, PA).  About 350 guests attended the over–the–top wedding, which included a poofy princess ballgown, a tiara, a horse–drawn carriage, and skydiving in lieu of the typical processional.  Fox News got the exclusive the next day, confirming the marriage and sharing the first professional photos.  The newlyweds told Fox—

“We have been so anxiously awaiting the day that we would become ‘Mr. and Mrs.’ for the rest of our lives, and it is finally a reality!  ... We know that the love and commitment involved in the vows we have spoken, the emotions and excitement we’ve already experienced together, and our faith in the Lord will be the most important foundation of our relationship, and we know we will remember our promises to each other forever.”

Read on for a full data analysis!

Relationship Recap

According to Esther, she and Nathan met “playing volleyball at a wedding after party.”  It’s unclear when this occurred, or whose wedding it was.  Regardless, they apparently began “talking” in Late 2019.  Nathan “officially” asked Esther to be his girlfriend in 2020, on her birthday (October 14).  (See Also.)  Then, he proposed on May 22, 2021 in Florida, and married her Exactly 5 Months Later, October 22, 2021, in her home state of Pennsylvania.

Nathan’s DOB is August 29, 1993.  He is the 5th of 19 Children.  Esther’s DOB is October 14, 1997.  She is the 9th of 14 Children.  Combined, they’ve got 31 Siblings, which is the record for Most Siblings For A Predictor Couple.

Nathan is from Rocky Top, Anderson County, TN, and Esther is from East Earl, Lancaster County, PA.  Apparently, they plan to settle in Tennessee.    

Effect On The Bates Data

Their Pre–Courtship Start Date is Unknown—so, there’s No Impact on Length of Pre–Courtship.

They courted for 220 Days (October 14, 2020 to May 22, 2021).  Before Nathan + Esther, the typical Bates Couple courted for 269 Days, so they were ahead of schedule by 49 Days (7 Weeks).  Factoring their data in, it is now Bates–typical for the Length of Courtship to be 263 Days (–6 Days).

When Nathan + Esther became “official” (October 14, 2020), Nathan was 27.13 Years Old, while Esther was Exactly 23 Years Old.  (It was her birthday.)  Before this, the typical Bates Male began courting at Age 22.83, and the typical Bates Female began courting at Age 20.56.  Factoring Nathan + Esther in, the typical Age At C.S. For Males shifted to Age 23.22 (+143 Days), and the typical Age at C.S. for Females shifted to Age 20.78 (+81 Days).     

Nathan + Esther were engaged for a total of 153 Days—May 22 to October 22, 2021.  Prior to Nathan + Esther, the typical Bates Engagement lasted 125 Days.  (Theirs was slightly longer—28 Days Longer, to be exact.)  Factoring their data in, it is now Bates–typical for the Length of Engagement to be 129 Days (+4 Days).  This is due to shift again in December due to Katie + Travis’s Wedding.  When we factor Katie + Travis in, a typical Bates Engagement is 141 Days.

Finally, Nathan + Esther have an Age Gap of 4.13 Years (1,507 Days), with him being older.  Excluding Nathan + Esther, a Bates–typical age gap is 2.28 Years (831 Days), and the male is older in 10 of 12 Relationships (83.3%).  Factoring Nathan + Esther in, your Bates–typical Age Gap is now 883 Days (+52 Days), and the male is older in 11 of 13 Relationships (84.6%).  (Note—This includes Gil + Kelly Jo and Failed Courtships.)

Procreative Potential

Esther’s Mother, Lisa (Zwolinski) Keyes, was born on December 2, 1962.  Lisa’s 14th and Final Child (Jason) was born on April 29 or 30, 2007.  At the time, Lisa was Age 44.41.  This age becomes Esther’s Fertility Cut–Off.  (Note—It’s a fairly late Fertility Cut–Off!  The default is Age 40.00.  Michelle Duggar’s Fertility Cut–Off was Age 43.24...  Kelly Bates’s was later, though, at Age 45.27.)

With such a late Fertility Cut–Off, Esther still has a Total Marital Fertility (TMF) of 7,446 Days (~20.4 Years), despite not being a teenage bride.  (And, it’s good she wasn’t!  Just so we’re all clear on that...)  Here’s how her TMF compares to her mother’s, Kelly Jo’s, and the 2nd–Generation Bates Couples—

Michaela (Bates) + Brandon Keilen   7,119 Days

Zach + Whitney (Perkins) Bates   7,221 Days

Nathan + Esther (Keyes) Bates   7,446 Days

Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine   8,314 Days

Tori (Bates) + Bobby Smith   8,502 Days

Katie Bates + Travis Clark   8,805 Days

Gil + Kelly Jo (Callaham) Bates   8,810 Days

Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart   8,820 Days   

George + Lisa (Zwolinski) Keyes   9,228 Days   

Alyssa (Bates) + John Webster   9,398 Days

Josie (Bates) + Kelton Balka   9,532 Days

Among just 2nd Generation Bateses, the Average TMF is 8,360 Days (or, ~22.9 Years); however, it varies by a Standard Deviation (SD) of 892 Days.  Compared to this, Nathan + Esther’s TMF is 914 Days (1.02 SD) below average.  Assuming a normal distribution, that theoretically puts their TMF in the 15th Percentile.  In addition, Esther’s TMF is less than both her Mother and Mother–In–Law (MIL)...  Compared to her Mom, hers is 1,782 Days (4.9 Years) Less.  And, compared to her MIL’s, Esther’s TMF is 1,364 Days (3.7 Years) Less.

That said, Nathan + Esther still have time to have plenty of children.  Assuming they follow the Bates data, their ESOQ is 15 Children.  (Wow!)  So...  Low TMF or not, they’re more than capable of having a big family by any standard.

When To Expect Bates–Keyes #1

Currently, it’s Bates–typical for a couple’s Firstborn to arrive just 315 Days After their wedding.  (That’s ~10.3 Months.)  This varies by a Standard Deviation (SD) of 39 Days.  Thus, assuming a normal curve, 68% of Bates Firstborns are born within 276–354 Days (±1 SD), and 95% arrive within 237–393 Days (±2 SD).  It’s Bates–typical to announce a pregnancy at 101 Days Along (14 Weeks, 3 Days), and deliver 8 Days Early.  

If Bates–Keyes #1 is exactly Bates–typical—arriving 8 Days Early on Day 315, after being announced at 101 Days Along—here’s what we can expect...

Baby News   March 15, 2022

Due Date   September 10, 2022

Birthdate   September 2, 2022

If Nathan + Esther are 1 SD Early, Bates–Keyes #1 would arrive July 25, 2022.  (Due Date August 2, 2022 and Baby News February 4, 2022.)  If they’re 2 SDs Early, Bates–Keyes #1 would arrive on June 16, 2022.  (Due Date June 24 and Baby News December 27, 2021.)

If Nathan + Esther are 1 SD Late, Bates–Keyes #1 would arrive on October 11, 2022.  (Due Date October 19 and Baby News April 23, 2022.)  If they’re 2 SDs Late, Bates–Keyes #1 would arrive November 19, 2022. (Due Date November 27, 2022 and Baby News June 1, 2022.)

Nathan + Esther will beat the Bates record for Fastest Marriage to Firstborn if Bates–Keyes #1 arrives on or before June 28, 2022.  (Currently, Carlin + Evan hold the record at 251 Days).  They’ll beat the record for Slowest Marriage to Firstborn, among current Bates Parents, if Bates–Keyes #1 arrives on or after November 3, 2022.  (Currently, Gil + Kelly hold the record at 377 Days.)

Congratulations to the newlyweds!   

[fundamental-cactus]

According to Tiffany’s IG stories tonight, she just finished her last paper of her master’s degree. The timing of their engagement makes so much more sense now. She can now move into full time wedding planning (because apparently that is a full time job for fundies?)

[spudandhashbrown]

Screenshot from Esther’s IG stories. Looks like the Nesther wedding will feature a (getaway? arrival?) carriage and/or helicopter haha

[bae-tes]

My current/updated dress rankings (because apparently this is what I do with my life).

Jinger - look, it was a bit ridiculous and there was a lot going on, but the dress was modest fairly naturally and had that fantastic picture-perfect quality. Plus I really do like OTT ballgowns.

Carlin - beautiful skirt, lovely lace and bodice. I just love how poofy the skirt is when she did that first ever first dance.

Abbie - I love this underrated classic. Beautiful silhouette, classic, well-tailored (yes this seems to be difficult) and the modesty didn't ruin the dress.

Lauren - not a dress I would wear personally but clearly not a rehash of another fundie dress and the fit was mostly good, if a little loose. Lost points for the rear modesty panel and her long hair covering the gorgeous back.

Jessa - pink prom dress, maybe, but gorgeous and I like that it was untraditional. Plus the line of the dress is lovely. Boring hair.

Kendra - look, I like this dress more than I reasonably should. It's incredible and I never thought a dress could literally embody a person until this one. Is it would someone 3, 5 or 10 years older would have picked? Probably not. Boring hair.

Tori - nice silhouette but ever so slightly too baggy (I expect to maintain modesty standards?) I liked the lace and the slightly off-white colours.

Claire - I like the boho look and think I like this dress more than several people but that awful modesty panel on an already modest dress looked stupid and the dress just didn't seem to fit properly.

Joy - there's nothing wrong with this dress but I just don't particularly care for it. Points knocked for the sleeves ending in a strange place and the bodice being strange to me and the patterns all seeming to just blur out. Raggedy hair.

Josie - unpopular placing, I know. I didn't like the bodice, it felt like it swallowed Josie's tiny frame whole and the lace neckline coming out of the neckline of the main dress didn't work for me. Just not a fan. Skirt was nice enough. Poor hair.

Whitney - oh the modesty panel and the awkward shape of the dress.

Anna - t-shirt dress. Oh goodness, the t-shirt dress. But at least it's a plain t-shirt dress. Bad hair.

Alyssa - the sleeves were just tacked on! It looked like a child wearing a top under their mother's wedding dress.

Jill - worse than Anna's to me because it's a fairly normal dress made 10x worse with awful modesty alterations. The alterations do not blend or mesh with the original bodice and it just looks bad. Boring hair.

Michael - just... the t-shirt UNDER a normal dress doesn't feel like it's compromised on anything but worsened both options. Wear a t-shirt dress. Or don't. Don't use different material to make a fake t-shirt layer.

[theotherdatablog]

The Duggar/Bates/Maxwell/Morton Wedding Gap Post

As requested by @throwrocksatboys and @fundieinsider, and because why not, here is the master list of weddings for the families having data run on them by Tumblr blogs! Credit to @duggardata​ for starting this off, and to their Anon for having the idea.

In chronological order ---

First to Marry: 1/26/02 Nathan + Melanie (Maher) Maxwell

+ 1533 Days: 4/8/06 Alan + Katie (Morton) Smith

+ 147 Days: 9/2/06 Michael + Kressant (Smith) Morton

+ 371 Days: 9/8/07 Wesley + Rachel (Smith) Morton

+ 384 Days: 9/26/08 Josh + Anna (Keller) Duggar

+ 659 Days: 7/17/10 Noah + Dorothy (Morton) Sanders

+ 98 Days: 10/23/10 Chris + Anna (Hamilton) Maxwell

+ 406 Days: 12/3/11 Cleve + Lisë (Kendall) Morton

+ 700 Days: 11/2/13 Chad + Erin (Bates) Paine

+ 42 Days: 12/14/13 Zach + Whitney (Perkins) Bates

+ 161 Days: 5/24/14 John + Alyssa (Bates) Webster

+ 28 Days: 6/21/14 Derick + Jill (Duggar) Dillard

+ 77 Days: 9/6/14 Joe + Elissa (Frost) Maxwell

+ 49 Days: 10/25/14 Tayte + Martha (Morton) Alexander

+ 7 Days: 11/1/14 Ben + Jessa (Duggar) Seewald

+ 287 Days: 8/15/15 Brandon + Michaela (Bates) Keilen

+ 42 Days: 9/26/15 Andrew + Kennedy (Decker) Morton

+ 182 Days: 3/26/16 Sam + Alyssa (Campana) Morton

+ 224 Days: 11/5/16 Jeremy + Jinger (Duggar) Vuolo

+ 202 Days: 5/26/17 Austin + Joy (Duggar) Forsyth

+ 105 Days: 9/8/17 Joe + Kendra (Caldwell) Duggar

+ 99 Days: 12/16/17 Bobby + Tori (Bates) Smith

+ 14 Days: 12/30/17 John + Chelsy (Bontrager) Maxwell

+ 182 Days: 6/30/18 Josiah + Lauren (Swanson) Duggar

+ 97 Days: 10/5/18 Kelton + Josie (Bates) Balka

+ 29 Days: 11/3/18 JD + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar

+ 0 Days: 11/3/18 John + Campbell (Roberts) Morton

+ 203 Days: 5/25/19 Evan + Carlin (Bates) Stewart, upcoming

In gap length order ---

0 Days: JD + Abbie to John + Campbell (same day!)

7 Days:  Tayte + Martha to Ben + Jessa

14 Days: Bobby + Tori to John + Chelsy

28 Days: John + Alyssa to Derick + Jill

29 Days: Kelton + Josie to JD + Abbie/John + Campbell

42 Days: Chad + Erin to Zach + Whitney and Brandon + Michaela to  Andrew + Kennedy

49 Days: Joe + Elissa to Tayte + Martha

77 Days: Derick + Jill to Joe + Elissa

97 Days: Josiah + Lauren to Kelton + Josie

98 Days: Noah + Dorothy to Chris + Anna

99 Days: Joe + Kendra to Bobby + Tori

105 Days: Austin + Joy to Joe + Kendra

147 Days: Alan + Katie to Michael + Kressant

161 Days: Zach + Whitney to John + Alyssa

182 Days: Andrew + Kennedy to Sam + Alyssa and John + Chelsy to  Josiah + Lauren

202 Days: Jeremy + Jinger to Austin + Joy

203 Days: JD + Abbie/John + Campbell to Evan + Carlin

224 Days: Sam + Alyssa to Jeremy + Jinger

287 Days: Ben + Jessa to Brandon + Michaela

371 Days: Michael + Kressant to Wesley + Rachel

384 Days: Wesley + Rachel to Josh + Anna

406 Days: Chris + Anna to  Cleve + Lisë

659 Days: Josh + Anna to Noah + Dorothy

700 Days: Cleve + Lisë to Chad + Erin

1533 Days: Nathan + Melanie to Alan + Katie

Removing the big outlier at 1533 Days, the average gap considering all of these couples is 184 Days. The median is 147 Days. 

That places the next possible wedding in one of these families, using the average, at 184 Days after Carlin’s wedding on November 25, 2019. The 25th is a Monday, so the closest likely wedding day is November 23, 2019. Using the median, the next wedding would be on October 19, 2019 (a Saturday).

Cool questions!

[duggarbatesfan]

Josie Bates with her bridesmaids, sisters Alyssa Webster and Carlin Bates, sister-in-law Whitney Bates, her almost sister-in-law Ariana Balka and her friends,

Source: Ariana Balka’s Instagram

[fashionoffundies]

A picture of all the groomsmen and bridesmaids. Seems like Josie went for different dressed for each girl but with the same colour scheme, allowing for some individuality! I kind of love it?