The big racing weekend is here, with a total of 11 stakes races including
the Kentucky Derby on Saturday and the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. In this
post I will focus on the undercard races for both days, and post separately
about the 2 big races.
Be aware that I will edit and update my posts as conditions present
themselves.
Also I will not use Brisnet's 'track bias' stats for reference for either
day. Usually I wait until a racing meet is 2 full weeks old before there are
reliable patterns.
Friday's featured races at Churchill starts with the La Troienne
Last year's Oaks runner up St. John's River has best pedigree befitting a
winner at Churchill (Include-Adventurous Di). Longest distance win belongs
to Maristar, who won at 1-3/16 at Wolverhampton (UK) in 2010. Plum Pretty is
running consistently in Graded stakes races,with 3 at the top Grade 1 level
over the last year. She ran twice at Churchill, and won last year's Oaks.
Her best Brisnet # came in her other race here, a Grade 1 event last
November, scoring a 103. Best overall pace belongs to Love Theway Youare,
with a dead closing style,tho hasn't won a race in about a year.
Top 3 selections right now are Plum Pretty (ML fave), Love Theway Youare,
and Maristar (longest shot of this 7 horse field).
EIGHT BELLES STAKES
Volcat has best dosage numbers (After Market-Kentucky Whisper) for
Churchill. Xunlei has the long distance race win of the field, 7 furlongs
last time out, at Tampa Bay 4 weeks ago. My Due Process has the best recent
win of this field, tho not a Graded win, it was a 125k futurity race last
September. Good Deed is 1-for-1 at CD, winning an optional-claim 75k
fillies race, and scoring a field-best 97. Good Deed also sports best form
of the field, improving on that 97 with a 98 in her last race, the 75k
Primadonna at Oaklawn Park last month. Could bounce from that number tho as
she had improved sharply off a 66 race prior to it. Fastest horse to her
runstyle here is Small Kitchen, an early/pressing type, running all 3
lifetime races at Fair Grounds, wide trip in 2 of them, but quick 2nd call
numbers.
Selections: Good Deed, Small Kitchen, My Due Process. The first 2 are
morning line faves. Probably not much value to this race.
EDGEWOOD STAKES is the one ungraded stakes I'll play this day. Koko Loca,
the lone alternate-entry, has the best dosage (Kodiac-Pure Folly) of this
field. Should she not get to run, I'd give the dosage edge to Dame Marie
(Smart Strike-Crystal Crossing). Disposablepleasure and Goldrush Girl both
won at 9 furlongs,the former in a Grade 2 race in November, the latter in a
maiden race in October. Stephanie's Kitten thoroughly impresses here. She
won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf for fillies on this track (101 Brisnet),
along with a Grade 1 race prior to that. She seems the fastest of this
group, winning races off the pace. She's been first or 3rd in all 6 lifetime
starts. No horse presented itself with major edge via form. Miz Ida came
close but after forging a new top in her last race, a 75k stakes event in
March, I decided against her.
Top selections right now are Stephanie's Kitten-Disposablepleasure-Goldrush
Girl.
UPDATE (Friday noon) With today's pre-race scratches, selections are now Stephanie's Kitten, Goldrush Girl, Koko Loca,
ALYSHEBA STAKES:
Colizeo has best pedigree (Distorted Humor-Colony Band) and is 2-for-4 at
CD. Fort Larned comes up a win in the Grade 3 Skipaway Stakes, a 1-3/16
distance, longest distance win of this field. The only horse with a Grade 1
victory here is Successful Dan (love the name), winning the Clark Handicap
on this track last fall. Plutonium, one of the sure outsiders, actually has
the fastest Brisnet number at CD, winning an 80k optional-claim race,
scoring a 104.
Fastest pace goes to dead closer Golden Yank, in the money last 3 races, all
at sharp value, real dangerous horse here. Looking at form: Fort Larned is
the one who is outstanding here, as he had slightly broke through his 3YO
best number (99) 2 races back on March 3, in a 60k race. As mentioned, he
scored the 110 after that, tho I'm believe he will turn out a number
somewhere in between, enough to win this race. Yes, he could bounce off that
lifetime best number but I will give the benefit of the doubt here.
Selections: Fort Larned, Golden Yank, Plutonium. Predicting large value win
for this race.
AMERICAN TURF STAKES
Best pedigree for Churchill wins in this field belongs to Look At The Time
(Brahms-Alashir). Two horses have won at 9 furlongs in this field: Howe
Great, whose last race was a 5th place showing in the Blue Grass Stakes, and
also-eligible Scorcher who broke his maiden in a 35k maiden race in
December. Howe Great (Transylvania) and Silver Max (Palm Beach) have the
only Graded stakes wins in this field. Just one horse has run on Churchill's
turf course, that being rail horse Coalport, finishing 11th in last year's
BC Juvenile Turf. Fastest horse here is the early-pressing Gung Ho, buoyed
by a 3rd place finish in the Blue Grass. None of the horses have a decided
edge in form.
Selections: Gung Ho, Coalport, Howe Great.
KY Oaks analysis, horse for horse, in the next post.
