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Dallas gets a PPV and it’s a great one: UFC 211 Preview

Joey

May 8th, 2017

The first half of 2017 has been all about ups and downs for the UFC. The free TV events have been for the most part acceptable even though they've lacked the sizzle to their events (as evidenced by not bad but not good ratings for most of their FS1 events and a few clunkers on FOX). On PPV, the story has been a lot tougher as bad cards lived up to bad billing, even if on paper I thought 208 had some fun aspects to it, and good cards either suffered injuries or were hampered by things out of the company's control. 209 was a great card that ended with an all time bad main event plus the loss of its co-main event while 210 had weird as hell fights, a perplexing main event, crazy judging and some even crazier refereeing. It's been a mess and as such, UFC 211 is being welcomed with open yet skeptical arms. This card actually reminds me a lot in some ways of UFC 146 from way back in the day. That year business was slow for the company and so they turned to an all heavyweight main card to inject some life into the UFC. It was a really great show and for a while, we could all forget about how utterly bumpy the road was and amuse ourselves in the rise of a new heavyweight phenom in Junior Dos Santos. Ironically enough, JDS rides into town during another bumpy as hell year to challenge for the title opposite Stipe Miocic. The main card for UFC 211 is arguably perfection from a matchmaking standpoing as all five fights are well matched fights pitting strength vs strength. All five fights could headline their own UFC event which is the sign of a great main card. Prelims are more than adquate as well and in some cases VERY very good, namely in the prelim headliner.

Fights: 14

Debuts: 4 (Rashad Coulter, Jared Gordon, Michel Quinones and David Branch)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 1 (Jarjhis Danho/Dimitro Poberezhets turned into Dimitri Pobereezhets/Chase Sherman turns into Chase Sherman/Rashad Coulter)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 10 (Joanna Champion, Stipe Miocic, Junior Dos Santos, Jorge Masvidal, Demian Maia, Frankie Edgar, Yair Rodriguez, Henry Cejudo, Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 2 (Chase Sherman, Henry Cejudo)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 11 (Stipe Miocic, Joanna Champion, Jessica Andrade, Demian Maia, Jorge Masvidal, Yair Rodriguez, Segio Pettis, Chas Skelly, Jason Knight, Kryzstof Jotko, Marco Polo Reyes)

Stat Monitor for 2017:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 11-10)- Rashad Coulter, David Branch

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 6-10)- Rashad Coulter

Second Fight (Current number: 11-14)- Gadzhimurad Antigulov, JessicaAguilar

Twelve Precarious Ponderings:

1- The first fight for JDS and Stipe Miocic is well and truly a classic worth going out of your way to see. The first four rounds were really great shit and the last round is sort of disappointing but both guys were absolutely gassed out so forgive them. Miocic's boxing was worlds better than JDS for the first two (and IMO three) rounds but then Miocic just absolutely gassed out and JDS was able to pour the pressure on and rely on his superior conditioning, heart and fight IQ to wear out Miocic. In rewatching the second fight though, I noticed a few things that paint perhaps a more compelling picture in the rematch. For starters, there's a sequence in the second round where JDS is able to find a combination which gets the respect of Miocic. From then on, JDS is able to pop the same combination over and over and Miocic starts trying to wrestle him. The more you wrestle JDS, the more tired you get unless you're Cain (and even Cain Velasquez was exhausted at the end of their third fight in the troilgy). JDS has insane balance for a big man and Miocic is sneaky deceptive----but it is worth pointing out that Moicic has not had a fight leave the first round since the Dos Santos fight. JDS went five rounds last April even if it was kind of sort of a sparring exhibition.

2- IF you're picking JDS in this fight, you're gambling on two things. 1) The fact that Miocic hasn't had five tough rounds and has shown vulnerability against big punchers who combo well and 2) the HOPE that Dos Santos vs Rothwell was not one of those "the candle burns brightest before it goes out" moments where a fading fighter finds himself for one last big hurrah before the cliff hits. Otherwise there's no reason why the less shop worn, more athletic, more versatile fighter (Miocic's wrestling still exists even if he doesn't use it for a single god damn thing) who hits just as hard and KO'd the dude who KO'd THIS dude should be the loser. The problem is that vs Rothwell, JDS was everything you'd wish for him to be and then some. He looked quick on his feet, versatile with his strikes, powerful with his jab and most of all he seemed to be pulling the trigger again.

3- Who is the #1 contender AFTER this? There's Overeem/Werdum and I'm not sure I'd go that route. After a series of fresh HW title fights (Werdum/Cain, Werdum/Miocic and Miocic/Overeem), going winner vs winner here inevitably sets up a rematch of some kind. Francis Ngannou is sitting out there amassing wins and looking awesome but any of those four guys represents a massive step up and the only one I'd comfortably say Ngannou would beat is Overeem due to the whole Overeem so-so chin and Ngannou being quite possibly the hardest hitting HW since Shane Carwin. Derrick Lewis would be fun as shit if he beat Mark Hunt but man, I do NOT want to see Lewis/Werdum or Lewis/Miocic where Derrick has to shuck off 40 takedowns. In a perfect world, Cormier vs JDS would be a lot of fun but I think Cormier would retire before he'd move back up to HW.

4- The co-main event feels like a fight where there's a realistic chance for an upset even if nobody wants to discuss it. On paper this is a stylistic dream fight, two really tough really powerful women with differing styles (Joanna more of a symphony of violence, Jessica Andrade more like thrash metal) where if anyone is going to get to Joanna, it's the fighter who can pressure forward and put all kinds of smoke and team on her shots. I don't know if Jessica has one punch finishing power but I would argue she hits harder at 135 lbs and possesses the better submission game. The one thing I keep coming back to is Joanna's style and how over her last 3-4 fights, there's been some cracks showing. Against Valerie Letourneau, the few moments Val had came when she would pressure and blitz Joanna. She didn't win the fight but she had a few moments where you coulf see something could be done there. Vs Claudia Gadelha, Joanna had a REALLY tough time early dealing with the pressure AND power of Claudia. Gadelha put her down at one point (twice even if I remember correctly) and who knows where the fight goes if Claudia doesn't gas out going for takedowns. Against Karolina K, Joanna didn't seem as aggressive, didn't seem to press the issue with power shots as often and even was hurt REALLY badly by someone I would not consider to be a powerful striker. There's something going on here and Joanna's comments about maybe retiring and her long term health plus the scares she'd had in her past two fights paint a picture of something bigger. The rumors of her going to ATT and not being particularly well recieved raise a few concerns as well, I guess. I dunno there just seems to be a lot happening with Joanna that leaves room for doubt.

NOW is Jessica Andrade the fighter to beat her? I mean....it's hard to imagine someone who twice went life and death with Rocky Pennington winning the title from the most dominant female champion going currently. It's also hard to imagine this fight heading into the 4th or 5th rounds with Andrade not having a serious cardio disadvantage working against her. Also Joanna's kicks are the best Jessica has seen pretty much ever and so while I don't always go Joe Rogan on leg kicks, they're bound to have an advantage. I just think if anybody is going to beat Joanna Champion, this is the gal and this is the time for it. There's some smoke here.

5- If Yair Rodriguez KOs Frankie Edgar (or just beats him decisively), would that justifiably make Yair the #1 contender for the winner of Holloway-Aldo? Even over Cub Swanson who has two wins in high profile fights and is on paper as popular as he's ever been?

6- Man imagine a Mexico even with Yair fighting for the FW title and Brandon Moreno challenging for the flyweight title. That'd be fuckin' cool.

7- I went back and briefly looked at Demian Maia's shortcomings/weaker performances at welterweight. The two consistent refrains is that Maia can be stalled out on the ground (or perhaps he stalls you out from attempting any offense and can just stay on top) and his cardio in some of those fights, specifically ones where early on he has to really fight for takedowns, can lead to openings. Matt Brown DID have Maia bothered in the second half of their fight before Maia just snatched his neck and put him to bed---but Maia did take some shots in the process. Masvidal is REALLY hard to take down and even tougher to keep down. On the other hand, Masvidal is not a guy well known for turning up the heat late. I know pace and tempo are like boilerplate MMA terms but Masvidal IS the perfect example of a guy who controls pacing, tempo and has superb timing. The third round if it gets that far is going to be very interesting.

8- Sergio Pettis beats Henry Cejudo (by whatever way you so desire), does Pettis get the "record" shot vs Mighty Mouse or is that still Ray Borg's gig?

9- On paper I'd argue that Cejudo/Pettis and Alvarez/Poirier should be switched but Eddie has been SO quiet since the McGregor thrashing that I wonder if there's maybe some concern about his focus. The prelim headliner is still a BIG spot but it's obviously a lot more low profile than PPV main card. Whatever the case may be, I bet that fight is going to be badass while it lasts. Also shout out to Dustin Poirier for fighting like three months ago on one leg then turning around and taking a MASSIVE step up.

10- The Fight Pass fight of all fights pits SportsSoundoff hero Gabriel "Moggly" Benitez vs TheAntiCool's BFF Enrique Barzola. Mexico vs Peru! Moggly Benitez was once thought of to be one of the better fighters off of TUF Latin America Season One and while he is still 2-1 despite running into the leg of Andre Fili (no shame in that), he's probably been a step behind the likes of Marlon "Chito" Vera, Yair Rodriguez and Teco Quinones. He's a good fighter who probably has some untapped potential the more he trains with the likes of AKA. On the other hand, Enrique Barzola is a REALLY good, really raw young fighter with unlimited athletic potential and a developing fight game. He should be undefeated in the UFC but que sera sera and all that good stuff. Barzola's wrestling is surprisingly good for a fighter discovered off of TUF LAM and his striking is unorthodox, really funky and seems to be improving each time out. Enrique Barzola should be the favorite but I refuse to believe that Moggly won't have a shot.

11- We all like to bitch and banter about the UFC's LHW division but this is yet another show in a string of them where they're trying to churn the bottom of the roster. Similarly the same could be said with a HW as well with a new HW in the mix. Injury replacement and all but still!

12- Gotta admit I totally forgot about Jessica Aguilar and how good she is.

Must Wins:

Junior Dos Santos

Of the two big names in the main event, I feel like JDS has the most to lose here with a loss. Let's not entirely mince some words here; this is almost a gift title shot. He's getting the shot because someone has to fight Miocic and Cain/Werdum are both in the UFC bad books for two vastly different reasons. Rothwell was a damn good win given the streak he was on and so it's not like JDS didn't earn some semblance of a title shot. Even that being the case, Dos Santos' last seven fights consist of wins over Frank Mir, Cain twice, Mark Hunt, Overeem, Miocic and Rothwell. He's 4-3 and he wasn't entirely competitive in those losses. That being said, he's got a chance here. Miocic is hittable, his moments of greatness oftentimes coming out of brief glimpses of frailty. In glimpses JDS has the ability to remind you of why once upon a time he was the no doubt about it best HW in the world. If he loses to Miocic, you'd essentially have to acknowledge that if he's a top 5 HW, 3 of his contemporaries in that mix have beaten him.

Frankie Edgar

At just 24 years old, the 145er and 155ers of the UFC will be dealing with Yair Rodriguez for a long time. He's going to challenge for plenty of belts and as his physical maturation combines with Greg Jackson in his ear, Yair Rodriguez will almost certainly be a face for the UFC. There's no pressure on Yair here. Frankie Edgar is one of those fighters stuck in no man's land. The scene at 155 lbs has grown to the point where Edgar's herky jerky quirky stylings and in and out movement can't carry him the way it used to. At the same time, he's had two swing and a misses at Jose Aldo and the last one wasn't quite as competitive as we all hoped it'd be. He's 35 years old, on the last fight of his deal and he's the kind of guy the UFC has been losing/letting go recently. The sort of guy who is a TV draw but not a PPV draw who has essentially maxed out his value. Edgar vs Yair is the battle of good young fighter who might be great against the great old fighter who might be slowly dropping towards good. Edgar is far and away the greatest wrestler Yair has ever faced and conversely, Yair Rodriguez is really the most dynamic athletic that Edgar has faced. No, I don't think he's as good as Aldo but Yair does so many other weird, wacky and wild things that he essentially combines the "I don't give a fuck" of Cub Swanson with the versatility of Aldo. Edgar wins this fight and he's got two wins in a row likely looking at a bigger payday and he PROBABLY sneaks his way back into talks as a name for 145 lbs again or even 135 lbs if he finally commits to that drop in weight. A loss and maybe the UFC views a 35 year old Frankie Edgar as a guy on the downslide who can no longer beat the elites, isn't going to fight for the title and may not be worth six figures for them anymore.

Demian Maia

There's a section of UFC fans who think Demian Maia is a draw and he's really not. His TV numbers aren't great, I don't think Maia is a guy who draws people to the venue and he exits to be what I believe most insiders would refer to as card dressing. Having said that, the 170 lb landscape is KIND OF in the midst of some upheaval and so if Maia's ever going to get that title shot, the opportunity has to be now. He's won what feels like 10 fights in a row and his wins are over the likes of Carlos Condit, Neil Magny, Gunnar Nelson and Ryan LaFlare. He gets a surprisingly difficult puzzle to figure out; a low output striker who rarely misses his shots, rarely gets taken down, might be impossible to submit and has found some power since he moved up to 170 lbs. It's a fight Maia should win that presents some stylistic challenges for an aging BJJ maestro with so so cardio but arguably the stickiest grappling in MMA. We recently saw a similar minded aging BJJ maestro struggle vs a a guy who presented stylistic challenges who rarely gets taken down and has found his power after moving up in weight. I don't know if the ending will be the same but there's no question that there are some similarities in these two movie scripts.

Five Underlying Themes

1- Will there be more consistency in the three person commentary booth or are we doomed to more at times awkward at times stilted bro convos between Rogan and DC?

2- This is the best card of the year but I'd almost argue UFC 208 had more buzz to it. Will this card pick up as we get closer and realize this fight is FINALLY happening?

3- Texas has a well earned rep for shitty judging, even worse reffing and just general commission wackiness. Are we in line for another night of madness?

4- How will the crowd respond to Yair Rodriguez, a budding star to be, in his biggest fight ever?

5- Will we get any UFC 213 or UFC 214 announcements?

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