#derek tran

[gwydionmisha]

Democrat Derek Tran ousts Michelle Steel in CA House battle

The battle for the Orange County district turned harshly personal in the closing weeks of the campaign.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

The Incredible Shrinking GOP Majority

Two critical House seat flips out in California along with self-sabotage could doom Republican hopes for massive, destructive legislation.

Jay Kuo at The Status Quo:

There’s great news out of California about the election. Yes, the election! Votes are still being counted in California in two tight House races. Democrat Derek Tran leads his opponent, the very Trumpy and scandal-plagued Michelle Steel in CA-45, and is expected to prevail. Some have already called the race for him based on which votes remain to be counted and the direction things have consistently gone. In CA-13, the closest race in the country and against most expectations, Democrat Adam Gray just pulled ahead by around 182 points and is now also slightly favored to win.

As Rep. Robert Garcia noted, if this holds, California will be a bright spot in this election: Democrats will have held every seat in the state’s congressional delegation while flipping three Republican ones. [...] While such claims are nonsense, the right does have some cause to be upset by the actual results. Assuming these races wind up adding two more seats to the Democratic side, the GOP House majority will be 220 to 215, the narrowest House majority ever to begin a session. And that spells a world of trouble for Speaker Mike Johnson.

[...] On the contrary, the extended counting period is specifically designed to lessen the possibility of fraud.

[...]

Counting votes, California style

California can sometimes seem too laid back and chill, especially as it makes the rest of the nation await the final outcome of an election that happened more than three weeks ago. And yet, votes are still coming in, so what gives? Does the far right have a point here? No, as usual, they don’t. The claims of fraud are easily debunked and fact checked. California is one of the few states that mails ballots to all registered state voters. And it has a very liberal ballot return policy: Ballots may arrive up to a week after Election Day, in this case November 12, so long as they were postmarked by Election Day. But what accounts for the next 10 days of delays in the final count? It’s all about verifying signatures. Republicans are constantly demanding that mail-in ballots be perfect in every way, and they have gone to court to enforce this. They must be aware that with mail-in ballots, voters’ signatures may fail to match what the county has on file for them. This happens often with older voters who have trouble writing their names, or even with younger voters who are more used to signing digitally using their index finger rather than a pen. Given this issue, California decided that rather than throw out those ballots, it would provide voters additional time to “cure” any defects on them. There are armies of volunteers in these counties whose job is to personally contact voters whose ballot poses an issue and urge them to come in and cure the problem. With limited staffing, this process can take weeks. It’s usually a few hundred or even a few thousand ballots from each county, and in a normal race that wouldn’t make much of a difference. But in the case of CA-45 and CA-13, it makes all the difference in the world. In sum, the process can take weeks because

California mails ballots to all registered voters;

Mail-in ballots often have issues such as non-matching signatures; and

The state provides an opportunity for voters to cure defects.

It’s not fraud. It’s a careful effort to prevent fraud, while not disenfranchising any registered voters due to a clerical issue.

[...]

If Tran and Gray win as expected, the House will technically be at 220 to 215, the narrowest margin since 1930. But remember: Matt Gaetz resigned his seat after being nominated as Attorney General, and he isn’t coming back after flaming out. He has joined George Santos and Rudy Giuliani among the disgraced politicians who are selling videos to fans on Cameo, the Only Fans for fallen D.C. officials. That means in the first few weeks, assuming full attendance, the balance will be 219 to 215. With these numbers, Republicans can only afford to lose one vote on any measure. If they lose two, the count goes to a 217 to 217 tie, meaning it fails. That is going to make for an interesting Speaker vote at the start of the session. Johnson’s position is so weak, he will likely have to concede significant power to the far-right once again, including handing out plum committee positions that would allow extremists to control the agenda.

But wait, there’s more! Trump genuinely freaked Johnson out earlier by naming two other House members, Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) to positions in his administration. Johnson reportedly had to beg him to stop poaching GOP House members, or he’d outright lose his majority. With Gaetz’s resignation and the loss of two House seats until they can be filled by special election, the balance of power will be 217 to 215 for many weeks. Assuming full attendance, that would mean any single GOP member could sink any bill assuming the Democrats unite behind House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). That’s a lot of power to give the congressional bomb throwers on the right. And it will make passing much of Trump’s agenda really difficult if not impossible, including extension of the Trump tax cuts for the wealthy; gutting the ACA, Social Security and Medicare; and authorizing billions of dollars to build mass detention centers for undocumented migrants. This underscores how every single vote counts, and how the hard work of volunteers out in CA-45 and CA-13, who doggedly pursued voters to come cure their ballots, could pay huge dividends. If they remain disciplined, House Democrats could use the GOP’s own narrow margin against it to block the very worst of the far right’s wrecking ball agenda.

Assuming the Democrats flip CA-13, the GOP House majority would be threadbare, and could spell bad news for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA)’s hopes to pass bad bills. This is also due to some of the GOP majority resigning to take other jobs in the Trump Administration.

[tomorrowusa]

A little bit of good news. Democratic challenger Derek Tran has nudged ahead of of GOP incumbent Michelle Steel in the race for US representative from CA-45.

With 93.7% of the votes counted in CA-45, Tran is ahead by 36 votes. On Friday he was 236 votes behind Steel and a week ago he was 6,128 votes behind. So things are moving in the right direction.

While it's true the Republicans will have control of the House, the margin makes a big difference. Things currently stand at 218 Republicans and 212 Democrats with 5 uncalled races including the Tran/Steel match-up.

Here are the 5 uncalled races.

My thoughts about these...

AK-01 — Peltola/Begich — pessimistic

CA-13 — Gray/Duarte — 50-50

IA-01 — Bohannan/Miller-Meeks — somewhat pessimistic

CA-45 — Tran/Steel — somewhat optimistic

OH-09 — Kaptur/Merrin — optimistic

So best case scenario, including a Dem win in CA-13, would leave the House 220 R – 215 D. That would mean we would need just 3 pro-democracy Republicans to defect on procedures and bills tp prevent Trump's most dictatorial tendencies. And with Matt Gaetz (apparently) not taking his seat in January, Republicans would temporarily have just 219 seats.

So keep your fingers crossed for those remaining contests!

[trendynewsnow]

The Political Battle for Little Saigon: Michelle Steel vs. Derek Tran

The Political Battle for Little Saigon Representative Michelle Steel is engaged in one of the most challenging political contests of her career, as she navigates a crucial swing district in Orange County, California. In this vibrant region, where Vietnamese American voters wield significant influence, Little Saigon has emerged as the epicenter of her campaign. Ms. Steel, a two-term Republican…

The Political Battle for Little Saigon: Michelle Steel vs. Derek Tran

[timesofupdate]

Will a Vietnamese-American candidate help Democrats win a congressional seat in Little Saigon? | The Times Of Update

At a solemn gathering in Orange County, dozens of elderly Vietnamese Americans recently gathered to reconnect with others formerly held at Suối Máu, a camp where dissidents and American allies were imprisoned after the fall of Saigon. Amid the sea of ​​gray hair and faded military uniforms, one younger face stood out: Derek Tran, 43, a Democrat running for Congress. The 45th Congressional…