TOP 25 CURRENT FIRST BASEMAN
#1 Joey Votto
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TOP 25 CURRENT FIRST BASEMAN
#1 Joey Votto
Fantasy Baseball 2011 - Early Rankings: 1B Edition
There's no denying that 1B is easily the deepest position. As a rule of thumb I try to avoid top tier first basemen, as I believe that it's very easy to get an equal, if not slightly lesser player for a much better value in later rounds. Let me go ahead and demonstrate that by sharing my early 1B rankings for 2011
Note: I've excluded players that probably belong in other positions, ie. the 1B/Catchers, etc.
DAN'S TOP 15 FIRST BASEMEN FOR 2011
1. Albert Pujols 2010 Stats: 115 R / 42 HR /118 RBI / .312 BA / 14 SB There's really no need for me to defend this ranking, as Albert Pujols is the epitome of consistency in all fantasy sports. He contributes immensely in every category, and the past couple of years he's even been running a bit. Of course, there is the potential of his contract interfering with his play this year, but if he hasn't signed, he'd likely play better rather than be hindered.
More after the jump.
2. Miguel Cabrera 2010 Stats: 111 R / 38 HR / 126 RBI / .328 BA / 3 SB He's probably the closest thing to Albert Pujols without being Albert Pujols. The scariest thing is that he could possibly be better--very, very soon. Everyone seems to forget that Miguel Cabrera isn't even 28 years old yet, so it's very likely that we haven't seen the best of him yet. You'd kinda wish that the offense around him would be better and that he would be in a more hitter-friendly park, but even so, his numbers are certainly fine as is.
3. Joey Votto 2010 Stats: 106 R / 37 HR / 113 RBI / .324 BA / 16 SB 2010 was the season everyone had been waiting for from Joey Votto, but I'm a little hesitant to completely buy into it, given that it's only been a one-year deal. Granted, as I said, the potential's always been there and there's still room for improvement, but if I were to rank players overall, I would be hesitant to put Votto in my Top 5. Of course, Top 10 is still fantastic, but just be a little cautious with your expectations for Votto.
4. Adrian Gonzalez 2010 Stats: 87 R / 31 HR / 101 RBI / .298 BA / 0 SB Adrian Gonzalez's career stats in Petco Park feature a .263 BA, .440 SLG%, and 61 HRs. Adrian Gonzalez's career stats on the road feature a .303 BA, .568 SLG%, and 107 HRs. As we all know, Adrian Gonzalez is not only no longer playing in Petco, but he's also playing in Boston with a real offense and a small park, which, by all logic, should make his numbers go up significantly. There is the argument that being in the AL East also means he's going to be facing "better" pitching, but the NL West certainly isn't a slouch with rotations like the Giants and the Dodgers. I'd say on a value basis, Adrian Gonzalez certainly has the most upside of all of the 1Bs, but also don't forget he had shoulder surgery this offseason as well.
5. Mark Teixeira 2010 Stats: 113 R / 33 HR / 108 RBI / .256 BA / 0 SB When Mark Teixeira started 2010 off slow, everyone wrote it off as being typical. "He has such monster second halves that his first couple of months don't matter." But he never really got it going, and his numbers--for a top-tier first baseman--were pretty lackluster. Granted, he still had a good season outside of his batting average, but that's certainly not what you expect from Mark Teixeira. However, I can't really rank him any lower than this because almost all of this second tier of first basemen had the same exact problem last season, but of all of them, I'd expect Teixeira to have the best chance of returning to form.
6. Prince Fielder 2010 Stats: 94 R / 32 HR / 83 RBI / .261 BA / 1 (huh?) SB Just a really bizarre year for Prince Fielder, who, after arguably his best season, completely dropped off in every single category for seemingly no reason. I would have to imagine that it has something to do with his nearing free agency, but that's honestly a shot in the dark. With this year being his last year of arbitration, however, I'd expect Prince to put on a show to try to net him a Ryan Howard-sized contract, but last year's decline really does worry me.
7. Ryan Howard 2010 Stats: 87 R / 31 HR / 108 RBI / .276 BA / 1 SB Like the others in this range, Ryan Howard went from a monster season to a very plain one for seemingly no reason. Granted, Howard is the oldest of this group at 31, but that still isn't that old, and while 31 homers is no laughing matter, it was almost a 30% decrease in power from his career norm (Fielder had similar decline, but he hasn't had a career of 40+ consistency like Howard). Oddly enough, his batting average was relatively good, so maybe in an effort to strike out less (157--a career low in full seasons) he lost his power stroke. I can't explain it, and I'd expect some sort of return to form, but if there's any one of the 5-7 group that I'd have to say is at the beginning of his decline, it's Howard.
8. Justin Morneau 2010 Stats: 53 R / 18 HR / 56 RBI / .345 BA / 0 SB Justin Morneau was easily on his way to a second MVP season when he suffered a nasty concussion midway through the season and was out for the rest of the year. This certainly isn't anything unusual for Morneau, who's always had trouble staying totally healthy, but it also makes him difficult to rank coming into this year. If I had a guarantee that he'd be healthy for the whole year, he'd be in the Top 5 1Bs easily, but the problem is that there's no guarantee. It's a shame, too, because the Twins continue to improve around him, yet if he's not healthy, he can't capitalize.
9. Kendry Morales 2010 Stats: 29 R / 11 HR / 39 RBI / .290 BA / 0 SB Kendry Morales had a breakout season in 2009, and then continued this breakout by breaking his leg after jumping on home plate. Luckily, it happened so early in the year that he'll have plenty of time to recover for the 2011 season, in which we can probably expect the same kind of production he had in 2009: 30 or so homers, good production numbers, and a solid batting average. Not very much upside, but a very solid pick.
10. Adam Dunn 2010 Stats: 85 R / 38 HR / 103 RBI / .260 BA / 0 SB Adam Dunn is...well, Adam Dunn. There isn't a whole lot about him other than ~40 homers, 90+ RBIs, and a mediocre-average BA. That literally describes any given year of his career, and I don't expect that to change with his move to the White Sox. Granted, they're a much better offense than the Nationals were, and US Cellular is a notorious home run park, but somehow I don't think that really affects Dunn. He'll get his numbers--maybe a slight uptick in the production categories--and that's that.
11. Paul Konerko 2010 Stats: 89 R / 39 HR / 111 RBI / .312 BA / 0 SB After putting together a very mediocre 2008 and 2009, Paul Konerko was essentially left for dead, but he came back to have arguably the best season of his career. I liked Konerko a lot last year as well as this year from a value standpoint, but I have him ranked lower than Adam Dunn simply because, quite frankly, he's getting old, and you can't expect 2010's production again. Can he do it again? Sure, but not likely. It's much more reasonable to expect him to put up Kendry Morales kind of numbers with a lower batting average.
12. Billy Butler 2010 Stats: 77 R / 15 HR / 78 RBI / .318 BA / 0 SB When will Billy Butler's breakout year come? Probably not until he gets out of Kansas City, or at least not until the Royals get some other kind of offense besides him. Until then, he's a very solid option that you can grab later in drafts, but even if he does break out this year, don't expect him to be hitting in the upper 30s for homers. He's still young and could very easily develop power down the road (he's only 24--kinda reminiscent of Kevin Youkilis), but for now, draft him with the intention of getting his great batting average.
13. Aubrey Huff 2010 Stats: 100 R / 26 HR / 86 RBI / .290 BA / 7 SB I don't think I totally buy Aubrey Huff's 2010 season. He's shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but those moments have also been surrounded by a good bit of mediocrity, including a 2009 that's better left forgotten. It's important to remember that he used to be good, and while last year was a great season for him, it was also slightly blown out of proportion by the Giants' overall success. That said, if he puts up a similar season to last year, then he'll be a great value that might go overlooked in drafts.
14. Carlos Pena 2010 Stats: 64 R / 28 HR / 84 RBI / .196 BA / 5 SB Carlos Pena put together an absolutely terrible year, and while there was still production there, a sub .200 batting average is just unacceptable. He needed a change of scenery, and Chicago might be a good fit for him. He'll most likely be the every day first baseman in a hitter-friendly park--not to mention a much easier pitching division. Most people have probably forgotten about him, but if you're looking for cheap power with some upside, Carlos Pena is a great pick.
15. Adam LaRoche 2010 Stats: 75 R / 25 HR / 100 RBI / .261 BA / 0 SB A lot of people forget about Adam LaRoche, but frankly, he's very forgettable just because he's so average. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, though; like the other Adam (Dunn), he's pretty much a shoe-in for a 70/20/70/.260 season. Surprisingly he put up 100 RBIs last year in an underwhelming Diamondbacks offense, and while the Nationals aren't really that much better, they aren't any worse that he couldn't have similar production. I put LaRoche in over the rookies and sophomores like Gaby Sanchez and Ike Davis solely for his consistency.
MLB Network is ranking the top 10 First Basemen Right Now...
While watching I pondered the questions myself. "Drafting a team for just 2011, who would you want right now?" I made up my list kinda roughly looking over some numbers, if I sat down and put more time into my list might change, but I think it's a pretty good list. Credit to MLB Network for getting it most right.
My List:
10. Billy Butler
9. Paul Konerko
8. Kendry Morales
7. Justin Morneau
6. Prince Fielder
5. Mark Teixeira
4. Adrian Gonzalez
3. Joey Votto
2. Miguel Cabrera
1. Benny Agbayani
But seriously, duh, Pujols is the best.
Ryan Howard isn't on my list, he was on MLB Network's list. Ryan Howard is one of the most overrated players in the league, he's on the border of maybe cracking the list.