Recall that the 2005 bestseller Freakonomics made a huge splash with the claim that Roe v. Wade was responsible for the drop in crime America experienced starting in the 1990s. The theory, simplified for space, was that fewer unwanted babies began to be born after 1973. These aborted babies did not turn 18 in 1991, and accordingly did not commit crimes, leading to the dramatic drop in crime experienced in the 1990s.
It turns out that the study on which the Freakonomics authors based their chapter on abortion and crime was authored by none other than Jonathan Gruber (and others). In their 1998 paper, Gruber and his co-authors concluded that “we find that for the marginal child not born due to increased abortion access, the odds of living in a single parent family would have been roughly 70 percent higher, the odds of living in poverty nearly 40 percent higher, the odds of welfare receipt 50 percent higher. . . . From these results, we estimate that the legalization of abortion saved the federal government over $14 billion in welfare payments through 1994.”