Today I'm going to share a few of the reasons why I think Froststar will be leader. I firmly believe the books have been building up to this and that any other choice will feel random and unsatisfying as a conclusion to the arc.
However, I believe the fact that there has been so much debate is intentional on the authors' part. They are deliberately being coy about it so as to not give the surprise away. I think this is part of why Froststar is being dismissed, because you'd think they would treat her a bit differently if she was the choice to become leader. But I believe such arguments are not substantial enough to firmly deconfirm her as future leader.
In the first book, River, Frostpaw outright balks at being leader. She doesn't want to be and the responsibility it entails scares her. This represents how she was never destined for a greater role in the Clan: she just had the greatness thrust upon her, like Spider-man. This is called out directly in the Thunder prologue:
But Frostpaw is destined for great things now. Fate has been rewritten, however much heartbreak it cost, and the fate of RiverClan now rests in her paws.
This doesn't directly imply anything about her becoming leader, of course, but it does tell us that the Frostpaw we started out with has changed! And I disagree with the notion that this implies she has to be a medicine cat. Medicine cats are messengers, yes, but I think the fact Riverstar uses such a vague term like "messenger" in the first place is curious. I also don't see why she can't temporarily be RiverClan's messenger and later become something more. Sure, RiverClan needs Frostpaw to be their messenger now, but he's not implying Frostpaw has to be that messenger forever.
I also think it's generous to imply the StarClan cats know who the leader should be yet. It's very well possible they don't, and that they just know the cat who will choose the leader and some qualities such a leader should have. StarClan works in mysterious ways after all and time and time again they've been shown to know about as much as the Clan cats.
But the biggest issue for a lot of people is that RiverClan would be left without a medicine cat that has a connection to StarClan, and I sympathize with this a lot. My issue however is that, if Frostpaw magically gained powers, then why can't they find another cat? I know it's a lazy answer but I don't see why this issue can't be worked around. I also don't see why we can't explore other options like Frostpaw still maintaining a medicine cat's role as leader. It's unconventional of course but Froststar in itself is unconventional.
There's also the fact that RiverClan didn't have a cat like Willowshine for a while. It's far from ideal circumstances but the Clan still managed without a medicine cat with a connection to StarClan for a period of time.
But these aren't the only reasons I think Frostpaw will become leader. I think there have been great hints throughout the last two books, Thunder and Wind.
For one, Frostpaw goes to the Park Cats and learns the ideal qualities to look for in a leader--as well as who shouldn't be leader, the cat she learns killed Reedwhisker. Frostpaw's ideal qualities in a leader are awfully specific too, almost like they're things only Frostpaw could really enforce. Unless a cat happens to start showing these qualities in Star, Frostpaw is realistically the only one who can change the Clan the way she wants to change it. Like it or not, Frostpaw will be taking on a leadership role if she wants any of this to actually happen.
This is practically Frostpaw's political manifesto. Unbeknownst to her, however, she is literally describing the perfect leader for RiverClan to be herself.
I also think the fact that Frostpaw is the first cat in RiverClan to openly reject Splashtail is key to her both gaining support and also coming into her role as leader. Frostpaw...isn't the best choice for leader yet, simply put. But she is getting there. She is rallying support for her cause to defeat Splashtail, an important quality in a leader. She fully intends on taking him down and restoring RiverClan to its former glory--no, even better. She has a crystal clear vision for what she wants RiverClan's future to be and I don't think any other cat in the Clan so much as comes close to the leadership qualities Frostpaw is displaying now. Once she defeats Splashtail I envision that she will finally complete her arc and become the leader RiverClan needs.
I also want to point out this random dream from Bee, which I think is great Froststar foreshadowing:
Here is my interpretation: the frozen river symbolizes a RiverClan lead by Froststar. I believe the ice being thick is meant to show the strength of RiverClan under Froststar's leadership. The river being frozen so thoroughly also represents a safe bridge to outsiders. The sting of the ice represents how RiverClan still maintains the ferocity appropriate of a Warrior clan, and that it will defend its borders when needed. However, they do not react with hostility to all outsiders. They are curious, perhaps even interested in the knowledge the outsider may impart on them, like how Frostpaw learned a new way of life from the Park Cats.
This is all just speculation of course but I think this line is intentional foreshadowing on the writer's parts and I don't think it's safe to completely dismiss it yet.
We also cannot ignore scenes like Riverstar literally choosing Frostpaw over Splashtail at the Moonpool.
Obviously this scene is meant to show Frostpaw has StarClan on her side, but this scene also shows clear symbolism foreshadowing a Froststar leadership, if you choose to read it as such. While you can just as easily interpret it as Frostpaw being the true medicine cat instead of Podlight, you can't help wondering if that could imply she's meant to be leader instead of Splashtail, too.
To conclude, I do think there's still a chance Froststar might not be leader, but I can't say any evidence to the contrary has been sufficient enough to change my mind or have me leaning towards any other potential options. I do think it's possible Frostpaw can inspire the change she wants in RiverClan as a medicine cat, but given the lack of other suitable options for leader it's difficult to imagine. Again, I wouldn't be shocked if one of the other characters starts displaying leadership qualities in the final book, Star, but I simply don't think it would hold the same narrative satisfaction of Frostpaw becoming leader.
Also, just...come on. She's literally front and center on the cover of Star. The foreshadowing for Froststar is off the charts right now. Don't sleep on my girl just yet!
