Frozen Conflicts and Quiet Settlements: Why Some Wars Suddenly Stop
For much of modern history, wars were expected to end loudly. Treaties were signed, borders redrawn, flags raised, and victories declared. The world learned to recognize the rituals of closure: peace conferences, televised handshakes, Nobel Prizes, and sweeping diplomatic language about “a new chapter.” But in today’s geopolitical landscape, something different is happening. Across the world,…
The Decline of Frozen Conflicts and the Rise of Managed Cooperation
For much of the modern era, peace was often defined by what did not happen. Guns fell silent, borders hardened, and negotiations dragged on indefinitely. This uneasy calm — widely known as a “frozen conflicts” — became the accepted norm in many regions of the world. It was a peace without reconciliation, stability without trust, and survival without progress.
Nowhere has this reality been more…
Shifting Geopolitical Landscapes: The Resurgence of Frozen Conflicts
Geopolitics is often best understood as a delicate equilibrium — a balance of expectations, power, and capabilities. When this balance is disrupted, it can result in chaos and instability. This theme has been a recurring focus in recent discussions, and the examples continue to accumulate. It’s becoming increasingly evident that…
Турция и "карабахский сценарий" деоккупации Грузии: ставим крест на путинском Закавказье (Turkey and the "Karabakh scenario" of the de-occupation of Georgia: putting an end to Putin's South Caucasus)
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Автор: anti-colorados Понятно, что этот не просто положительный, а блестящий опыт деоккупации своих земель после тридцати с лишним лет бесплодных, и как теперь понятно – вредных переговоров, привлек внимание всех, кто имеет подобные проблемы и кто ищет пути их разрешения. (Author: anti-colorados. It is clear that this is not just a positive, but a brilliant experience of de-occupation of their lands after more than thirty years of fruitless and, as it is now clear, harmful negotiations, attracted the attention of everyone who has similar problems, and who are looking for ways to resolve them.)
P.S. Very good and interesting comment! While Europeans were busy watching events in Geneva, Turkey and Azerbaijan inked Shusha Declaration to boost ties on defense cooperation. Now, Georgia is looking for opportunities to establish bilateral allied relations with Turkey as well...
Conflict conservation in Ukraine’s east follows the Transnistria model
Conflict conservation in Ukraine’s east follows the Transnistria model
[box]“Frozen” is a Western mischaracterization of Russia’s protracted conflict undertakings against Moldova in Transnistria, against Georgia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and now of the desired end to Russia’s intervention in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas.
Those conflicts never “froze” in a political sense—not even after the cessation of active hostilities in Moldova in 1992, in Georgia by fits and…
#act power thursdays: Russia, frozen conflicts, and separatism
A Ukrainian border post, viewed through bullet holes in a truck's windscreen. Lugansk, June 2014. (Reuters)
Dear all, I apologise for posting this so late - Brexit happened...so today is no longer Thursday, but I am still looking at borders, walls, and barriers on my blog. My ongoing case study in creative statecraft, Russia, is providing an interesting angle on this week’s theme: The use of frozen conflicts - keeping borders forever undefined - and/ or of separatism - potentially altering national borders - as power tools to guarantee regional influence over Russia’s neighbourhood.
Please find below a couple of links on the use of frozen conflict by Russia.
Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria and Abkhazia and South Ossetia, now eastern Ukraine - Euractiv’s dossier on frozen conflicts (the photo above is from this article).
Jens Malling in Le Monde Diplomatique explores Russia’s skillful use of the not-quite independent territory of Transnistria - to prevent Moldova from joining the EU and NATO.
Foreign policy probes the curious case of separatism appearing every time a Russian neighbour is becoming too reform-minded.
And lastly, Konstantin Fischer for IMR explores the risks the Kremlin runs in openly encouraging separatism.