#gulf stream

[diemelusine]

The Gulf Stream (1899) by Winslow Homer. Metropolitan Museum of Art.

[rjzimmerman]

Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds

Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout

Excerpt from this story from The Guardian:

The collapse of a critical Atlantic current can no longer be considered a low-likelihood event, a study has concluded, making deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions even more urgent to avoid the catastrophic impact.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system. It brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. The Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis.

Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later.

The research found that if carbon emissions continued to rise, 70% of the model runs led to collapse, while an intermediate level of emissions resulted in collapse in 37% of the models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an Amoc shutdown happened in 25% of the models.

Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50cm [about 20 inches] to already rising sea levels.

The new results are “quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of Amoc collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%”, said Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who was part of the study team. “Now even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%.

“These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk assessment where even a 10% chance of an Amoc collapse would be far too high. We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding as well and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions.”

Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past. “Observations in the deep [far North Atlantic] already show a downward trend over the past five to 10 years, consistent with the models’ projections,” said Prof Sybren Drijfhout, at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, who was also part of the team.

“Even in some intermediate and low-emission scenarios, the Amoc slows drastically by 2100 and completely shuts off thereafter. That shows the shutdown risk is more serious than many people realise.”

The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, analysed the standard models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The scientists were particularly concerned to find that in many models the tipping point is reached in the next decade or two, after which the shutdown of the Amoc becomes inevitable owing to a self-amplifying feedback.

[peaceinthestorm]

Max Ernst (1891-1976, German) ~ Le Gulf Stream, 1954

[Source: Christie's]

[gamer2002]

So, shouldn't we pump out more greenhouse gasses and counter this with global warming?

[swede1952]

Good morning. 🌊🐚☕

18 March 2026

I think I’ll let Charlie take me for a walk this morning so we can breathe some fresh air and get a little exercise. We’ll wait a couple of hours and let the outside warm up first. The temperature usually rises through the day until two or three o’clock, then it drifts back down again like a gentle wave. Usually is the key word — when the temperature starts falling in the middle of the day, something is happening in the atmosphere. Most likely a cold front rolling in from the north.

I used to understand these things a bit better, thanks to a few college classes, but that was a long, long time ago. Still, I remember enough to know that a cold front coming from the south would be a bad omen, especially since I live about eighty miles north of the Gulf of Mexico. That’s where the warm waters feeding the Gulf Stream begin their journey up the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. On the other side of the country, the California Current runs south from British Columbia, carrying much colder water. If you’ve ever dipped your hands in both oceans, you know the difference immediately — the Atlantic feels almost warm compared to the chill of the Pacific.

Those currents do a lot to shape our weather. I wish I could recall more of the details of the country’s physical geography, but the simple truth is this: disrupting those currents would be a very bad thing.

Hmm… another morning where my mind wanders wherever it pleases, even if it leads me into waters deeper than I can swim.

“In every walk with nature one receives far more than he seeks.” — John Muir

“We never know the worth of water till the well is dry.” — Thomas Fuller

“I am still learning.” — Michelangelo, at age 87

[mindblowingscience]

Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

A new analysis has concluded that the Gulf Stream is definitely slowing, but whether it's due to climate change is hard to tell.

The Gulf Stream is almost certainly weakening, a new study has confirmed. The flow of warm water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with grave implications for the world's climate.  The ocean current starts near Florida and threads a belt of warm water along the U.S. East Coast and Canada before crossing the Atlantic to Europe. The heat it transports is essential for maintaining temperate conditions and regulating sea levels.  But this stream is slowing down, researchers wrote in a study published Sept. 25 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.  "This is the strongest, most definitive evidence we have of the weakening of this climatically-relevant ocean current," lead-author Christopher Piecuch, a physical oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, said in a statement.

Continue Reading

[18thcenturythirsttrap]

Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds

Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout

Capitalism and its refusal to reduce carbon emissions will kill us all, if we don't stop it very soon.

[inkstainedpalettes]

Inktuneber Day 11

In The Woods Somewhere - Hozier

One of my favorite tracks from him tbh, I just love the eerie vibes. Wasn't it based off of a weird dream he had once? Anyways, perfect spooky woods palette for all your spooky woods palette needs.