2013: Year of the financial super-storm
Article edited & published on Real Business 03/01/2013 http://realbusiness.co.uk/p/16906
There's nothing new under the sun: except the Internet. As we move into 2013 it's beyond dispute that the Internet, the web and now social media have changed our lives and our societies forever. We are hyper-connected - and it changes everything.
Like it or not globalisation has reached a new peak. It's now dawning that the 'masters' of this new 'universe' who wrested the controls away from governments have ditched us in a sea of debt and fully expect the populace to bail out the wreckage. Directed and marshaled by the governments they over-rode. So that they can return to business, and bonuses, as-usual.
As president Obama wrestles on the brink of the 'Fiscal Cliff' that holds at least as much imminent danger for the world economy as the USA's our Eurocrats have grown somehow used to the rolling crisis throughout the Eurozone. Not so much 'under control' as inured to the danger. Used to the procession of stories ranging through suicide to strife and unrest wrought by the minor deity 'Austerity'. Rending of the social fabric and the disintegration of whole communities.
The devastation brought by super-storm Sandy is as nothing to the first truly global financial super-storm - the first stages of which we are living through. But what comes next is up to... who?
Tectonic though these forces are they are not 'forces of nature'. They can be controlled and directed. Truly global disaster can be averted. But not by business-as-usual.
Which is why we must draw a careful distinction. There remains much, barely suppressed, anger with the banks and the bankers. It's palpable. Their status in society has never been so low. Where once a proud parent would have glowed to relate that their offspring was a rising star in Canary Wharf now it comes out as worrying and as something approaching an admission of faulty parenting. Not without reason. It's hard to think of a bigger betrayal of a whole society - no, whole societies - by a cadre within in all of human history.
But this is not the point. The bankers have told us that the time for recriminations is over. It galls me to say it but they're right. Now is the time for action not recriminations It's time to put our anger to productive use. It's time to sidestep the banks and - as the CBI have so aptly put it - find a 'new normal'.
The problem now is not what the banks have done - it's what they are doing, and not doing. Put aside the sheer predatory self interest that allows them to think they can return to their desks, rebuild their balance sheets at our expense, (thanks to 'Merlin', 'Funding-for-lending' and all the rest) while drawing their accustomed performance-proof bonuses. Bonuses also, in effect, at our expense. Leave aside also aside the fast rising corp of 'the working poor' in the UK - and the responsibility they bear for this and more, having pillaged the economy.
It's about what happens next. About the fact that they clearly expect that oodles of PR, and perhaps a few tussles with parliamentarians will be enough to right 'perceptions' and so their gravy boat. That we will be sufficiently distracted by bickering about whether the retail-banking ring-fence should be 'electrified' or not to seek real change.
But real change is our only hope. While we continue to wrangle with these discredited captain-sensibles of commerce we waste our energy and our chances.
The answer lies in the future, not the past. The unthinkable has, and is, happening around us and to us. UK PLC is being returned to Victorian times, with it's poverty, greed, waste and squalor. So it's time to think the unthinkable. To make the banks, as we know them, irrelevant. To put those tectonic forces to work.
Banks were created and are licensed to lend by creating credit. To fuel the growth of society and the economy. They played that role, more or less, until this century. They have ceased to play it. They use the banking licenses, handed to them for one purpose, for their own enrichment alone. This badly needs addressing but, again, is not the point.
So who can turn this around? If the banks want business-as-usual and the governments are powerless to resist them who can make change happen?
The answer is in the future, not the past. We can. Ask Starbucks. Ask those who were on the staff of The News of The World. Was it government that changed - or in the latter case halted - business-as-usual? No. It was the focused anger of the hyper-connected crowd.
The answer lies in the future. According to NESTA (and I have written about it here too, some months ago) 2013 will unleash a new wave of Internet disruption here, and around the world. It's already happening and clearly measurable, in actual millions and projected billions - with a rate of growth that leaves even previous 'disruptions' in the dust. I call it Alt-Finance. Crowdfunding is at it's core but it goes beyond that.
It offers a new alternative - a new, more democratic, co-operative way to save, lend and invest. With or without a bank. A way to also have more, or less, involvement with the projects and businesses funded. To have a say in what gets funded. A way for the people - the market - to speak clearly and unequivocally. To support and collaborate. To exclude the agenda of the gatekeepers who's own enrichment is their first (and often only) priority.
It's being resisted. Well 'no surprise there then'. Turkeys never vote for Christmas. But Canute always gets wet feet. This is a global phenomenon and will happen around the world anyway. But if we are to avert the worst of what threatens to be a global financial 'nuclear winter' we need to act - to make the most of it, as soon as humanly possible.
It will change our world. It's already forming the future. Now is the time to find out how - and to understand how it will affect you, your family and your business. It's time to learn and to act. To combine your own protection and advancement with that of the rest of society. This is the future.
(C) Copyright Barry E James, Dec, 2012
Follow @BarryEJames on twitter