#keilen 1

[duggardata]

As of now who’s the next Duggar or Bates to announce a pregnancy? I’m betting Josie for the Bates and Jessa for the Duggars.

When to Expect:  The Next Pregnancy Announcements

As of March 26, 2020, Predictor 2020 expects that the next couple to publicly announce a pregnancy will be…

The Duggars   Jill + Derick Dillard  (June 10, 2020)

The Bateses   Michaela + Brandon Keilen  (April 2, 2020)

The Maxwell   Chris + Anna Marie Maxwell  (December 21, 2020)

The Kellers   Nathan + Nurie Keller  (February 10, 2021)

The Bontragers   Carson + Carolina Bontrager  (May 27, 2020)

Note that Jill + Derick, Michaela + Brandon, and Carson + Carolina are all ‘late’ to announce, so we’ll see what happens with that.  Also, Anna Marie is dealing with her breast cancer diagnosis, currently...  There’s a good chance that that’s going to slow her and Chris down, at least a bit.  (Hopefully.)

[duggardata]

who is the first grandduggar and first grandbates to arrive in 2020 according to the predictor?

For the Duggars, Duggar–Burnett #1 in mid–March 2020.  For the Bateses, it’ll be Keilen #1 in January 2020.  If not the Keilens, then Smith #2 in March 2020.

[duggardata]

If Brandon and Michael NEVER have ANY children, what impact would this have on the total number of predicted grandchildren that the Bates's will have?

What If:  The Keilens Never Have Children?

Good Ask.  The Predictor doesn’t incorporate a couple’s child spacing data ‘til they actually have a child.  So...  If Michaela + Brandon never become parents, that would actually have less of an effect on the overall data, than if they had a baby several years into their marriage.  (That’s because if, say, they had a baby after 5 Years, their Marriage–to–Child 1 spacing of ~1,825 Days would factor in and skew the overall spacing data.  As is, their long delay is having no effect at all, and it would continue not to have an effect if they never have a child.)

Because of this, if the Keilens never had a child, the only impact—the only data impact, at least—would be a slight decrease in the number of Third–Generation Bateses.  Specifically, 5 Less GrandBateses, since that’s the number Michaela + Brandon are currently expected to have.

[duggardata]

When do you think each bate who hasn't had a kid yet will have their first baby? (Ex. Baby Smith November 2018)

When To Expect The Bates Firstborns  (As of May 31, 2018)

Here’s what the Predictor thinks, for Bateses in relationships—

Keilen #1   March 2019   (We’ll see…)

Smith #1   October 31, 2018   (Due date is speculative, though.)

Stewart #1   December 2019      

Balka #1   January 2020   

… and Bateses who aren’t—

Lawson’s #1   January 2021

Nathan’s #1   August 2020   

Trace’s #1   August 2022

Katie’s #1   March 2023   

Jackson’s #1   August 2027   

Warden’s #1   December 2028

Isaiah’s #1   April 2030   (Maybe Jenni Duggar’s #1, too?!)   

Addie’s #1   July 2028

Ellie’s #1   October 2029

Callie’s #1   January 2032

Judson’s #1   March 2036

Jeb’s #1   August 2037

Curious how the Predictor comes up with estimates for single and non–courting age Bateses?  This Ask explains it!  (It’s an older Ask, so it’s technically referring to Predictor 1.0.  Now we’re on Predictor 2.1, after a brief stint w/ 2.0…  But, all the Predictors use the same method for non–courting Bateses and Duggars, so it’s still relevant!)  Note that, as of May 31, 2018, the Bates baselines (averages) are—

Age At Courtship   23.51  (Males)   |   20.41  (Females)

C.S. to Engagement   236 Days

Engagement to Marriage   105 Days

Marriage to Child #1   400 Days

Child Spacing   492 Days   (Includes all children, even Firstborns.)

Fertile to Age   45.27  (Bates Daughters)   |   40.00  (Bates DILs)

Spousal Age Gap   3.09 Years  (Male Older)  (What is this used for?)    

For more GrandBates (and GrandDuggar) predictions, see this Post.  Also, you can search through the archives for #grandbateses (or #grandduggars).