Hey, I want to know, if hypothetically the married girls used birth control like Michelle did before #1 and had him/her the same time after marriage as she did, would Jill have a baby already and Jessa would be expecting or did I calculate it wrong (I was always bad at maths so don't mind me:D) What about Joy/Jinger?
What If: Every Duggar Waited As Long As J.B. + Michelle to Have Their First Child?
Jim Bob + Michelle married on July 21, 1984, and had Josh on March 3, 1988. That’s a 1,321–Day Delay to Child 1. If every Duggar Couple took an identical amount of time to produce Child 1, only Josh, Jill, and Jessa would be parents, as of July 2018. Here’s when each couple’s Firstborn would’ve arrived—
Mackynzie May 9, 2012 (IRL—October 8, 2009)
Israel February 1, 2018 (IRL—April 6, 2015)
Spurgeon June 14, 2018 (IRL—November 5, 2015)
… and here’s when the other Firstborns would be expected—
At–A–Glance: Who Was In Each Duggar and Bates Bridal Party?
Let’s talk Duggar and Bates bridal parties! For this Post, ‘bridal party’ is defined to include the Best Man, the Maid (and/or Matron) of Honor (MOH), groomsmen (GMs), bridesmaids (BMs), flower girls, and ring bearer. Ushers don’t count, nor do the couple’s parents—unless they’re also BMs or GMs. When counting BMs and GMs, the MOH is a bridesmaid, and the Best Man is a groomsman.
After the jump!
FYI—Stay tuned for a follow–up to this Post, calculating the typical bridal party size (for Duggars or Bateses), and a bunch of other analysis! (At the request of several Anons... Sorry it’s taken so long! Had to do research.)
Duggar Bridal Parties—Joe (2017) to Josh (2008)
Joe + Kendra | September 8, 2017
Kendra’s MOH was her younger sister, Lauren Caldwell, while Joe’s Best Man was his younger brother, Josiah Duggar. Kendra’s 11 Bridesmaids included—
Kendra’s little sister, Olivia Caldwell, served as the Flower Girl, and her younger brothers, Nathan and Timothy Caldwell, served as the 2 Ring Bearers. All told, Joe + Kendra’s wedding featured a Bridal Party of 26.
Joy–Anna + Austin | May 26, 2017
Joy's MOH was her long–time sister mom, Jill Duggar. Austin’s Best Man was his brother–in–law, Bobby Ballinger, Jr. Joy’s 12 Bridesmaids included—
6 Sisters Jana, Jill,* Jessa, Jinger, Johannah, and Jennifer
2 SILs Anna Duggar, Meagan (Forsyth) Ballinger
1 Future SIL Kendra Caldwell
2 Friends Carlin Bates, Sierra Jo Dominguez, Heidi Query
Meanwhile, with y’all’s help, here’s a list of Austin’s 12 Groomsmen—
His Grandfather Edwin Forsyth
3 BILs J.D. Duggar, Bobby Ballinger, Jr. (Sister Meagan’s Husband),* Nick Tunstill (Half–Sister Rachael’s Husband)
7 Friends Nate Paine (Chad’s Brother), Aaron Patton, Andrew Patton, Peter Query, Logan Smith, Josiah Stangl, Jacob Wilson
+ 1 Unknown
The Forsyths’ Flower Girl was Austin’s niece, Allove Tunstill. From the photo above, the younger boy in the dark suit looks like he’s a Ring Bearer—but I’m not sure, and I don’t know who he is, or how he’s related to the couple. (Sorry!) Anyway, when all’s said and done, the Forsyths had a Bridal Party of 25.
Jinger + Jeremy | November 5, 2016
Unsurprisingly, Jinger's MOH was her sister, Jessa. Meanwhile, Jeremy’s Best Man was his brother, Charles Vuolo. Jinger had 10 Bridesmaids, including—
5 Sisters Jana, Jill, Jessa,* Joy, Johannah
2 SILs Anna Duggar, Valerie Vuolo
3 Friends Jennifer Hartono, Kenzie Peters, Rebekah Kelly
Sadly, Duggar Data has no idea who any of Jeremy’s 10 Groomsmen are, with the exception of—
His Brother Charles Vuolo
1 BIL John David Duggar
1 SIL’s Spouse Ben Seewald
2 Friends James Song, Josue Soto
+ 5 Unknown
Miracle Child Josie Duggar was the Vuolos’ Flower Girl, while the Ring Bearer was Jinger’s nephew, Josh + Anna’s son, Michael J. Duggar. Ultimately, Jinger + Jeremy had a Bridal Party of 22.
Jessa + Benjamin | November 1, 2014
Jessa’s sister, Jinger, served as her MOH. Ben’s good friend, Dylan McMahan, served as his Best Man. Jessa had 11 Bridesmaids, including—
4 Friends Jennifer Hartono, Amara Query, Anna Hackel, Peyton Weiss
So far, Jessa + Ben are the only Duggar or Bates pair to have unequal numbers or BMs and GMs. Ben had 10 Groomsmen, including—
His Brother Ethan Seewald
His Cousin Russ Seewald
2 BILs Josiah Duggar, Joseph Duggar
6 Friends Dylan McMahan,* Dan Robinson, Jake Hendrix, Kolton Kulis, Rob Flowers, Ryan Schofield
Jessa + Ben had 2 Flower Girls—Jordyn Duggar, Jessa’s little sister, and Faith Seewald, Ben’s little sister. Ben’s little brother, Thomas Seewald, was the Ring Bearer. In the end, the Seewalds had a Bridal Party of 24.
Jill + Derick | June 21, 2014
Jill’s MOH was her eldest sister, Jana. Derick’s Best Man was his younger (and only) brother, Daniel Dillard. Jill’s 6 Bridesmaids included—
5 Sisters Jana,* Jill, Jinger, Joy–Anna, and Johannah
1 SIL Anna Duggar
... while Dericks 6 Groomsmen included—
His Brother Daniel Dillard*
His Cousin Tony Dillard
2 BILs J.D. Duggar, Joseph Duggar
2 Friends Stephen Jones, Madison McCalmon
Perhaps making up for a lack of BMs and GMs, the Dillards had 4 Flower Girls—Jill’s sisters, Jenni, Jordyn, and Josie; and her niece, Josh + Anna’s daughter, Mackynzie. Finally, they had 2 Ring Bearers—Jill’s youngest brother, Jackson; and Jill’s nephew, Josh + Anna’s first son, Michael. Ultimately, Jill + Derick had a Bridal Party of 18.
Joshua + Anna | September 26, 2008
Duggar Data is 95% Sure that Anna’s MOH was her sister, Priscilla Keller. As for the Best Man... Based on the photo, I think it was J.D. (He is directly next to Josh, despite being shorter than the next GM in line.) Here’s a list of Anna’s 10 Bridesmaids—
4 Sisters Esther, Rebekah, Priscilla,* Susanna
5 SILs Jana, Jill, Jessa, Jinger, Joy–Anna
+ 1 Unknown
... and Josh’s 10 Groomsmen—
7 Brothers J.D.,* Joseph, Josiah, Jed, Jer, Jason, James
1 BIL Joshua MacDonald
+ 2 Unknown
Per Josh (at ~5:55), his youngest brothers, Justin and Jackson, were the 2 Ring Bearers, and his then–youngest sisters, Johanna and Jennifer, served as their 2 Flower Girls. Overall, it was a Bridal Party of 24.
Bates Bridal Parties—Tori (2017) to Erin (2013)
Tori + Bobby | December 16, 2017
When Tori married Bobby, 2 MOHs stood by her side—Carlin Bates (Maid) and Erin (Bates) Paine (Matron). As for Bobby, he chose just 1 Best Man—his best friend, Kelton Balka, who also happens to be Josie’s boyfriend. Tori had a total of 10 Bridesmaids, including—
2 SILs Whitney (Perkins) Bates, Katherine Smith (Bobby’s Sister?)
2 Friends Devonna Killin, Abby Paine (Chad Paine’s Sister)
...and Bobby had 10 Groomsmen, namely—
4 BILs Zach, Lawson, Nathan, and Trace Bates
1 SIL’s Spouse Chad Paine
5 Friends Kelton Balka (Josie’s BF),* Evan Stewart (Carlin’s BF), Dillon Richards, Johnathan Rasmussen, Samuel Fuller
The Smiths’ also had 3 Flower Girls—Tori’s sister Callie; Tori’s cousin, Charlotte Bates; and Grace Renner, who Duggar Data doesn’t recognize. The Smiths had 3 Ring Bearers—Judson and Jeb Bates, plus a little boy I’ve not seen before, Cole Renner. All in all, the Smiths’ had a Bridal Party of 26.
Michaela + Brandon | August 15, 2015
At Michaela’s request, her mother (Kelly Jo Bates) served as her MOH. As for Brandon, I wasn’t able to identify his Best Man. Michaela’s 8 Bridesmaids, all family members except one, included—
Her Mother Kelly Jo Bates*
3 Sisters Erin Paine (Not MOH, Despite Tan Dress), Alyssa Webster, Tori Bates
3 SILs Angie Keilen, Becky Keilen, Christy Keilen
1 Friend Jana Duggar (!)
... meanwhile, Brandons 8 Groomsmen included—
2 Brothers Brent and Craig Keilen
2 BILs Lawson Bates, Trace Bates
4 Friends Andy Warner, Gabe Cleator, Kelly Dornik, Nate Paine (Chad Paine’s Brother)
Also, they had 3 Flower Girls—Addallee, Ellie, and Callie Bates—each of whom is Michaela’s younger sister. Finally, Michaela’s little brother, Judson Bates, was the Ring Bearer. Overall, the Keilens had a Bridal Party of 20.
Alyssa + John | May 24, 2014
Breaking with tradition, Alyssa didn’t choose a sister as her MOH—instead, she chose her sister–in–law, Tori Webster. (Confusing! Two Toris!) Brandon wasn’t so rebellious; his Best Man was his brother, Jordan Webster.
Alyssa had 8 Bridesmaids, consisting of—
3 Sisters Michaela Bates (Keilen), Erin Paine, Tori Bates (Smith)
3 SILs Whitney Bates, Tori Webster,* Elizabeth Miller (John’s Sister)
2 Friends Andrea Warren, Bethany Chavez
... while John had 8 Groomsmen, namely—
3 Brothers Jordan,* Brent, and David Webster
2 BILs Nathan Bates, Joe Miller
1 Cousin (?) Jonathan Webster (Not A Sibling; Cousin is A Guess)
2 Friends Lewis Albright, Luke Brigham
Alyssa’s little sisters, Addie and Ellie Bates, were the 2 Flower Girls, while her little brother, Judson Bates, was the Ring Bearer. All told, the Websters had a Bridal Party of 19.
Zach + Whitney (Perkins) Bates | December 14, 2013
Whitney stood at the altar with her cousin (?), Makayla Ray, as her MOH. For his Best Man, Zach chose his friend, Andy Leftwich. (Interesting he didn’t go with a sibling!) Whitney’s 6 Bridesmaids included—
The Bates–Perkins's 3 Flower Girls included Whitney’s adoptive sisters—Ella, Sadie, and Bella Owens. Finally, Whitney’s brother—Phillip Owens—was Zach + Whit’s Ring Bearer. Overall, they had a Bridal Party of 16.
Erin + Chad Paine | November 2, 2013
For her MOH, Erin picked her sister, Tori Bates. For his Best Man, Chad chose his friend, Jordan Webster—who is now Alyssa (Bates) Webster’s BIL. Erin’s 5 Bridesmaids included—
3 Sisters Alyssa, Tori,* Carlin
1 SIL Abby Paine
1 Friend Becky Keilen (Michaela’s Future SIL)
... and Chad’s 5 Groomsmen included—
3 Brothers Thomas, Nate, and Joey Paine
1 BIL Zach Bates
1 Friend Jordan Webster* (Alyssa’s Future BIL)
The Flower Girl was Erin’s sister, Callie–Anna Bates, and the Ring Bearer was Chad’s brother, Johnny Paine. Overall, the Paines had a Bridal Party of 12.
Wow, that was long! I’ll be following this Post up with an analysis of the typical number of Bridesmaids, Groomsmen, etc., so stay tuned for that!
Keeping Up w/ Sue Radford—Britain’s Mega–Matriarch
How does Britain’s Largest Family compare to the Duggar or Bates Clans? Find out, after the jump...
Meet The Radfords
The Radfords, of Morecambre, Lancashire, England, are Britain’s largest family. Noel + Suzanne “Sue” Radford were childhood sweethearts—key word, ‘child.’ When Sue got pregnant at Age 13, she and Noel—who were both given up for adoption, as infants—decided to raise the child. Radford #1, Christopher, was born shortly after Sue’s 14th Birthday. Surprisingly, things worked out. Noel + Sue stayed together, raising Chris and preventing Baby #2, until their marriage ~4 Years Later, on September 26, 1992.
Little Radfords arrived in quick succession, after that. Within 15 Months, Noel + Sue’s long–awaited Baby #2 (Sophie) was born. Before long, the Radfords had #3, then #4, then #5—ultimately, settling into an average pace of 1 Child Every 507 Days (16.66 Months). While Sue was pregnant with Baby #9 (Josh), Noel actually got a vasectomy. (Not sure if it’s relevant, but Joshua’s spacing is one of closest of all the Radfords, at 323 Days.) He quickly got it reversed, though, as “the couple longed for more children.” So, more children they had: Eleven more, in fact, for a total of twenty, one of whom was still born (#17, Alfie).
After Baby #20 (Archie)’s birth <9 Months ago (in September 2017), Noel + Sue said their mega–family was finally complete. “We’re happy to be finishing on a nice even number,” Sue said. Nevertheless... On May 28, 2018, the Radfords’ Instagram featured an exciting announcement—Baby #21 is on the way! It’s a girl, due in November 2018. (Tori Smith’s baby is also due that month!)
Note that the Radfords aren’t quiverfull (QF)—and, don’t even seen particularly religious. They also don’t homeschool, ascribed to a sexist modesty standard, or practice chaperoned courtship. They do, however, star in a reality television show in Britain, which is why they’re fair game to discuss on Duggar Data.
Speaking of data, let’s look at some...
Keeping Up w/ The Radfords
Here’s a chart, summarizing the Radford family’s growth—
Note—Green indicates the two shortest spacings, while red indicates the two longest. Chris (#1)’s data is omitted, since the Radfords prevented pregnancy for several years, after his birth. Also, Alfie (#17)’s data is omitted—consistent with Duggar Data’s policy of omitting data from stillbirths or miscarriages, due to data integrity and uniformity concerns.
Average + S.D.
Doing the math, Sue’s average child spacing is 507 Days, but this varies by a standard deviation (S.D.) of 157 Days. (So... She’s not very consistent!) Thus, if we assume a normal distribution (bell curve), there’s a 68% Chance that Sue will have an inter–birth interval of 350—664 Days, and a 95% Chance that it’ll be between 193—821 Days.
Checking against Sue’s actual data, there’s only one outlier—i.e., one birth that is outside the 95% Range, for spacing—and that’s Radford #18 (Hallie). She’s immediately after Alfie (#17), who was stillborn, however—so, a larger gap was to be expected.
Median + M.A.D.
Now, instead of using Average + S.D., let’s use Median + M.A.D. They’re more resistant to outliers, among other things. Doing the math again, Sue’s median child spacing is 475 Days. (Look! That’s the current, overall Duggar Average, too!) Sue’s spacing varies by a normalized median absolute deviation (M.A.D.) of 145 Days. Thus, the Median + M.A.D. system say there are 68% Odds that Sue’ll give birth 330—620 Days apart, and 95% Odds that she’ll give birth 185—765 Days apart.
Again, Hallie (#17) is the only outlier.
How Many Children Will The Radfords Have ?
Well, we don’t have any basis to guess at her fertility, so it’s hard to say. Right now, Sue Radford (b. 3–22–75) is 43.19 Years old. Just for fun, let’s say Sue is as fertile as Michelle Duggar. Michelle had her last child (Josie) at Age 43.24—so, actually, Sue is fertiler than that. Radford #21 is due in November—and, by then, Sue’ll be ~Age 43.65. Okay... So what about Kelly Bates? Kelly had her last child (Jeb) at Age 45.27. If Sue is exactly as fertile, she’ll have ~591 Fertile Days left, after Radford #21′s arrive. (I’m assuming a November 15 D.O.B., as her precise due date isn’t known yet.) At Sue’s typical pace—Mean or Median—that’s long enough for only one more pregnancy. So... The Radfords might end up with 22 Total (21 Living) Children, in the end.
Sue Radford vs. Michelle vs. Kelly Jo
Curious how Sue’s fertility, spacing, etc. compares to Michelle Duggar and Kelly Jo Bates? Here’s a chart—
Note—Data from Duggar Wedding to Josh Duggar and Chris to Sophie Radford is omitted, due to their parents’ intentional pregnancy prevention. Also, Jubilee Duggar and Alfie Radford’s data was omitted, due to stillbirth. Finally, for twins, the second twin (J.D., Jer) wasn’t given a 0 Day spacing—rather, both twins are counted together, since it’s a single birth.
So, there you have it! All you ever wanted to know about the Suzanne Radford, the mega–matriarch from across the pond. Hope y’all enjoyed!
What is the current average age for Duggar and/or Bateseseseses kids getting married? I guess I'm interested about it all - guys and gals separate, and what the situation is separately in both families.
Sorry it took me so long to get to this! Good Ask. Let’s take a look…
‘Marital Age’ for The Duggars
Overall, the Average Duggar is married at Age 22.03; however, this varies by a Standard Deviation (SD) of 2.79 Years. (Just to be clear, this is including Born–In and In–Laws of both sexes.) Assuming a normal curve, there are 68% Odds that a Duggar will marry within ±1 SD of Average—i.e., Age 19.24—24.81—and 95% Odds that a Duggar will wed within ±2 SDs of Average—i.e., by Age 27.6.
Males—
Given the strict gender roles in the Duggars’ and Bateses’ ‘culture,’ let’s break this down by sex… The Average Duggar Male (Born–In or In–Law) marries at Age 23.20. This varies by a SD of 3.24 Years. Therefore, it is likely (68%) that a Duggar Son or Son–In–Law will be Age 19.95—26.44 when he marries. Thus far, the Youngest Duggar Groom is Ben (Age 19.46), while the Oldest Duggar Groom is Jeremy (Age 28.89).
How do the Duggar Sons compare to the Duggar Son–In–Laws? Let’s check it out! An Average Duggar Son marries at Age 21.68 (SD 1.04 Years), while the Average Duggar Son–In–Law marries at Age 24.34 (SD 4.04 Years). Running those numbers, Duggar Sons typically (68%) marry between Age 20.64—22.72, and Duggar Son–In–Laws typically marry in the much wider range of Age 20.30—28.32.
Females—
Now, for the ladies… An Average Duggar Female (Born–In or In–Law) marries at Age 20.86. With a SD is 1.76 Years, Duggar Brides’ ages vary a lot less than Duggar Grooms’ ages. (Remember, the SD for Grooms was 3.24 Years.) Within the Duggar Clan, a woman is highly likely (68%) to marry between Age 19.10—22.61. So far, the Kendra was the Youngest Duggar Bride, at Age 19.08, while Jill was the Oldest Duggar Bride, at Age 23.10. (But if John + Abbie marry, Jill will be demoted to runner–up!)
How do the In–Laws compare to the Born–Ins? They’re younger. The Average Duggar Daughter marries at Age 21.88 (SD 1.16 Years), which corresponds to a likely (68%) marital age range of Age 20.27—23.50. Meanwhile, the Average Duggar Daughter–In–Law weds at Age 19.49 (SD 0.67 Years). Thus, Duggar Sons are likely (68%) to marry women who’re Age 18.81—20.16. That’s a very narrow range!
Onward! Let’s talk about…
‘Marital Age’ for The Bateses
Overall, including Born–Ins and In–Laws, Males and Females, a 100% Average Bates marries at Age 23.46. (Versus Age 22.03 for the Duggars.) Marital ages, for the Bateses, vary by a SD of 2.42 Years. (As such, they’re about 13% more consistent than the Duggars, who have an SD of 2.79 Years.) Assuming a bell–curved data set, most (68%) of Bateses are due to marry between Age 21.04—25.87, and practically all (95%) are due to marry between Age 18.62—28.29.
Males—
Let’s break this down by sex. An Average Bates Males (Born–In or In–Law) is Age 24.95 at marriage; however, this varies by a SD of 1.43 Years. (Versus the Average Duggar Male at Age 23.20, with a 3.24 Year SD.) Thus, it’s probable a Bates Male will marry between Age 23.52—26.38. So far, the Youngest Bates Groom is Bobby at Age 22.83 (versus Ben’s Age 19.46), and the Oldest Bates Groom is Chad at Age 26.54 (versus Jeremy’s Age 28.89).
(We won’t separate Born–In and In–Law for the Bateses, since there’s only one Daughter–In–Law, so far.)
Female—
Finally… An Average Bates Female (Born–In or In–Law) marries at Age 21.96. (Compare that to the Average Duggar Female, who weds at Age 20.86.) But, it varies by a SD of 2.35 Years. (Versus 1.76 Years for the Duggars.) So, it’s very likely (68%) that a Bates Female will marry between Age 19.61—24.31. So far, the Youngest Bates Bride is Alyssa at Age 19.54 (versus Kendra’s Age 19.08), and the Oldest Bates Bride is Michaela at Age 25.22 (versus Jill’s Age 23.10).
I'm sure you've spotted it, but the Dillard's post to JD and Abbie had a photo of them labelled 'May 2018', so I'm guessing that's when they started courting :)
Estimated Courtship Date for John + Abbie!
[Link to the Dillards’ Post, “Congratulations John + Abbie!”]
Oh my God, you’re right! Also, no, I hadn’t noticed this yet! (Not sure if others have and I’m just late to the party?) Anyway, all credit to Anon! Very good eye! Based on this, I will use May 16, 2018 as John + Abbie’s courtship date, unless we get better evidence of a different date! (May 16 is the exact middle of May.)
Also, I know y’all are waiting for my data and predictions on the courtship... It’s in the works, now that it’s the weekend! Thank you for your patience.
Fun Fact: The Predictor is actually set up to deal with a Duggar + Bates couple, if it happens. (It’ll assume, e.g., that, if a Bates Daughter is a Duggar Daughter–In–Law, she’ll be fertile to Age 45.25, not Age 40.0.) So, yeah... Bring it on!
On Duggar Data, we usually analyze Duggars and Bateses separately. Duggars’ data is kept with Duggars’, Bateses’ with Bateses’. So, each family has its own typical spousal age gap—
Typical Duggar Age Gap Male +2.34 Years | Female –2.34 Years
Typical Bates Age Gap Male +3.09 Years | Female –3.09 Years
Immediately, you might see the issue for this Ask. There’s no way that a Duggar + Bates pair could be typical, per both families’ data. But, we can fix this! Let’s do what we rarely do, and find a Duggar / Bates Combined Average. Taking the mean (average) of all Duggar and Bates Couples’ age gaps, we get—
Duggar / Bates Combined Typical Age Gap
Males +2.72 Years (2.72 Years Older)
Females –2.72 Years (2.72 Years Younger)
Answering this Ask comes down to which Duggar + Bates, Male + Female pair—sorry, heteronormativity is theirs, not mine!—has an age difference closest to this. And, let’s only look at currently–single Duggars and Bateses...
After doing the math, the best match is Jenni Duggar + Isaiah Bates—they’re 2.79 Years apart, with Isaiah being older. (You were right, Anon!) As of May 29, 2018, Jenni’s 10.8 Years old, and Isaiah’s 13.6 Years old. Here’s the Top 3 Best Matches, all with age gaps favoring the man—
Jennifer + Isaiah 2.79 Years (Typical + 0.07 Years)
Jackson D. + Ellie 2.93 Years (Typical + 0.23 Years)
Johanna + Warden 2.40 Years (Typical – 0.32 Years)
Hi! I noticed that for a lot of data, it says Jinger and Jeremy began dating in May, when Jeremy confirmed on their website that they actually started courting in December of 2015!
Data Dispute! Anon, you’re half–right. I’ll give you that. Jinger + Jeremy’s site says—
Obviously, it’s a significant date. However, the C.S. Start Date my spreadsheets use (May 21, 2016) comes straight from the Vuolos. At Jinger’s bridal shower, a cutesy sign listed dates for the Vuolos relationship milestones, including ‘Began Courting’ on May 21, 2016— (GIF credit to Annie of @keepingupwithfundies.)
You’re 100% right about the website thing, though! I actually use December 11, 2015 as their ‘pre–courtship’ date, based entirely on the website entry.
Honestly, without the sign, we probably never would’ve known when the Vuolos began courting. There’s scant other evidence! So, your incredulity is justified!
