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Mets CP Parnell out with partially torn MCL; Papa Grande is a Closer Again

A day after Cliff Lee killed* the win, everything was riding the sabermetric wave of eschewing traditional stats that didn't say much in favor of non-traditional ones that says it all.

And then the New York Mets lost Bobby Parnell to a partial tear of the MCL. The team replaced him with proven closer Jose Valverde.

*Lee somehow allowed eight runs over five innings on Opening Day and managed to record the win. The Philles beat the Texas Rangers, 14-10.

Last year, Brian Kenny's campaign to kill the save brought to national consciousness what numbers-inclined prognosticators have been championing for years. I believe it won more hearts than it's lost.

The New York Mets learned that lesson the hard way.

In 2009, Frankie Rodriguez agreed to a three-year $37 million extension, in large part because of recording 208 saves in seven seasons, including a MLB-record 62 saves in his last season for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. When he started acting out and punching family members in the locker room, the Mets signed Frank Francisco for two years and a little more than $10 million.

None of those two expenses was worth it.

Meanwhile, Parnell was sent to the bullpen full time in 2010. He wouldn't close, of course not. But from 2010 to 2012, Parnell had a 2.98 ERA, averaged 58 games and 54 innings of work a year, struck out more than eight batters per nine innings, averaged 95 mph on his heat and was an extreme ground ball pitcher.

Time was, closers occupied a higher level of need for MLB teams. The best of the lot received deals that mid-rotation starters would normally get.

Teams need a relief ace, or two. That's not in dispute. What's in dispute is the process of finding a relief ace. By the time Jonathan Papelbon completed a four-year $50 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, the market bottomed out.

Not completely, of course. Joe Nathan continues to receive $10 million a year as he inches towards his 40s. Craig Kimbrel agreed to a four-year $42 million extension. Jim Johnson will make $10 million for one season before hitting free agency. Rafael Soriano scored a two-year $28 million* deal at the end of 2013.

*In truth, much of that money is deferred. Soriano will eventually make $28 million, but will currently earn $7 million a year, with the balance kicking in after 2018.

*I'm not even being facetious. Mark Melancon ranked third, but pitched mostly in the eighth inning before taking over an injured Jason Grilli. In summary, the third best relief pitcher wasn't even a closer.

1) Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox -- The game's best splitter will come at a total cost less than $10 million. Incentives made it so. He was originally signed for one year and $4.25 million, with health-related vesting options that guaranteed his second year. He was the team's fourth choice after burning through Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey and Junichi Tazawa.

2) Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals -- Before being promoted to full-time closer and saving 47 games while making the All Star team, Holland was good enough to allow the Royals to trade Joakim Soria way back in 2011, when Holland flashed a 1.80 ERA / 11.1 K/9 / 2.9 BB/9 in 46 games and 60.0 innings. He's homegrown, and will make close to $5 million in 2014, his first year of arbitration.

3) Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates -- Had closing experience for the Houston Astros, and flashed enough stuff -- a superior groundball rate and above average strikeout rates. The six-year pro disintegrated in Boston in 2012, but revived his career after the Pirates acquired him as a throw-in for Hanrahan's services. It's worth noting that the Pirates replaced proven closer Hanrahan for Grilli, a converted starter and 11-year journeyman.

4) Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers (signed with the Detroit Tigers in the off-season) -- Signed by the Rangers off Tommy John surgery on a relative discount -- $7 million a year, or about a $4 million paycut from his AAV with the Minnesota Twins from 2009 to 2011.

Yes, he's close to 40, yes he's coming off late-career elbow ligament replacement surgery, and yes he was worth $7 million or more from '11 to '12. Will he be worth the $20 million two-year deal he signed with the Tigers? I'm willing to bet in Nathan's favor. He's an outlier in a way that Mariano Rivera was, at least to a degree.

5) Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

Regarded as the game's best closer, the Braves are paying a premium to keep Kimbrel. His deal marked the largest extension ever awarded to a closer. But at $10.5 million a year on average, it's nowhere close to Papelbon's $13 million a year pact that began when he was 31. Kimbrel's deal begins in his age-25 season.

And so it goes.

Rounding the Top 10 are converted catcher Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers, hard-throwing 21st round pick Cardinals farmhand Trevor Rosenthal, 28-year-old Nate Jones of the White Sox (like Melancon, not a closer), M's hard-throwing Nosebleed Hooligans Darling Danny Farquhar (Acquired as part of a two-player package for aging franchise OF Ichiro) and converted lefty setup man Drew Smyly.

The only players in the Top 20 owed a significant chunk of money include Reds flamethrower Aroldis Champan at No.16, Tigers closer Joaquin Benoit (signed by the Padres as a free agent) and Mariano Rivera at No.19.

The game has somewhat moved on. There really is no saves stat to kill because A) only a guy like Mariano Rivera deserves to get all that money pitching an inning a game B) there's at best one to two guys who can approximate what he does -- the consistency, durability and performance -- on a season-by-season basis C) the solemn acceptance that relief pitchers are volatile.

So one one panics. Or if they do, it's induced by an opposite reaction. For a short time front offices didn't care about a reliever's performance trends. They better have someone who's saved 25 or more games showing up every ninth inning of a three-run game.

When the Baltimore Orioles rescinded Grant Balfour's deal in the winter of 2013, the rules of the free agent's reliever changed. Balfour isn't just a proven closer, he's Exhibit A in the movement to kill saves. The previously unknown Aussie hurler traditionally has high strikeout rates, league average walk rates, a superior fastball velocity and a proven ability to work 60 or more innings a year. That he recorded 64 saves over two years is incidental. He's a relief ace.

But the O's medical team, rightly or wrongly, found red flags in Balfour's arm. Given the uncertainty of its ninth-inning role, the O's instead chose to use Tommy Hunter, a converted failed starter who was pretty good (a career high 150 adjusted ERA) in his first year as a full-time reliever.

The Mets will temporarily replace Parnell with Jose Valverde.

Valverde's case is unique. Once upon a time, hey that was just last year!, Papa Grande was a cautionary tale for believing too much in counting saves. After saving 52 games (a league-leading 49 in the regular season, with three more in the playoffs) without blowing a game in 2011, Valverde saved 35 games (good) with a 3.78 ERA as a 34-year-old in 2012.

Valverde wasn't very lucky, but he wouldn't blow as hard as he did the season after. In 2013, Valverde went unsigned. The Detroit Tigers wanted 100 mph kid Bruce Rondon closing games. When that experiment was yanked -- perhaps a little too prematurely -- the Tigers went back to an old hand, signing Valverde to $2 million. He saved nine games in 19.1 innings of work, but at that point the Tigers were better off using anyone else. Valverde struck out more than eight batters and walked less than three runners per nine innings. He also allowed three home runs per nine. Detroit promoted setup man Joaquin Benoit, and went on to make the postseason.

Flash forward a year later.

In 10.2 spring innings Valverde wasn't quite as horrific, finishing with a 3.38 ERA / 1.125 WHIP with less than two walks and a league average five plus Ks per nine. He didn't allow a home run.

So of course he's closing games for the Mets.

It's a move guided by a different set of principles. It's guided by the same principles of allowing LaTroy Hawkins* to get outs as a closer, in 2013.

*Hawkins replaced an injured Parnell towards the end of 2013.

New York show runner Sandy Alderson could have gone out and bought himself a shiny new closer. Arms with track records -- Benoit, Nathan, Fernando Rodney, Balfour -- were available. Instead Alderson spent what little cash that isn't tied to Bernie Madoff's scam to acquire a starting pitcher -- two years and $20 million for Bartolo Colon.

The previously thought of just causes for spending on a one-inning arm existed in New York.

Parnell has been run through the ground and was exhibiting alarming physical effects -- his velocity was diminished in spring, just as he was coming off season-ending injury the year before. The farm system wasn't forthcoming with an obvious replacement.

For some reason the Wilpons think they can break the .500 barrier. Front offices who can't spend too much on starting pitching compensate by signing elite relievers, which aren't as highly valued in terms of dollars as they once were. Even Billy Beane of Oakland and Andrew Friedman of Tampa Bay are paying for saves this year.

But the team held off because it's the smart thing to do. No, installing Valverde isn't smart at all. But he's not making more than league minimum. For all purposes, he's probably the best option the Mets have at the moment. And he'll be easy to replace if he fails to arrest his four-year decline.

One day perhaps as early as next week, someone will come by. It could be triple digits hurler Vic Brown, whose awful spring got him demoted. Kyle Farnsworth, another ex-closer with saves in his resume, will be called up today after failing to make two mothership rosters in spring. Carlos Torres responded well to bullpen work after starting nine mediocre games in 2013. Kevin Gregg is a free agent, and will likely receive a little more than major league minimum.

The Mets are using the same closer Detroit used to patch up a ninth-inning hole. Because we're talking about the Mets, failure is an option.

Funny how times change.

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