Woke early. Cuppa coffee, watching climate drama Extrapolations. Episode 1 hits hard with a possible near future. Sends me searching.
Then, saw this:
"And here’s the scary part. Even before that El Nino officially forms, we’re already seeing global ocean temperatures setting a new all-time record, breaking the one set in 2016. The next jump in temperature will start from such a high base that Jim Hansen, the world’s most renowned climatologist, recently predicted that not only will we see a new global record air temperature in 2024 (“even a little futz of an El Niño should be sufficient for record global temperature”), but that it could, at least temporarily, bust through the 1.5 degree mark that the world swore to avoid in Paris just eight years ago. Hansen’s not alone in the prediction
“It’s very likely that the next big El Niño could take us over 1.5C,” said Prof Adam Scaife, the head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office. “The probability of having the first year at 1.5C in the next five-year period is now about 50:50.”
As this happens, novel forms of chaos will ensue. No human has ever left us a shred of evidence about what life is like on a globe with these average temperatures. I imagine the phrase “on steroids” will get a regular workout, but it’s not quite right, since pharmaceutical enhancements work on the existing body. A planet at 420 parts per million co2 is a different planet than one at 275 parts per million. If Captain Kirk was landing on it, the first thing his tricorder would register is the composition of the atmosphere; when you’re talking planets, it’s a pretty basic data point. So we don’t really know what surprises are in store—though that news that the Antarctic current was starting to slow like a hose with a crimp is fair warning."
We're in for a stretch of heavy climate - Source for above clip
Deep Antarctic current slowing?? Is this true? sez me
Melting Antarctic ice predicted to cause rapid slowdown of deep ocean current by 2050 | the guardian
"A team of Australian scientists looked at the deep ocean current below 4,000 metres that originates in the cold, fresh and dense waters that plunge down off Antarctica’s continental shelf and spread to ocean basins around the globe.
Prof Matt England, of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales and a co-author of the research published in Nature, said the whole deep ocean current was heading for collapse on its current trajectory.
“In the past, these circulations have taken more than 1,000 years or so to change, but this is happening over just a few decades. It’s way faster than we thought these circulations could slow down.
“We are talking about the possible long-term extinction of an iconic water mass.”
Welp. I want to be able to push this away with claims of untested science and doomsaying, but you know what? I cannot. So far, climate science predictions are on track. We are experiencing the things they described. In fact, climate changes are happening faster than scientists' earlier predictions.
