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Updated Rainfall Forecast for 2026: Drought to Intensify
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 29 May 2026 | The island-average rainfall outlook for this year continues to show a strong, clear signal toward drier‑than‑normal conditions, i.e., drought conditions. The latest forecast indicates an 86% chance of below‑normal rainfall (up 17%), compared with a 12% chance of near‑normal totals (down 10%) and only a 2% chance of above‑normal amounts (down 7%). In…
268Weather 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Update: Slightly Less Active, But Still Potentially Dangerous
By Dale C. S. Destin @268Weather – Published 19 May 2026 | The latest update to the 268Weather 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast indicates a slight downward adjustment in expected activity; however, the season is now forecast to be near to above normal overall and capable of producing dangerous hurricanes. The updated forecast now calls for: 15 named storms (down from 16), 6 hurricanes…
Strong Earthquake Near Antigua and Barbuda Reinforces Need for Tsunami Readiness
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 17 May 2026 | At 10:50 a.m. AST on 16 May 2026, a strong earthquake measuring magnitude 6.1 according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and 6.4 according to the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre (UWI SRC), struck near Antigua and Barbuda and was felt widely across the Northeastern Caribbean. Based on USGS records dating back to…
Drought is Not Just an Agricultural Issue for SIDS Like Antigua and Barbuda
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 14 May 2026 | Drought is often viewed mainly as a farming problem—parched fields, struggling crops, and thirsty livestock. While agriculture is certainly among the sectors hardest hit, for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like Antigua and Barbuda, drought is far more than an agricultural issue. It is a national issue that affects water security, public…
Early 2026 Rainfall Forecast: Drought to Prevail
Dale C. S. Destin – Published 02 May 2026 | The island-average rainfall outlook for this year shows a strong and clear signal toward drier‑than‑normal conditions, i.e., drought conditions. The latest forecast indicates a 69% chance of below‑normal rainfall, compared with a 22% chance of near‑normal totals and only a 9% chance of above‑normal amounts. In short, the guidance points to a moderate…
Hotter, Drier Days Ahead Due to El Niño: Why Antigua and Barbuda and the Rest of the Region Must Prepare Now
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 26 April 2026 | As climate signals point to the development of El Niño, the Caribbean is being urged to brace for hotter, drier conditions in the months ahead. For Antigua and Barbuda, this is not just a forecast—it is a familiar and serious threat. What El Niño Means for Us El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface…
268Weather 2026 Early Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What You Need to Know
By Dale C. S. Destin @268Weather | Published 20 April 2026 | The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be above normal, according to the latest outlook from 268Weather. While uncertainty remains—especially this early in the year—the signals currently point toward an active season overall, with important factors both enhancing and potentially suppressing storm development. The Big…
WMO Retires the Name “Melissa” Following Historic 2025 Hurricane Season
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 04 March 2025 | Minutes ago, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee, meeting in Mexico City for its 48th session (HC-48), made a historic and unanimous decision: the name Melissa has been retired from the Atlantic tropical cyclone naming list. There will never be another Hurricane Melissa. The nomination to retire…
Record-Breaking Rainfall: Wettest February 10/11 on Record at V.C. Bird International Airport
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 11 February 2026 | The 24-hour period ending 8:00 am AST on February 11, 2026 (February 10/11) has officially become the wettest such period on record for that date at V.C. Bird International Airport (VCBIA). The excessive rainfall was caused by a cold front. A total of 34.4 mm (1.35 inches) of rainfall was recorded during the period. Rainfall records at VCBIA…
Above-Normal Swells and Dangerous Surf Impacting the Caribbean
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 09 February 2026 | Above-normal swells and hazardous surf conditions are affecting the northern Caribbean, including Antigua and Barbuda, with impacts expected to spread southward across the Caribbean and into Guyana and surrounding coastal areas by tomorrow. Swells are forecast to peak near 4.0 metres (13 feet), with even higher surf heights along exposed…
CARIBE WAVE 26: Strengthening Tsunami Preparedness in Antigua and Barbuda and Across the Caribbean
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 03 February 2026 | 19 March 2026 | 11:00 AST, 1500 UTC The Caribbean region will once again unite for CARIBE WAVE 26, the annual regional tsunami preparedness exercise coordinated by the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) through the Caribbean Tsunami Warning System. This important exercise provides countries, institutions, and communities…
Strong Winds and Hazardous Seas Affecting the Northeast Caribbean
BY Dale C. S. Destin – Published 19 January 2026 | Residents and mariners across the Northeast Caribbean, including Antigua and Barbuda, are advised to closely monitor a period of above-normal winds and very hazardous sea conditions affecting the region this week. Wave (sea) heights and timing are most applicable to the Atlantic waters of the Northeast Caribbean, including Antigua and Barbuda.…
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Sargassum Outlook: January 1 to April 1, 2026
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 18 January 2026 | Synopsis Sargassum abundance across the Central Atlantic is increasing, signalling a gradual escalation in the potential for Sargassum influxes across parts of the Caribbean during the first quarter of 2026. While widespread extreme events are not expected during the early months of the year, conditions point to a progressive increase in…
Building Tsunami-Resilient Communities: The Tsunami Ready Antigua and Barbuda Project
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 09 January 2026 | Tsunamis are among the most dangerous natural hazards facing coastal and island communities. They strike with little to no warning. They move as fast as the speed of a jet plane. Tsunamis can cause catastrophic loss of life, livelihoods, and infrastructure within minutes. While it is impossible to predict exactly when or where the next tsunami…
Near-Record Cold Night Across Antigua and Barbuda
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 29 December 2025 | Antigua and Barbuda experienced another notably cold night, with minimum temperatures ranging between 14–23°C (57–73°F) across the country. While such temperatures are not unprecedented, last night’s readings were near record-low levels, especially when viewed through the lens of long-term observations at the V. C. Bird International…
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Recent Swell Activity — What the Data Shows
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 25 December 2025 | The chart above shows swell heights observed over the past few days. This data is from a NOAA buoy located a few hundred miles away from the Northeast Caribbean. As swells travel toward the islands, from this buoy, they typically lose about one foot in height due to attenuation. This indicates that when the buoy recorded peak swells in excess…
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Swells Rising Midweek Through Weekend — Regional Coastal Impacts Expected
By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 23 December 2025 | Marine conditions around Antigua and Barbuda are currently moderate, with swells of 2–4 feet mainly from the east. Forecast guidance indicates that conditions will change beginning mid-week. Increasing Swell Forecast Swells are expected to build on Wednesday, reaching 6–10 feet, with occasional higher seas possible through the weekend. The…
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