#risk-reward

[disk28]

[cmweller]

Challenge #04500-L116: One Favour

(I wish to add to this lovely tale, if I may)

When asked what she would like in return for saving Wraithvine, and Bibrid she said she needed nothing. She was just glad she saved them, that was good enough. They, at least partially, refuse that idea. For her kindness, they help her find a good job where she can do what she loves best. Helping others.

https://peakd.com/fiction/@internutter/challenge-04482-l098-one-good-turn -- Anon Guest

It was like a dream, some silly fantasy. She'd daydreamed about meeting the legendary Wraithvine. When she was seven. In those imaginings, she was a secret princess, a fate-touched hero, or some legend reborn in a time of need.

Lilly had never expected to meet hir after she turned twenty. Twenty held a lot more responsibilities. A lot more of her time eaten away by what needed to be done.

This cozy little cottage was straight out of a picture book. The hearth, the riotous garden of herbs. The equally immortal cat currently stretched out in a sunbeam. The stonework of the walls arrayed in patterns of shape and colour that only an Elf could build, including the colours put into the mortar.

[Check the source for the rest of the story]

[stochastic-macd]

Day and swing trade like a pro.

Calculated Risk Investing Method

An Investor always takes into consideration the risk-reward ratio.  Really, one is interested in investing propositions that offer a higher reward in comparison to the amount of money one is risking.  There is also another factor that influences an investment decision, that is the risk tolerance.  

Are you a risk averse investor or risk tolerant investor?

This article will help one to understand what is a calculated risky investing method or strategy.  Let's get started.

[finovohub]

India's risk-reward prospects fine but not stellar; China threat a worry: Bhanu Baweja, UBS Investment Bank

https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-126473292,width-1200,height-630,imgsize-623276,overlay-etmarkets/articleshow.jpg Gold may gain another 10-15%, and silver could do even better as a more volatile proxy for gold, said Bhanu Baweja, chief strategist at UBS Investment Bank. In an interview with Himadri Buch, UK-based Baweja also spoke about slowing equity returns in 2026 and the resilience of the US…

India's risk-reward prospects fine but not stellar; China threat a worry: Bhanu Baweja, UBS Investment Bank

[iamtheride]

I’ll go first.

[paulspuzzles-blog]

Solution #6

Solution behind the “Keep reading” link

If your current score this round is less than 20, it’s optimal to twist.  If it’s more than 20, it’s optimal to stick.  If it’s exactly 20, I dunno, go with your heart or flip a coin or something.  Sometimes making a non-rational decision is entirely rational: see the old “you’re hungry and two equally good restaurants are equally close” problem.

The precise question we want to answer is “if I roll again, do I expect to gain more than I lose?”.  To do this, we need to calculate the expectation or expected value of rolling again, which is a fancy way of saying the average outcome.

Let’s call our current score this round N (the number of die rolls up to this point doesn’t matter, only the score).  If we roll 2 through 6, we score that many points, but if we roll 1, we lose N points - so our score will be -N.  Let’s draw up a table of outcomes vs. probabilities (the probability of any given outcome being 1/6, as it’s a fair die):

To obtain the expectation of another roll, you multiply each outcome by its probability and sum the result.  So our expectation is

(-N)*1/6 + 2*1/6 + 3*1/6 + 4*1/6 + 5*1/6 + 6*1/6 = (2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 - N)/6 = (20 - N)/6

So the expectation of rolling again is positive when N is less than 20 (i.e. you should twist), negative when N is more than 20 (i.e. stick) and zero when it’s exactly 20 (the “break even” point - do whatever you like).

Of course, as with anything in probability, you can buck the trend.  I’ve seen a kid get 100 points in one turn.  But I’ve also seen other kids get into the nineties in one turn and then roll a 1.  And I’ve seen kids roll tons of 1s before they even get to 20.  Having 20 as your sticking point certainly isn’t going to win you every game.  But it should win you more games than any other strategy.

Amusing note: one person (Crocker) who solved this one added “This is kinda unfair on this one, I'm a poker player I do EV calcs all the damn time :p“.  But hey, everyone has their specialties :).

[paulspuzzles-blog]

Puzzle #6

Heading back to Techniquest for this one, although with a couple of differences:

This puzzle is actually based off a game rather than directly a puzzle in itself.

This game isn’t on our exhibition floor, but is part of a special yearly event we run called Mathamagic - for a few weeks every June, we run a special maths-themed event for Key Stage 3 (11-14yo) school groups.  It involves opening up the space on the normally-unused second floor (third floor for Americans / Japanese) of Techniquest, and filling it with extra maths-based puzzles and games.

The game is called Pig, it’s for two or more players, and all you need to play it is a fair six-sided die and some paper and pencils for scoring.

On your turn you roll the die, and if you get any number other than 1, you keep a mental note of it as your score for the turn.  You then have the option to twist or stick - either you can roll the die again, and keep adding to your score for this turn, or you stop rolling the die, add your current turn score onto your total score, and pass the die onto the next player.

Of course, there’s a catch or you’d just choose to twist forever.  The catch is that if you ever roll a 1, you score 0 for the turn, and also pass on the die.  The goal is to be the first player to get their total score to 100 points.

So it’s a game of risk-reward.  Stick too early, and you’re potentially passing up an opportunity to score more points.  Stick too late, and you risk losing too much.  So the puzzle is, when is the optimal time to stick?

(Assume a typical situation rather than an edge case like “I’m one die-roll from winning” or “my opponent is one die-roll from winning”).

[northerngospel]

The Risk/Reward Festival celebrates its sixth year in 2013. This annual West Coast micro-fest presents dance, theatre and music artists who are pushing the boundaries of live performance in new and innovative directions.  This year's lineup features: DANCE: Josh Martin / 605 Collective (Vancouver, BC); Shannon Stewart (Seattle, WA) PERFORMANCE ART: Wayne Bund (Portland, OR); AJA (Seattle, WA) THEATRE: LanceLife (Portland, OR), the Satori Group (Seattle, WA) When: Friday-Sunday, June 21-23 | 7:30 Fri & Sat, 5pm Sun Where: Artists Repertory Theatre, Alder Stage | 1516 Southwest Alder Street, Portland, OR Tix: www.risk-reward.org or the Artists Rep box office  $14-18 advanced sale, $20 at the door.  Info: [email protected] | 503-451-6569