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239/365 - Rise in Global Ocean Temperatures
Source: NOAA
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Tropical Storm Andrea has become the first Atlantic tropical cyclone of the season.
The good news is that Andrea is in the middle of nowhere and won't last long.
While it formed slightly later than the typical first cyclone of the year, it also formed further north than we would normally expect for a first storm
Warm seas act as jet fuel for tropical cyclones. The North Atlantic is warm this month.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in November, 2023.
by u/zethiroth
2020 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast Revised Upwards. ⇡
Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science and Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) work with NOAA in the area of tropical cyclone research. They issue periodic forecasts regarding hurricane activity. Their latest, issued five weeks before the traditional peak of the Atlantic Basin season, shows an upward revision.
FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2020
In early April, two months before the official start of the Atlantic season, they were predicting 16 named storms of which 8 would become hurricanes and 4 of the 8 would become major hurricanes. A major hurricane is Category 3 or higher.
That’s already notably above the average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. The revised forecast just issued estimates a total of 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
With only 35% of the season over, there have already been 9 named storms, 5 of which struck the US with 2 of those being hurricanes. Isaias brought widespread power outages and flooding. For a time, a third of New Jersey was without power. Remarkably, New York City has already been hit by two tropical storms in two months this year.
In the states that border the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, the possibility of experiencing a hurricane in 2020 has increased by roughly a third over the historical average.
Warm seas nurture and sustain tropical cyclones. Climate change is making the seas warmer. On the most recent weekly anomaly map from NOAA we see the North Atlantic clearly warmer than usual.
With this increased risk, we have an administration under Donald Trump which is doing its best to make climate change worse. And given the atrociously catastrophic way Trump has handled the pandemic, we should not expect any strike by a major hurricane to be addressed in a competent way.
a long pole to herd the whales; a moment of silence to let them pass
