#strongerforscotland

[hhawkeye]

when u meet ur fave politicians #snp #strongerforscotland 💛💛💛 (at Paisley)

[hhawkeye]

me and mum voting for the best party out there #snp #strongerforscotland

[dreamingthedream33-blog]

Anyway I showed up to Leith, Edinburgh. Saw another iconic woman who is as brave as Queen Ariana speak. Nicola Sturgeon pretty much said what needed to be said. #StrongerForScotland #SNP17 #GE2017 💛✌️️ (at South Leith, Edinburgh)

[belltheflippingcat]

The relentless rise of the SNP

2015 is shaping up, for Scotland at any rate, to be one of the most extraordinary elections we have ever had. A lot has been written about the why’s and wherefores around the robust polls predicting an historic SNP rout. Most have focused specifically on the independence referendum as if it was that which cause Scottish voting patterns to change. I’m not so sure its as simple as that though.

What I mean is that although indyref was a catalyst and certainly energised the political process, the movement towards the SNP has actually been going on for about a decade ago. Lets have a look at the vote share in Scotland for Westminster elections. I have added in current yougov poll data for 2015 (49% to 25%).

On the evidence of Westminster polling for the two parties in every election 1997 to 2010, Labour is polling roughly 40-46 with a very slight reduction over time while the SNP vote stays fairly rigid in a narrow band of 20-23. When you consider that over the time Labour nationally in the UK went from a landslide in 1997 to defeat in 2010 it is actually surprising that the Scottish vote shows only a small dip. But when you factor in the current yougov poll - it looks like a revolution with the Labour vote collapsing and the SNP vote going through the roof. 

But lets just look at what was happening in Holyrood over that time period. For those of you who don’t know, the Holyrood vote has two parts: a constituency vote and a vote for the supplementary list. That is why there are two lines for each party.

I’ve read several commentators marveling at the sophistication of Scottish voters that can vote one way at Westminster and another at Holyrood. And there is some evidence for that. At the first Holyrood elections the Labour vote is similar to that for Westminster with the SNP slightly higher. Both parties’ share of the vote drops in 2013 partly with the appearance of more minor parties and 4 local successful campaigns by independents. But then something extraordinary happens. While the Labour vote drops gently in 2007 and 2010 the SNP is on a sharp upward trajectory. What was happening? Well several things really. Alec Salmond was back in charge in 2007 and was a better leader than Swinney. The Iraq war had been a big focus and the SNP had been highly vocal in opposing it. But more realistically the almost total collapse of the Scottish Socialists (SSP) when Tommy Sheridan was on trial meant almost all their votes switched to the SNP. At the time it seemed the SNP had reached a high mark and it was expected that both Labour and a revived SSP would claw back votes in 2011. They didn’t. The big collapse in the LibDem vote in 2011 (they lost 12 seats on the back of public disappointment at their coalition with the Tories) added to easily the worst-handled Labour campaign in history (thanks to interference from the UK party) that in turn transformed a narrow Labour lead at the start of the campaign into a big SNP victory at the end.

So between 1997 and 2011 a lot of traditional Labour voters had switched to the SNP for Holyrood but actually, for most, the big switch was in 2011, 1 year after the 2010 election. The independence referendum campaign between 2011-2014 just reinforced that switch with much of the Scottish Labour left and center openly supporting the YES campaign. Post vote, with all the energy and positivity in the 45% who voted yes there is no longer a fear that an SNP vote at Westminster will not count, but more importantly there has been a tectonic shift in the voting public of Scotland that has probably been going on for the last decade.

What does this mean for the future? Personally I think this is a robust change. Sure, events can overtake any political reality but on the face of it the SNP look to be the dominant political force for some time to come. So grandstanding that this is the most dangerous party in Britain (I’m looking at you Mr Cameron) as if the vote will be some one-off blip is just idiotic brinkmanship. A wiser move would be to recognise the SNP position in Scotland as a present reality and try to find a constructive way to accommodate and respond to it. Im hoping that this is what Milliband will do come May 8.