#westminster2015

[belltheflippingcat]

The relentless rise of the SNP

2015 is shaping up, for Scotland at any rate, to be one of the most extraordinary elections we have ever had. A lot has been written about the why’s and wherefores around the robust polls predicting an historic SNP rout. Most have focused specifically on the independence referendum as if it was that which cause Scottish voting patterns to change. I’m not so sure its as simple as that though.

What I mean is that although indyref was a catalyst and certainly energised the political process, the movement towards the SNP has actually been going on for about a decade ago. Lets have a look at the vote share in Scotland for Westminster elections. I have added in current yougov poll data for 2015 (49% to 25%).

On the evidence of Westminster polling for the two parties in every election 1997 to 2010, Labour is polling roughly 40-46 with a very slight reduction over time while the SNP vote stays fairly rigid in a narrow band of 20-23. When you consider that over the time Labour nationally in the UK went from a landslide in 1997 to defeat in 2010 it is actually surprising that the Scottish vote shows only a small dip. But when you factor in the current yougov poll - it looks like a revolution with the Labour vote collapsing and the SNP vote going through the roof. 

But lets just look at what was happening in Holyrood over that time period. For those of you who don’t know, the Holyrood vote has two parts: a constituency vote and a vote for the supplementary list. That is why there are two lines for each party.

I’ve read several commentators marveling at the sophistication of Scottish voters that can vote one way at Westminster and another at Holyrood. And there is some evidence for that. At the first Holyrood elections the Labour vote is similar to that for Westminster with the SNP slightly higher. Both parties’ share of the vote drops in 2013 partly with the appearance of more minor parties and 4 local successful campaigns by independents. But then something extraordinary happens. While the Labour vote drops gently in 2007 and 2010 the SNP is on a sharp upward trajectory. What was happening? Well several things really. Alec Salmond was back in charge in 2007 and was a better leader than Swinney. The Iraq war had been a big focus and the SNP had been highly vocal in opposing it. But more realistically the almost total collapse of the Scottish Socialists (SSP) when Tommy Sheridan was on trial meant almost all their votes switched to the SNP. At the time it seemed the SNP had reached a high mark and it was expected that both Labour and a revived SSP would claw back votes in 2011. They didn’t. The big collapse in the LibDem vote in 2011 (they lost 12 seats on the back of public disappointment at their coalition with the Tories) added to easily the worst-handled Labour campaign in history (thanks to interference from the UK party) that in turn transformed a narrow Labour lead at the start of the campaign into a big SNP victory at the end.

So between 1997 and 2011 a lot of traditional Labour voters had switched to the SNP for Holyrood but actually, for most, the big switch was in 2011, 1 year after the 2010 election. The independence referendum campaign between 2011-2014 just reinforced that switch with much of the Scottish Labour left and center openly supporting the YES campaign. Post vote, with all the energy and positivity in the 45% who voted yes there is no longer a fear that an SNP vote at Westminster will not count, but more importantly there has been a tectonic shift in the voting public of Scotland that has probably been going on for the last decade.

What does this mean for the future? Personally I think this is a robust change. Sure, events can overtake any political reality but on the face of it the SNP look to be the dominant political force for some time to come. So grandstanding that this is the most dangerous party in Britain (I’m looking at you Mr Cameron) as if the vote will be some one-off blip is just idiotic brinkmanship. A wiser move would be to recognise the SNP position in Scotland as a present reality and try to find a constructive way to accommodate and respond to it. Im hoping that this is what Milliband will do come May 8.

[belltheflippingcat]

If Scottish labour had done the right thing. . .

As polls stand it looks unlikely that Jim Murphy can save Scottish labour. Ashcroft’s most recent constituency polling gives swings of up to 25% in labour’s strongest Scottish seats. The Guardian is predicting they will now lose almost all their Scottish seats. This is a remarkable collapse of what used to be the dominant political force in Scotland.

There is a very simple explanation: one third of labour voters supported the yes vote in the referendum and are now mostly planning to vote SNP. That explains why the seats where yes did best, the labour heartlands, are also the seats with the biggest swings to the SNP whereas liberal seats where yes did poorly only have small swings. One curious thing in today’s polls was the finding that labour yes voters who have switched to SNP are the group that most wants to see a labour victory in England. So these people have for the most part not abandoned their labour values and nevertheless the movement has been cleft in two.

Could this all have been avoided? Well yes I think it could. Back in 2011 I wrote an article calling for the Scottish party to have greater autonomy and use this to campaign for Devi max. This viewpoint was not mine alone but in the end it was the hard nosed unionists that won the toss and delivered us all to electoral oblivion.

To illustrate how I think an alternative parallel universe where Scottish labour prevails might work, let’s wind the clock back to 2011. Labour has just suffered a defeat after an historic landslide delivers an SNP majority …

Reeling from the blow the rump of Scottish labour assemble at holyrood to rake over the coals. There is general agreement that the campaign suffered from a conflict between the Scottish party and the Westminster party in how the campaign should be conducted. The undignified sudden change of direction mid way through the campaign was seen as the turning point when the SNP. Started to gain on Labour. There is a general consensus that while some of the blame could go either way, the biggest problem is the relationship between the Scottish party and the national party. A vote in the parliamentary party, the NEC and then conference decides that the Scottish Labour Party should separate completely from the national party but retain fraternal bonds with them.

Curiously, but wisely in the long run, ed Milliband decides to look favourably on this move and wins the argument with some of his Scottish colleagues who are alarmed by the move.

At that same Scottish conference there is a leadership election and Henry McLeish makes an unexpected comeback with Sarah Boyack as his deputy.

The SNP government have already started the ball rolling with a white paper suggestion that there be a third question relating to Devo Max. The shadow Scottish cabinet meet and agree that since Devo Plus is already labour policy following the Calman Commission that they will campaign in favour of the third question. When this is announced labour in Scotland gets an immediate significant poll boost. Of the three options increased devolution is and has been for some time a more popular option than either independence or the status quo and, seeing that this is the case, Milliband presses for the third question to be included for which he gains the support of some lib dems and Tories and the resulting Edinburgh agreement frames the referendum to include the third option.

Scottish labour front the campaign for Devo max with the SNP pushing independence and the Coalition pushing the status quo. Importantly they frame their campaign as a national debate on powers with a promise that a yes vote will result in a constitutional convention.

Across the country in town hall meetings and in public spaces a lively debate ensued. At a pivotal point in the campaign a prominent group of nationalists who favour a gradualist approach to independence switch to supporting Devo max"

By September the passionate debate and polls all point to a victory for the third question. On polling day Devo Max wins with over 70% support on an unprecedentedly high turnout. the SNP wins enough on the independence question not to be humiliated and the Coalition proclaim victory on the no vote for independence but pledge to work with all parties in the constitutional convention. But it is Labour, the champion of enhanced devolution, that is the main beneficiary. They finish the campaign United and even the small number of supporters that backed independence are enthusiastic about reform

The only group unhappy with the vote are a small group of ultraunionists headed by Jim Murphy but they are by now marginalised in the party by the scale of labour's victory

with the constitutional convention ongoing Scottish labours polling is soaring and in the 2015 election they gain 11 extra seats in Scotland mostly from the libdems to end up with a tally of 52 seats which allows them to enter a coalition with labour in England and form the next government of the UK.

A fantasy with a lot of improbable maybe but I hope that this blog has gone some way to show just how wrong I think Scottish labour have gone in recent years!

[bluhouseabout]

GCH Vincent de BluHouse, 3y  In NYC