This is a long and complex read--analysis by one of Josh Marshall's readers. It points to consequences of economic policies that have shaped our environment since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
I appreciate this person's take, because it cuts through a lot of the contorted rhetorical anguish I'm seeing in the folks who are 'analyzing' the defeat of Democrats (and democracy). So much of that is focused on TikTok atmospherics and the dark sorcery of identity politics, who to appear to be in order to get the electorate on your side. In contrast, this guy's read starts with economic history and draws compelling inferences that can potentially be communicated in very simple ways.
Hard to find a single quote to present here, but here's a chunk:
"Overnight, once results became clear, the market started discounting the effect of Trump’s stimulatory policies and the cost of credit began to spike. It’s a good sign that higher rates are ahead. In my mind, that higher cost of credit is likely to filter throughout the economy and cause a serious recession. During his term, either Trump chooses to raise interest rates to quell inflation and economic growth craters, or he removes the independence of the Fed (à la Erdogan), keeps rates lower and inflation spirals out of control. It’s one or the other; there’s no third option. The mass deportations and tariffs on imports planned are also expected to have the effect of driving inflation much higher by raising the cost of labor (which is passed along to the consumer) and by acting as a tax on everyday items, respectively. In short, I fully expect a serious economic meltdown in the next year or two, accelerated by Trump’s marquee policies. Already we are seeing a very low volume of home sales and less than robust job growth due to the high cost of credit.
"It is essential that the Democratic Party tie any recession in the coming years to the Trump agenda, and remind the American people that Trump has sold himself as the person who promised to fix it. To hold him completely responsible for any policy failures. My guess is that he will have, by far, the worst economic performance of the past 15 years during his term. If so, it would be in diametric opposition to voter expectations."
Job one is to understand. Job two is to communicate.
