The grand tradition of the heavyweight division is that there are fighters that just appear out of nowhere, blitz through the division to the top and then suffer a catastrophic loss that exposes their technical limitations. Think Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin, Francis Ngannou, etc. We tend to have so little tape on these guys on the way up because they just blow through everyone. Until they meet that one guy who figures them out. So far, we do not have that guy for Tom Aspinal.
Aspinall - What We Know
We have an extremely small sample size of Aspinall and his work despite him having 9 UFC fights. Aspinall is one of the freakier athletes we've had in the heavyweight division. A 6'5 250lb behemoth of a man with the explosiveness of a man 100lbs lighter. And it has helped him put away basically everyone he has fought inside of two minutes (outside of Andrei Arlovski). So we really have to go over everything with the finest toothed comb.
Tom's game on the feet revolves around two things - kicks at range and being able to explode into that 1-2-3. Aspinall is an incredibly hard kicker. He will throw kicks to the outside leg, body, and rear arm of his opponent - sometimes while floating around at range, sometimes while pressuring.
And he will kick from both legs. He’ll attack the body and rear hand with that lead leg, though he’ll sometimes opt to go for the step up inside kick too. With his rear leg, he favors those powerful outside leg kicks.
We’ve seen him also implement straight kicks to the lead leg as well against the likes of Andrei Arlovski and Alexander Volkov.
The kicks serve as bridges for his entries. They can be good bait for fighters to trail after him in hopes of landing counters or strand them out at range where you can’t force an engagement. The straight kick to the knee help Aspinall to disrupt his opponent’s stance/kicks, forcing them back on to the rear foot. Useful for slowing fights down and putting people on the fence. And if they step back into range with that foot, Aspinall can just chop at that leg as they replant.
Against Pavlovich, the kicks were a good set up for the 1-2 while he was circling along the cage. Pavlovich eats a kick but keeps following likely trying to force an engagement after tagging Aspinall early but can’t keep up with the speed of the engagement and gets timed planting down in front of Aspinall as a result.
I think the actual thing that makes Aspinall a potential future HW GOAT conversation fighter is his ability to transition to his grappling. The power hides the fact that Aspinall is actually a decently accomplished BJJ competitor, having won multiple competitions at the colored belt level while a teen. He’s not a big KO guy learning to grapple to stay on the feet - he’s a BJJ guy with striking skills. As such, he’s also shown some fantastic transitional skills. He’s able to use his speed and dexterity to create openings for takedowns.
Here Aspinall switches stances directly in front of Volkov but is able to reposition right as Volkov recognizes and tries to punish with the rear hand. Instead, Aspinall is able to get inside the punch while throwing own left. They both miss but with his head in Volkov’s chest and a deep underhook, Aspinall just locks up Volkov’s body and steps around for the easy trip takedown.
Later in that same fight, Volkov is back in open space and finally attempts to open up against Aspinall. But it ends up biting him. Volkov throws the kick as Aspinall leans back out the way. Volkov tries to make Aspinall pay for leaning by firing the cross trying to catch him as he comes back to his stance but he ends up stepping in on Aspinall, who slips and shoots a double leg. Who else is able to do that at heavyweight right now? It is a shame that this is just a part of his game we almost never get to see. Nothing here is revolutionary for MMA in general but at heavyweight, no one really fights like this. Similarly, against Arlovski you can see how quickly he transitions from the feet to scoring the takedown and the finish.
Possible Pathways to beat Aspinall
Already way too long a post so click read more
The issue with Aspinall is that he beats everyone fast. Out of his 9 UFC fights, only 1 has gone to the 2nd round. And most last no longer than like 90 seconds. He's incredibly potent and able to overwhelm most of his competition with his physical gifts. That said, more than "weaknesses", the thing that catches up with elite fighters are habits. And despite having a UFC career in-cage time of like 13 minutes, Aspinall has those.
The Pocket:
Tom Aspinall is that rare breed of heavyweight that moves his head. Not always super well, but he will slip punches or try to hide behind his shoulders on shots. As demonstrated in the gif of him slipping Volkov’s punch and then shooting underneath for the takedown, it is something in his arsenal. But he can be caught out of position.
Here Pavlovich tries to collapse the pocket with a big left hook before following it up with a right hand that misses by a hair as Aspinall is able to get his shoulder up as he attempts to exit out the pocket to Pavlovich’s power side. I wouldn’t call these strong positions from Aspinall, though I applaud his instincts here. A more daft and creative combination puncher might have been able to bait these movements out and punish them instead of trying to go for the kill shot with every punch. So why is this important?
The one place I think Aspinall can be caught unawares is in pocket exchanges. He is a big powerful dude who is used to his opponents crumbling when they feel his power and shrinking as they deal with his speed. The few times we have seen him clipped clean is when he is the result of him overstaying his welcome in front of his opponent or when he or his opponent try to push exchanges longer.
Scraping the bottom here for “bad” moments for Aspinall here but should be noted Tybura is his only southpaw opponent. Aspinall gets to his much loved 1-2-3, tagging Tybura with the last two shots. He exits the exchange at an angle but Tybura switches stances and follows him out. Aspinall goes back to the well with another 1-2-3 but Tybura throws the right hand over the jab while dipping to his left and tags Aspinall clean. Not exactly a huge shot or something that would benefit Tybura in the end but there’s a nucleus of an idea – punching with Aspinall as he tries to force his way forward isn’t always a bad idea. Especially since he’ll keep his chin up in the air like that.
Aspinall blasts Pavlovich with that crushing kick to the calf as he tepidly steps forward. Instead of backing out of the exchange, Pavlovich pushes forward with a 1-2-3-2. Aspinall, caught out of position as he tries to swing a left hook over the first 2 ends up eating that small left hook that generally affects him and a right hand as he tries to back out. While Pavlovich’s successful comeback against the leg kick might have given the overconfidence that ended the fight 20 seconds later, he did manage to surprise Aspinall by putting punches together directly in front of him. Speaking of punishing kicks.
2. Sometimes he’s on one leg:
When you’re as fast and hit as hard as Aspinall, you get away with a lot. Earlier I mentioned Aspinall’s range game basically boils down to kicks and jab feints/fake blitz entries. While Aspinall is good at timing kicks for when his opponent plants their lead foot or is in the middle of movement, he’ll often just throw. This leaves him open to the most common type of MMA blunder - getting hit clean while kicking. To date the only person I’ve been able to find to make him pay for this specific habit has been 6’7 Alexander Volkov.
Aspinall has Volkov on the fence, looking to put together combos. He whips a leg kick from his power leg to attack Volkov’s lead leg as they settle into a spot. Volkov eats it and tries to create space by jabbing to the body. Volkov backs away but plants to fire a 1-2 as Aspinall goes to throw the switch kick and ends up on his butt. Thanks to Aspinall’s good durability, he manages to recover and get back to work. But another inch or two and that could have been a serious disaster for Aspinall. Someone some day will make Aspinall pay for his comfort of just kicking dudes while standing directly in front of them with little to no set up. It does not matter how good that chin is. You crack a guy with good timing while he’s on one leg, it’s a bad time for him. If I had to guess what will happen the first time we see Aspinall seriously hurt, it’s going to be when someone cracks while he’s kicking.
3. Completely Speculative:
It’s at this point where we have to start speculating on possible weaknesses for Aspinall. There is just not enough tape. You can watch his entire 9 fight UFC career on your 15 minute break at work. So it is at this point we have to start looking at stereotypical holes in MMA fighters and guess from there.
The first and possibly most pressing question is how does Aspinall deal with southpaws? He’s incredibly dependent on his jab to close distance. Does he still have the same level of comfort throwing the jab as an entry against southpaws? We only really have the Marcin Tybura fight to draw from and Tybura is not a striker. What little we saw was promising but it was also typical MMA answers - his first proper strike was an open side head kick that rattled Tyrbua. He did throw the jab a couple of times as a throw away for the rear hand. But it’s not much to go on because it seems pretty clear Aspinall had no respect for Tybura’s striking.
The other big question mark we have on Aspinall is the man is 18 fights deep, he’s never been to a decision. In fact, he’s been to the 2nd round three times in his career - and he lost two of them (1 was a DQ and the other a heel hook). Is this evidence that his game and decision making might become less concentrated as the fight moves deeper? How does he handle resistance? Not just getting hit hard but someone who is actively trying to frustrate him? Think of the first fight between Francis Ngannou and Stipe Miocic. Does he make an adjustment or does he double down until he blows his gas tank? These are questions that Aspinall will eventually have to answer. How soon though? Not sure.
Specific Concerns Against Gane
So the most glaring potential problem for Aspinall in this fight is the obvious - Cyril Gane is a southpaw. Well, Gane will fight out of both southpaw and orthodox, but if memory serves Gane's most consistent offense comes from southpaw. The only southpaw Aspinall has faced in the UFC thus far has been Marcin Tybura. Not exactly a comparable match up to the fleet-footed Frenchman. And in that fight, when Tybura did manage to draw Aspinall into an extended exchange, he clipped him. Didn't seem to bother Aspinall at all but worth noting.
But Gane is not a pocket fighter. He doesn’t look good throwing more than 1 strike at a time and when he is forced to, his technique breaks down to a near comical extent. And while Gane hits hard, he does not have the one punch power. Not in the way most heavyweights do. In part because he has some of the worst punch mechanics on his rear hand that I’ve ever seen in a striker who has climbed up to title contention.
Gane will often just take his back foot off the ground with his chin in the air as he tries to land the cross. If Aspinall has papered over his game with his athletic gifts, then Gane is on a whole other level. Gane’s strengths as a striker come from his speed and size. He’s able to get himself out of these bad situations because opponents tend to be too slow or too far away to react accordingly. Except when he meets someone who uses his strikes as entries to close distance for takedowns.
Over committing on a right hand, dragging the rear foot forward and walking into a takedown? Look familiar?
Gane often ends up on the fence, but because of his size and habit of switching stances is only rarely punished. But with someone just as fast, long and powerful who is willing to throw away strikes and kick the legs to get what he wants like Aspinall I see that being a problem. We’ve seen that Aspinall will punish kicks with takedowns and kicks of his own as well. He used those push kicks to the leg to counter kicks from Volkov and Arlovski.
So what is Gane’s path to victory? I think Gane can win this fight by keeping it in the center of the cage. Keep moving and use the jab to break Aspinall’s rhythm so he never gets the entries. Gane’s strengths as a fighter are to not stand directly in front of his opposition. He understands that exchanges are about angles and that he should be trying to find exit angles after he attacks. If he can use his own power kicks in this open guard (southpaw vs orthodox) match up to attack Aspinall’s power hand and force him to keep it chambered, he could theoretically slow down Tom and carry him deep into the 3rd round and beyond in this fight. Attack all three levels (head, body, and legs). Wait out all that explosiveness early and see if Tom can make adjustments as he gets tired out late while dealing with kicks and resets. And if Aspinall isn’t pressuring, that makes it all the easier for Gane to just float about picking off shots.
But I do not trust Gane to do it. Gane would need to fight the perfect fight. He’s got the physical tools, but every time he’s been at this level he comes up short. While we’ve never seen Aspinall in there in his physical/athletic equal, we’ve seen Gane. And it’s not gone well. I predict Aspinall will find a takedown early and just punish Gane from that position.
A disheveled inkling man sits out in his backyard on a lawnchair, an unopened can of beer in hand. He looks up to the sky, despite the fact he knew that he wouldn't see any stars because he lived in the city. It didn't matter to him. At least the moon was out.
He opens up the can of beer slowly, just so that the foam wouldn't spill all over him. He takes a deep breath.
"Happy birthday, Summers," he says out loud, despite the fact he was alone in the yard. "Wish I could celebrate with ya, brother."
He takes a big swig of his beer and puts the can down on the ground next to him. He sits there in silence, thinking to himself. It may have been eleven years since the disappearance of his best friend, and sure the fact that his friend never told him where he was going or why he left still stung to this day, at least a little bit, but the inkling man still cared about his long lost friend. Despite everything, he still hopes to one day reunite with him. He was well aware of how much of a movie trope that sounded, but it didn't matter to him.
No matter how long it takes, no matter where or how, he'd welcome back his friend with open arms.
"You should teach me," declared Iris, with the full confidence of six years old. She was in first grade! She was learning all sorts of things! And if Gladio could do it, surely it was a thing that kids could learn!
Gladio, already well into another growth spurt and not expected to slow down anytime soon, looked between the sword in his hands and his sister. While it was very, very tempting to just hand the blade to her and let her learn for herself how heavy it was, that seemed like the sort of thing that he'd get in trouble for. If she got hurt, he was the one who knew better.
"You're not strong enough," he said, the full authority of fifteen slightly reduced by his voice breaking.
It was the wrong answer.
Iris pouted. "I am so! Stronger than you!"
Now that was just funny. Gladio planted the point of the blade, standing it aside in a way that their dad would yell about if he saw it. He crossed his arms and tilted his chin. "Uh huh? You gonna prove that?"
"Yeah!" She didn't attempt to wrestle him this time, instead standing upright and bringing her feet together at the heels. "Do this!"
This made no sense to Gladio, but he was curious now. He stood with his heels together, which wasn't right, as Iris then corrected him. Not just heels together, but feet in a line, which left him off balance and struggling because legs weren't supposed to bend like that.
He was about to say that it was stupid, but Iris was already beaming that she'd won, and if he gave up now she was going to say that she'd won, even if she didn't.
"You're still not stronger than me." He argued, though his calves were starting to hurt.
"Then do this!" She added, holding her arms out to her sides like she was expecting a hug. When he did nothing, she huffed. "If I last longer than you, you have to teach me to fight and... and..." Clearly she was struggling for more consequences that he would want to avoid. "And you'll have to wear a tutu!"
He was going to ask what would happen if he won, but first he tried to match what she was doing with her arms and it was too much for him to balance when his feet were in a line and his thighs were cramping. He caught himself and pushed himself back into position. She was six, surely he could manage at least until she got tired, right?
His legs were killing him and his shoulders were starting to complain. It was just standing, so why--
"Your arms are dropping!" Iris called out, bright, teasing, and sounding suspiciously like she'd heard the same thing many times before.
Gladio learned two things that day: one, that ballerinas were stronger than he'd given them credit for, and two, when engaged in a contest of strength, to chose the field of competition himself.
A flickering bulb strains against the dark. We sit beneath it, across from each other. Wall to wall, eye to eye.
The light is dying, but we are alive.
I reach for your hand —
there’s your warmth, knuckles pressing close.
My eyes learn the dark, shape you out of absence, trace you from memory.
We doze off. Here, here, here.
And I breathe easy, because you are.
Then time forgets itself.
The bulb flickers one last time, and I stop seeing at all.
But still, I call.
"Here."
I stop.
Then — an answer, distant. Hollow.
A shape without a body. A sound without weight.
I reach again, fingertips searching every inch —
but instead of you, only the smooth wall.
Was it always that cold?
"Here," I call once more.
"Here," I hear, my own voice falling back onto me.
Not you.
Not even the shadow of you.
Just me.
I let the quiet settle. It has been here far longer than I knew.
Maybe I only just noticed the empty space where you used to be.
When did you leave?
Why didn't you nudge me back awake?
It's time to go home, the hallway's empty.
I won't shut the door. The wind will.
You know where to find me.
Additional Tags: Complicated Relationships, Messy, Drunkeness, Steppe Linguistics, Tension, Sexual Tension, (Unsatisfying) Sexual Content, Fellatio & Other Activities, Voyeurism, dubcon, Grief, Dickishness & Assholery, A Spot of Blood, humor (maybe), Just Colleagues Being Bros Being Gays, GUYS, i meant guys, Minor Character Death Mentioned, Post-Diurnal Ending (Pathologic), Some Fist Swinging, I add some of my own nonsense to canon as usual, twyrine, Desperation, Tenderness, Drama
Summary:
Two healers walk into a bar and get drunk. One‘s grieving, the other‘s aggrieved. One‘s the heart, the other‘s the mind. One‘s a scalpel, the other‘s a microscope, or gun, or something. One‘s a surgeon, so on so forth. At least one of them has a dirty secret. Some vague and ill-fated amorous notion hangs over the whole grievous affair and—Punchline? What punchline? This is a confession…
My skin crawls. My eyes itch and bleed. I cry deep in my prison of skin. Can anyone see me?
Am I alive anymore. I no longer know. My fingers bleed and stretch. My bones are not my bones. My teeth are broken, my tongue scarred. I am a beast of shame and horror. A monster in a people suit.
The people forgave me. You are a fool for your ignorance. It is not enough to be forgiven. I am dead. And the blood trails my weary bones. You cannot see the way my bones ache for my own final rest. I continue to walk among the people. They are blind of the trail that follows in my wake.
