So we saw everything this season from Harvey through to Pippin, and tonight at 8pm on CBS is Broadways biggest night, THE TONYS! But before that happens were throwing our hat into the ring and trying to be the Nate Silver of Broadway by predicting whose going to walk away with a statue tonight!.
Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike
Who Will Win: Vanya & Sonia and Masha & Spike
Who Should Win: See Above
Baring a sympathetic steal from Lucky Guy, Durang will walk away with his first win after decades of excellent plays with one of the most hysterical plays in recent memory.
A Christmas Story, The Musical
Who Will Win: Kinky Boots
Who Should Win: Matilda
We will see a reverse of last years Once vs Newsies battle and Kinky will walk away with the big musical prize of the night.While not a bad show, Matilda is the more cerebral of the two and should have had this in the bag.
Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Who Will Win: Bountiful
Who Should Win: Virginia Woolf
Were thinking this could go either way, but the edge goes to Bountiful. Woolf has been closed for ages and their recent flap with the TONY nominating committee hasnt helped matters, which is a shame because it was an astounding production, however we wont be shattered if George and Martha Get The TONY.
Best Revival of a Musical
The Mystery of Edwin Drood
Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella
Who Will Win: Pippin
Who Should Win: Pippin
The biggest lock of the night, and will give Diane Paulus her third revival tony.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Tom Hanks – Lucky Guy as Mike McAlary
Nathan Lane – The Nance as Chauncey
Tracy Letts – Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? as George
David Hyde Pierce – Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike as Vanya
Tom Sturridge – Orphans as Phillip
Who Will Win: Tom Hanks
Who Should Win: Tracy Letts
Hanks is giving a great performance and has been charming voters at events, edge to him. And again time is against Woolf and unfortunately Letts will get the shaft on a performance most considered to be ground breaking for a theatrical character that has exsisted for half a century.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Laurie Metcalf – The Other Place as Juliana Smithton
Amy Morton – Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? as Martha
Kristine Nielsen – Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike as Sonia
Holland Taylor – Ann as Ann Richards
Cicely Tyson – The Trip to Bountiful as Miss Carrie Watts
Who Will Win: Cicely Tyson
Who Should Win: Cicely Tyson
Who Gets Screwed By Being In The Wrong Category: Kristen Nielsen
When your 88 and give a fantastic performance 8 times a week, your a lock. And unfortunately due to an error on the nominating committees part, Nielsen will lose out on a supporting actress in a play category which should have rightfully been hers.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Bertie Carvel – Matilda the Musical as Miss Trunchbull
Santino Fontana – Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella as Prince Topher
Rob McClure – Chaplin as Charlie Chaplin
Billy Porter – Kinky Boots as Lola
Stark Sands – Kinky Boots as Charlie Price
Who Will Win: Billy Porter
Who Should Win: Billy Porter
Who Gets Screwed By Being In The Wrong Category: Bertie Carvel
Carvel is in the same boat as Nielsen and really should be rewarded for a chameleon turn as the villainous Ms Trunchbull, but Porter is bringing down the Hirschfeld as the transvestite with a heart of gold (and a pair of red boots) Lola.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Stephanie J. Block – The Mystery of Edwin Drood as Edwin Drood / Miss Alice Nutting
Carolee Carmello – Scandalous as Aimee Semple McPherson
Valisia LeKae – Motown: The Musical as Diana Ross
Patina Miller – Pippin as The Leading Player
Laura Osnes – Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella as Ella
Who Will Win: Patina Miller
Who Should Win: Patina Miller
Patina will take the prize for a wicked performance in a part that has been associated with one performer for 4 decades, but beware the girl with the glass slippers (Laura Osnes) could snag it.
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Danny Burstein – Golden Boy as Tokio
Richard Kind – The Big Knife as Marcus Hoff
Billy Magnussen – Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike as Spike
Tony Shalhoub – Golden Boy as Mr. Bonaparte
Courtney B. Vance – Lucky Guy as Hap Hairston
Who Will Win:Courtney B. Vance
Who Should Win: Billy Magnussen
We weren’t quiet sure where to put our money on this so these predictions are kind of a shot in the dark.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Carrie Coon – Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? as Honey
Shalita Grant – Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike as Cassandra
Judith Ivey – The Heiress as Lavinia Penniman
Judith Light – The Assembled Parties as Faye
Condola Rashād – The Trip to Bountiful as Thelma
Who Will Win: Judith Light
Who Should Win: Judith Light
This is a lock and Light will walk away with her second TONY
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Charl Brown – Motown: The Musical as Smokey Robinson
Keith Carradine – Hands on a Hardbody as JD Drew
Will Chase – The Mystery of Edwin Drood as John Jasper / Mr. Clive Paget
Gabriel Ebert – Matilda the Musical as Mr. Wormwood
Terrence Mann – Pippin as King Charles
Who Will Win: Terrence Mann
Who Should Win: Keith Carradine
Carvel being taken out of the category kind of left it wide open, while we really enjoyed Carradine in Hardbody, we think Mann will squeeze out a win.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Annaleigh Ashford – Kinky Boots as Lauren
Victoria Clark – Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella as Marie - Fairy Godmother
Andrea Martin – Pippin as Berthe
Keala Settle – Hands on a Hardbody as Norma Valverde
Lauren Ward – Matilda the Musical as Miss Jennifer “Jenny” Honey
Who Will Win: Andrea Martin
Who Should Win: Andrea Martin
As much as we love Keala, she will have her day but it wont be this year, because when you cause mid-show standing ovations for your performance your a lock and we couldn’t be happier for Ms Martin.
A Christmas Story, The Musical – Joseph Robinette
Kinky Boots – Harvey Fierstein
Matilda the Musical – Dennis Kelly
Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella – Douglas Carter Beane
Who Will Win: Dennis Kelly
Who Should Win: Dennis Kelly
With Kinky winning best musical we feel the trade off will be Dennis winning for his really smart book.
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
A Christmas Story, The Musical – Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (music and lyrics)
Hands on a Hardbody – Trey Anastasio (music) and Amanda Green(music and lyrics)
Kinky Boots – Cyndi Lauper (music and lyrics)
Matilda the Musical – Tim Minchin (music and lyrics)
Who Will Win: Cyndi Lauper
Who Should Win: Tim Minchin
Will be honest, we think Minchin is going to really get screwed on this one, and Lauper will make tony history in the process as the first woman to win score on her own, for a score that while it has its moments isn’t spectacular.
Best Scenic Design of a Play
John Lee Beatty – The Nance
Santo Loquasto – The Assembled Parties
David Rockwell – Lucky Guy
Michael Yeargan – Golden Boy
Who Will Win: John Lee Beatty
Who Should Win: John Lee Beatty
John cube of a set featuring an apartment a stage and a backstage was really neat and stands out against the other three sets.
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Rob Howell – Matilda the Musical
Anna Louizos – The Mystery of Edwin Drood
David Rockwell – Kinky Boots
Who Will Win: Scott Pask
Who Should Win: Scott Pask
We cant go into much without ruining the end of Pippin but for those who have seen the show, you understand why were giving this award to Pippin.
Best Costume Design of a Play
Soutra Gilmour – Cyrano de Bergerac
Albert Wolsky – The Heiress
Catherine Zuber – Golden Boy
Who Will Win: Ann Roth
Who Should Win: Albert Wolsky
Ann Roths burlesque costumes are stunning and fresh in the mind of voters, however don’t be surprised is Wolsky picks this one up as this one has tended to go to period plays.
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes – Kinky Boots
Rob Howell – Matilda the Musical
Dominique Lemieux – Pippin
William Ivey Long – Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella
Who Will Win: Gregg Barnes
Who Should Win: Dominique Lemieux
As much as we love Lemieux’s old school circus costumes, this one will go to the flashy costumes of Kinky Boots.
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer – Lucky Guy
Donald Holder – Golden Boy
Jennifer Tipton – The Testament of Mary
Japhy Weideman – The Nance
Who Will Win: Japhy Welderman
Who Should Win: Japhy Welderman
Welderman essentially designed two lighting designs for this piece, the one in the Lyceum and the lighting design for the burlesque theater within the show.
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kenneth Posner – Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella
Kenneth Posner – Kinky Boots
Hugh Vanstone – Matilda the Musical
Who Will Win: Hugh Vanstone
Who Should Win: Kenneth Posner
Were choosing to be ballsy and think Posner will split the votes three ways causing Vanstone to slip in for a win.
Best Sound Design of a Play
John Gromada – The Trip to Bountiful
Mel Mercier – The Testament of Mary
Leon Rothenberg – The Nance
Peter John Still and Marc Salzberg – Golden Boy
Who Will Win: Mel Mercier
Who Should Win: Mel Mercier
While it may be shuttered we think Mary will pick up this award for Merciers extremely creepy sound design.
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Jonathan Deans and Garth Helm – Pippin
Peter Hylenski – Motown: The Musical
John Shivers – Kinky Boots
Nevin Steinberg – Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella
Who Will Win: Jonathan Deans and Garth Helm
Who Should Win: Jonathan Deans and Garth Helm
This show sounded great and Pippin should pick up yet another statue here.
Pam MacKinnon – Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Nicholas Martin – Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike
Bartlett Sher – Golden Boy
George C. Wolfe – Lucky Guy
Who Will Win: George C. Wolfe
Who Should Win: Pam MacKinnon
MacKinnon shot a huge burst of light into Woolf, but Wolfe brought a piece to the stage without the right hand assistance of the playwright and taking on such a herculean task even if the play wasnt amazing should lead him to a win.
Best Direction of a Musical
Scott Ellis – The Mystery of Edwin Drood
Jerry Mitchell – Kinky Boots
Matthew Warchus – Matilda the Musical
Who Will/Should Win: Diane Paulus: Paulus has lead two previous revivals to wins but has walked away without a tony of her own, this year is all hers and is pretty much a lock.
Andy Blankenbuehler – Bring It On: The Musical
Peter Darling – Matilda the Musical
Jerry Mitchell – Kinky Boots
Who Will Win: Chet Walker
Who Should Win: Chet Walker
Chet Walker created an homage to Fosse but made it his own, but could that also possibly bite him in the back?
Christopher Nightingale –Matilda the Musical
Stephen Oremus–Kinky Boots
Ethan Popp and Bryan Crook –Motown: The Musical
Danny Troob–Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella
Who Will Win: Christopher Nightingale
Who Should Win: Christopher Nightingale
Were taking a shot in the dark on this one, but Matilda seems like a good bet here.
Pippin: 8
Kinky Boots:4
Lucky Guy: 3
Matilda:3
The Nance:3
Bountiful: 2
The Testament of Mary:1
The Assembled Parties:1
Vanya & Sonya & Masha & Spike:1