Keep in mind, this is what I think WILL win, not necessarily what SHOULD win (for example, Moonlight should win Best Picture, but it probably won’t).
Best Picture: La La Land
I loved La La Land, but I recognize its problems and don’t think it’s a particularly (historically) important film. Moonlight is almost the opposite of La La Land. It’s subtle, dark (both cinematically and thematically at points), and portrays a story we don’t often seen. La La Land is the least polarizing choice, however. It’s also more of an escapist film. In today’s climate, people are probably looking to escape into their entertainment. This being said, Moonlight balances pain and joy with such grace. It’s a film about finding acceptance and peace. It’s beautiful. You get invested without being manipulated. I actually felt more hopeful at the end of Moonlight than I did La La Land. We need more films like Moonlight. Even though La La Land will probably win, Moonlight is a work of art.
Lead Actor: Denzel Washington (Fences)
After Washington won the SAG award (and like...a billion other awards) for his role in Fences, it was pretty clear the Oscar is going to him. Casey Affleck but the his initial buzz died down pretty quickly. Good.
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
It’s just kind of a given.
Lead Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Also a given. The only possible upset is Isabelle Huppert and while Huppert won at the Golden Globes, that’s not gonna happen here.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)
Duh.
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Not only is it Disney, but it’s “woke” Disney. The Academy can once again suck Disney’s dick, but this time they don’t have to feel bad about it because Zootopia is socially conscious. But tbh it’s just winning for that tiger that will do you right.
Cinematography: La La Land
Honestly I’d be happy with any of the nominees winning in this category. All the films are beautiful and deserve cinematic praise. But La La Land is La La Land. Voters are gonna go with that dancing among the stars scene.
Costume Design: Jackie
It’s a period piece. Specifically a 60s piece. Also people are obsessed with Jackie O.
Directing: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
I don’t really have a reason, it’s just probably gonna happen. He’ll be the youngest person to win this. He did a great job directing La La Land. He’s clearly a great director (I mean, Whiplash). I just think Barry Jenkins is more subtle and I appreciate that.
Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America
Unfortunately the buzz around this massive film will beat out 13th and I Am Not Your Negro.
Documentary Short: The White Helmets
I would usually choose “Joe’s Violin” to win this category. It actually would not be the first time a short about a Holocaust survivor and their relationship with music won. However, “The White Helmets” is about first responders in Aleppo. In our political climate, particularly surrounding refugee debates, I think “The White Helmets” will come out on top.
Film Editing: La La Land
Tom Cross won it for Whiplash and he’ll probably do it again for La La Land. Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival are more typical choices for this category as well, but they’ll probably split some votes, leaving the musical on top.
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
A Man Called Ove or Toni Erdamann (both quirky dramedies) are also typical category picks that most likely won’t make the cut in this political climate. After the travel ban and director Asghar Farad’s promised boycott of the awards ceremony, Iran’s The Salesman gained buzz and will probably come out on top in an attempt to send a message to Trump.
Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Even if I thought Suicide Squad could win (which it could) I wouldn’t even list it as a prediction. And honestly all that crazy alien makeup in Star Trek is way more deserving of the award than the people who dyed the tips of Margot Robbie’s hair and wrote “damaged” on Jared Leto’s forehead. Lol fuck Suicide Squad.
Original Score: La La Land
I mean...of course. La La Land had its problems, but the score sure as hell wasn’t one of them.
Original Song: “City of Stars” La La Land
This song is beautiful and also way better than the “Audition” song. Some people think that the two La La Land songs will split votes and Moana will come out on top, but honestly I think everyone’s favorite song from La La Land was “City of Stars” (also it’s the reoccurring theme of the movie), so I don’t think it will have any trouble winning.
Production Design: La La Land
I really want Arrival to win this with its eerie and quiet feel, but La La Land ends the movie with that huge high-production montage. Arrival could still win (and I hope so), but La La Land will probably sweep.
Animated Short: Piper
It’s a charming Pixar film, of course it’s gonna win. It’s probably adorable and lovely. It does’t matter how artful or innovative or amazing the other shorts are. If Disney or Pixar has a charming animated short among the nominees...it’s gonna win.
Live Action Short: Ennemis Intérieurs
It’s a timely piece about hardships immigrants (a Muslim immigrant in this case) must face. There are crowd pleasers in this category, but the relevance of “Ennemis Intérieurs” will probably push it to the top.
Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
War film with lots of crazy sound shit going on. I would say La La Land again, but a lot of times the more action driven films top in this category.
Sound Mixing: La La Land
I don’t usually find myself voting for two different films in the sound categories, but in this case Hacksaw Ridge and La La Land are the two types of films that typically top sound categories: war film and musicals.
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Like did you see Jungle Book.
Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Um, it’s gorgeous. It should win and it will. Lion is its only competition, but the Academy will want to give Moonlight something more than an acting category.
Original Screenplay: Manchester By the Sea
La La Land may technically be more “original” but Manchester By the Sea seems very...original screenplay winner. Also, everyone forgot about this movie with the La La Land vs. Moonlight race, so they’ll probably throw it something in this category. La La Land could still win. Honestly I’d rather see it win over Manchester. ACTUALLY I’d most like to see the absurd script for The Lobster win. That script is miles more original than anything else in the category.
Basically, expect La La Land to pull a Chicago. Great film, but doesn’t necessarily deserve to sweep the way it’s going to.
Last year, the Oscars were called out for being SO white (about 89% white). Pressure from the industry and movie fans seemed to bring around movies with some more representation in them. Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, and Moonlight, feature POC in their leading roles and have each received numerous nominations, including Best Picture.
This being said, things aren’t perfect. La La Land could still beat Moonlight for Best Picture. Affleck could still beat Washington for Lead Actor. Obviously, each year will fluctuate in different types of representation, but white men still dominate significantly in the nominees (and the film industry in general). BUT this fact does not diminish the great artists endeavors of the POC and women that have been nominated this year.
So while it may look more representative in terms of race and gender, there is still much work to be done. The same percentage of white men were nominated this year as last year (67%). So, while there is technically better representation this year, the representation is just more spread out in that last 33% between white women, men of color, and women of color. This means that the representation of white men has not been impacted at all.
Keep reading to see my complete race and gender breakdown of all 218 nominees at this year’s Oscars.
Overall, the representation of white individuals went down by 5% from last year and POC representation increased by 5%. Male representation increased by 1% and female representation decreased by 1%.
Like I said before, white male representation stayed the same. White female representation decreased by 5%. Representation of men of color increased by 1%. Representation of women of color increased by 4%.
The biggest difference seen from last year’s Oscars is the increased representation of women of color. While still an embarrassingly small number (10 out of 218), their representation increased more than any other group. In fact, while they dominated 0 of the 22 categories they could be nominated in last year, this year WOC dominate the Supporting Actress category.
So...I don’t know what else to call this besides baby steps? Things are better than last year. We still don’t see women as celebrated directors or cinematographers. The industry still considers one POC nominee “diverse.” The only way this is going to be fixed is if more opportunities are given to more types of people at all stages of the film industry, from acting to sound mixing to writing and everything in between. We shall have to see if this increased representation continues at the awards ceremony tomorrow...
NOTE: Before you read the breakdown, understand that the numbers in parentheses are the percentages from my breakdown last year.
Best Picture
19/30 WM 63% (62%)
8/30 WW 26% (29%)
2/30 MOC 6% (8%)
1/30 WOC 3% (0%)
Actor in a Leading Role
4/5 WM 80% (100%)
1/5 MOC 20% (0%)
Actor in a Supporting Role
3/5 WM 60% (100%)
2/5 MOC 40% (0%)
Actress in a Leading Role
4/5 WW 80% (100%)
1/5 WOC 20% (0%)
Actress in a Supporting Role
3/5 WOC 60% (0%)
2/5 WW 40% (100%)
Animated Feature Film
9/12 WM 75% (60%)
2/12 WW 16% (0%)
1/12 MOC 8% (30%)
0/12 WOC 0% (10%)
Cinematography
3/5 WM 60% (80%)
2/5 MOC 40% (20%)
0/5 women 0% (0%)
Costume Design
5/5 WW 100% (80%)
0/5 WM 0% (20%)
0/5 POC 0% (0%)
Directing
4/5 WM 80% (80%)
1/5 MOC 20% (20%)
0/5 women 0% (0%)
Documentary Feature
4/12 WM 33% (63%)
4/12 MOC 33% (9%)
3/12 WW 25% (27%)
1/12 WOC 8% (0%)
Documentary Short
4/8 WM 50% (57%
)3/8 WW 37% (28%)
1/8 WOC 12% (14%)
0/8 MOC 0% (0%)
Film Editing
5/6 WM 83% (50%)
1/6 WOC 16% (0%)
0/6 WW 0% (50%)
0/6 MOC 0% (0%)
Foreign Language Film
4/6 WM 66% (40%)
1/6 MOC 16% (40%)
1/6 WW 16% (0%)
0/6 WOC 0% (20%)
Makeup and Hairstyling
5/7 WM 71% (50%)
1/7 WW 14% (50%)
1/7 MOC 14% (0%)
0/7 WOC 0% (0%)
Music (Original Score)
5/6 WM 83% (100%)
1/6 WW 16% (0%)
0/6 POC 0% (0%)
Music (Original Song)
11/12 WM 91% (55%)
1/12 MOC 8% (33%)
0/12 WW 0% (11%)
0/12 WOC 0% (0%)
Production Design
6/10 WM 60% (63%)
3/10 WW 30% (36%)
1/10 MOC 10% (0%)
0/10 WOC 0% (0%)
Short Film (Animated)
6/8 WM 75% (37%)
1/8 MOC 12% (37%)
1/8 WW 12% (25%)
0/8 WOC 0% (0%)
Short Film (Live Action)
6/8 WM 75% (71%)
1/8 MOC 12% (14%)
1/8 WW 12% (14%)
0/8 WOC 0% (0%)
Sound Editing
6/9 WM 66% (87%)
2/9 WW 22% (0%)
1/9 WOC 11% (0%)
0/9 MOC 0% (12%)
Sound Mixing
15/16 WM 93% (93%)
1/16 WOC 6% (0%)
0/16 MOC 0% (6%)
0/16 WW 0% (0%)
Visual Effects
18/20 WM 90% (95%)
2/20 MOC 10% (0%)
0/20 WW 0% (5%)
0/20 WOC 0% (0%)
Adapted Screenplay
3/7 WM 42% (66%)
3/7 MOC 42% (0%)
1/7 WW 14% (33%)
0/7 WOC 0% (0%)
Original Screenplay
6/6 WM 100% (78%)
0/6 WW 0% (14%)
0/6 MOC 0% (7%)
0/6 WOC 0% (0%)
Total nominees: 218 (210)
Total WM nominees: 146 or 67% (67%)
Total WW nominees: 38 or 17% (22%)
Total MOC nominees: 24 or 11% (10%)
Total WOC nominees: 10 or 5% (1%)
84% white (89%)
78% male (77%)
22% female (23%)
16% POC (11%)
Categories in which WM dominate: Best Picture, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, Animated Feature Film, Cinematography, Directing, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, Film Editing, Foreign Language Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay
21/22 categories (21/22 last year as well)
Categories in which WW dominate: Lead Actress, Costume Design
2/22 categories (5/22 last year)
Categories in which MOC dominate: Documentary Feature, Adapted Screenplay
2/22 categories (2/22 last year)
Categories in which WOC dominate: Supporting Actress
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