From Sherlock’s POV, Janine’s role in HLV makes total sense. But from Janine’s POV? No chance. She’s playing him.
1) Janine’s in Sherlock’s bedroom when Sherlock says he’s going after CAM. This is the big one. She can hear him. She even admits she heard him when she comes out of Sherlock’s bedroom. Then Sherlock goes on to tell John about CAM while Janine’s getting dressed in his bedroom. So she knows Sherlock’s dating her to get to CAM. We know from their interaction in the hospital that she and Sherlock weren’t working together, yet she can clearly hear him at this point.
2) Sherlock’s fake seduction plot is pretty terrible. I don’t care how good looking he is: we’re moving out of the realm of adorably eccentric and into the realm of creepy stalker. He takes her to his flat and has her sleep there when he’s not there… what kind of message even is that? When a guy I’ve known for a month proposes to me, my reaction is not “How sweet!” It’s “Oh, shit.” And we’ve all talked about the least sexy kiss in this history of mankind:
We know they’re not having sex, despite the fact that Janine would’ve liked to:
JANINE: Just once would’ve been nice.
So she’s definitely not hanging around Sherlock for the great sex.
3) She knows he’s not interested in her in TSoT, yet she still dates him in HLV. At the wedding, she says:
JANINE (sighing wistfully): I wish you weren’t … whatever it is you are.
So she clearly knows Sherlock’s not interested/capable of having a romantic and/or sexual relationship with her. Yet she still goes on to date him.
4) When she comes to the hospital, she doesn’t ask Sherlock who shot him. Sherlock was shot from the front, so he obviously knows who it was (unless they were wearing a mask, but Janine wouldn’t know, so she would still ask). You think: “Okay, well, Janine’s annoyed about the fake engagement, and that’s why she doesn’t ask him,” but this person also knocked out Janine, so she’d want to know, no matter how angry with Sherlock she was. But she doesn’t ask him, which must mean she already knows.
Janine is based on an ACD character - in “The Adventure of Charles Augustus Milverton,” Holmes gets fake-engaged to Milverton’s housemaid. But we know that Janine, unlike Milverton’s housemaid, was not taken in by Sherlock - because she can hear him say he’s going after CAM - so she must have been using him to further her own plans. Here’s how we know what her plans are:
Sherlock dated Janine to know when CAM would and would not be in office and to get an easy way in:
SHERLOCK: And, of course, because he’s in town tonight, the letters will be in his safe in his London office while he’s out to dinner with the Marketing Group of Great Britain from seven ’til ten.
JOHN: How-how do you know his schedule?
SHERLOCK: Because I do.
Sherlock obviously got this information from Janine. But CAM wasn’t out of his office from seven to ten. So Janine lied.
So Janine’s role in HLV was to get Sherlock to CAM’s office at a specific time. Obviously, the fact that Sherlock, John, and Mary all arrive within two minutes of each other means it was a set-up. CAM didn’t set it up. Mary didn’t set it up. That only leaves Jim. So Janine must be connected to Jim.
Moriarty had a brother in ACD, although it’s inconsistent. Both names started with a J. Mofftisson make lots of little plays on inconsistencies in ACD: Mrs. Hudson was called Mrs. Turner once in ACD; Lestrade’s first name was only referred to as G.
Also, of course Jim and Janine look very similar and are both Irish and of the same age, which is why it’s likely she’s his sister, not just another person who works for him.
And let’s not forget the nail in the coffin:
Janine literally has devil horns. As do both Jim and Mary at other times.
Here are more reasons we know Janine is connected to Jim.
At the end of HLV, I think Sherlock starts to pick up on the fact that Janine’s more than she seems:
Sherlock tilts his head and looks at CAM. I think he’s thinking: “Why would Janine have put up with the kind of crap CAM must have subjected her to? He must have dirt on her. That means there is dirt on her.“
I’ve also heard the theory that Janine is Mycroft’s secret agent, but I’d say that if that’s true, she also has to be Jim’s sister. Because - assuming she’s Mycroft’s secret agent - Janine was very helpful in HLV for Mycroft because she was CAM’s PA. But now CAM’s dead, so Mycroft doesn’t need a spy/agent on CAM anymore. But we know Janine’s going to continue to be a character, so if she’s Mycroft’s secret agent, she’d have to continue to be helpful to the plot in order to keep being a character. That means she needs to have a use/connection somewhere else - like Jim.
I think the final showdown with Jim in 5x3 is going to happen at Janine’s cottage in Sussex. (By this point, Sherlock will have figured out she’s Jim’s sister, obviously.) And I think it’s likely that Janine may escape at the end - if Mofftisson want to do any more episodes after Jim’s dead, Janine would be an ideal Main Criminal for those.
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