Zone Coverage

A collection of thoughts, analysis and other Patriots-related material from an outside-US source. var sc_project=7034232; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_security="6d77f3ba";

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2016 Mock Draft results

Another draft done, another mock thrown hopelessly out of whack by trades or the fall of one or two players. Anyways, very happy with this years performance, the best I've ever done by a long way.

Draft order, Position I 'mocked’, Final pick:

1. Los Angeles Rams: QB, Jared Goff (QB) 2. Philadelphia Eagles: QB, Carson Wentz (QB) 3. San Diego Chargers: OT, Joey Bosa (DE) 4. Dallas Cowboys: CB, Ezekiel Elliott (RB) 5. Jacksonville Jaguars: LB, Jalen Ramsey (CB) 6. Baltimore Ravens: OT, Ronnie Stanley (OT) 7. San Francisco 49ers: DE, Deforest Buckner (DE) 15. Cleveland Browns: RB, Corey Coleman (WR) 11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE, Vernon Hargreaves (CB) 10. New York Giants: LB, Eli Apple (CB) 9. Chicago Bears: CB, Leonard Floyd (OLB) 12. New Orleans Saints: DE, Sheldon Rankins (DT) 13. Miami Dolphins: CB, Laremy Tunsil (OT) 14. Oakland Raiders: S, Karl Joseph (S) 8. Tennessee Titans: OT, Jack Conklin (OT) 16. Detroit Lions: DT, Taylor Decker (OT) 17. Atlanta Falcons: DT, Keanu Neal (S) 18. Indianapolis Colts: C, Ryan Kelly (C) 19. Buffalo Bills: QB, Shaq Lawson (DE) 20. New York Jets: OT, Darren Lee (OLB) 22. Washington Redskins: DT, Josh Doctson (WR) 21. Houston Texans: CB, Will Fuller (WR) 23. Minnesota Vikings: DT, Laquon Treadwell (WR) 24. Cincinnati Bengals: WR, William Jackson III (CB) 25. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT, Artie Burns (CB) 32. Seattle Seahawks: DE, Germain Ifedi (OG) 27. Green Bay Packers: WR, Kenny Clark (DT) 30: Arizona Cardinals: LB, Robert Nkemdiche (DT) 31: Carolina Panthers: DE, Vernon Butler (DT) 26: Denver Broncos: OT, Paxton Lynch (QB)

Correct player/team: 7/30 = 23%! Same as Mayock in 2015!

Correct position/team: 9/30 = 30%

Correct side of the ball/team: 17/30 = 57%

*30 because the Pats and Chiefs didn’t pick in the first.

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2016 Zone Coverage Mock Draft

I only post once a year basically, and this is the time! It's my fifth time doing a mock draft! Check my drafts in 2012/2013/2014/2015 for how I do my draft and how I've gone in past years.Reference is Mayock's top 100.

1. Los Angeles Rams: QB, Jared Goff (California) 2. Philadelphia Eagles: QB, Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) 3. San Diego Chargers: OT, Laremy Tunsil (Ole Miss) 4. Dallas Cowboys: CB, Jalen Ramsey (Florida State) 5. Jacksonville Jaguars: LB, Myles Jack (UCLA) 6. Baltimore Ravens: OT, Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame) 7. San Francisco 49ers: DE, Deforest Buckner (Oregon) 8. Cleveland Browns: RB, Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State) 9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE, Joey Bosa (Ohio State) 10. New York Giants: LB, Leonard Floyd (Georgia) 11. Chicago Bears: CB, Vernon Hargreaves (Florida) 12. New Orleans Saints: DE, Shaq Lawson (Clemson) 13. Miami Dolphins: CB, William Jackson III (Houston) 14. Oakland Raiders: S, Karl Joseph (West Virginia) 15. Tennessee Titans: OT, Jack Conklin (Michigan State) 16. Detroit Lions: DT, Sheldon Rankins (Louisville) 17. Atlanta Falcons: DT, A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama) 18. Indianapolis Colts: C, Ryan Kelly (Alabama) 19. Buffalo Bills: QB, Paxton Lynch (Memphis) 20. New York Jets: OT, Taylor Decker (Ohio State) 21. Washington Redskins: DT, Robert Nkemdiche (Ole Miss) 22. Houston Texans: CB, Eli Apple (Ohio State) 23. Minnesota Vikings: DT, Jarran Reed (Alabama) 24. Cincinnati Bengals: WR, Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss) 25. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT, Germain Ifedi (Texas A & M) 26. Seattle Seahawks: DE, Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma State) 27. Green Bay Packers: WR, Corey Coleman (Baylor) 28. Kansas City Chiefs: WR, Josh Doctson (TCU) 30: Arizona Cardinals: LB, Reggie Ragland (Alabama) 31: Carolina Panthers: DE, Kevin Dodd (Clemson) 32: Denver Broncos: OT, Jason Spriggs (Indiana)

[zone-coverage-blog]

NFL Week 1 notes... cont.

More notes from NFL week 1:

Packers @ Bears - Cutler showed some good mobility in this game, with a number of elusive scrambles. Not quite enough to use the read option, as they tried unsuccessfully in the first half. - Lacy is a tough runner, and rarely gets negative yardage, but I wonder if he lost 15 pounds, might that help him find the corner quicker? Not his style, I guess. - The Bears moved the ball pretty successfully, but were let down in the red zone. Perhaps they missed big Brandon Marshall? Bennett wasn’t targeted in the red zone until the final minute.

Seahawks @ Rams - MVP for this game was easily Benny Cunningham. He was everything on offense for the Rams, picking up a number of crucial third down and big gains. - The Tavon Austin runningback experiment largely failed. He did get the TD, but on all of his other carries the Seahawks brought him down easily for minimal gain. - Seattle's O-Line struggled, and it eventually seemed to lead Wilson to abandon his passing game and take off perhaps a bit too soon, not keeping his eyes downfield. - The Rams rarely kept their corners in press coverage. Strange when Seattle loved to use their quick screen/short passing game.

Lions @ Chargers - The Chargers offense looked like they just weren’t in sync, with some wacky blocking schemes (Green vs Ansah in pass protection) and poor play calls/design. Rivers was visibly frustrated, throwing his hands up towards his bench a number of times. - The Chargers did pick up the win, of course, but chalk that up to a huge game for Keenan Allen - and the Lions refusal to make any adjustments to cover him. - Stafford targeted Megatron only a few times all game - it looked like the Lions dialed up a number of deep passes for him, but the pressure arrived before he could pull the trigger. Look for more intermediate routes next week. - San Diego may have found their next Shaun Philips - Emanuel had a huge game for them, with an interception, sack, great tackle for loss on an Abdullah screen, and a pressure leading to another pick.

Titans @ Buccaneers - I was interested to see the two rookies, and particularly how they would be used. Both teams had a decent running game, yet while the Titans asked Mariota to throw quick-read slants, the Bucs play calls were for outside throws and deeper routes. - An ugly second half, filled with long-yardage sacks, illegal formation calls, and generally both teams seeing out the clock.  - I’m a bit worried for Mike Evans. Winston’s accuracy was erratic, and he had two more would-be interceptions dropped. 

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Week 1 NFL Notes

I’ve watched through some of the Week 1 NFL games, here’s a few quick hits: Browns @ Jets - McCown moved the ball well on his first (and only) drive. Shame to see him hurt so early. - The Browns seem to be a bit small both at receiver and corner. The Jets out-muscled them on the outside on both sides of the ball. - Manziel had some bad throws (interception needed to be thrown to the outside) but he was let down on some big third down conversions by holding calls or drops. - Chris Ivory ran through just about every first contact. The Jets will need that, as I don’t think the Jets receiving core offer much after Marshall and Decker.

Ravens @ Broncos - Both defensive lines absolutely dominated. Flacco never threw a deep ball off his front foot; he simply never had the time. - A lot of criticism of Manning has come from this game, and he certainly struggle with throws to the outside and deep, but the Denver passing game is screens and crossing routes, and he has no problem there. - Hillman looked much better than Anderson, but he came into the game in the second half, with fresher legs than the defense. - Doesn’t look like the Ravens have enough options to win a game if they’re forced to pass. Steve Smith has a lost a step, and nobody else flashed.

Steelers @ Patriots - Gronkowski makes it look easy, but I’m not sure if the two fades actually were as easy as he made it look. Tough for a big guy to toe tap while focused on the ball. - Edelman is the run after-the-catch master. He’s got some innate know-how where the first defender is coming from, similar to Jamaal Charles. - Patriots defense certainly need some work, but to the eye they’re not far off. Butler just needs to improve his ball skills. - When Bell gets back for the Steelers - look out. Running game looked fine, even without Pouncey. If only the defense could hold long enough for the running game to chew clock.

Chiefs @ Texans - I thought it might be a little harsh to Hoyer to be pulled. For me, he made only two or three errant throws, and was let down by the running game. Still, you have to put up points! Average drive start (16 yard line) didn’t help. - JJ Watt, while great, did his best work against the run game. Of his two sacks, one came while unblocked, and another when Alex Smith scrambled up the pocket and Watt managed to get a paw on him. - Quiet game for Clowney, but he had a couple of stops in the run game. He learnt that Alex Smith is as elusive as hell. - I thought Hoyer was ripping it, but when Mallett came on - wow he puts some heat on that ball! I wouldn’t say either of them are particularly mobile though.

[zone-coverage-blog]

Patriots Draft Steals

Profootballfocus put out their top ten draft steals of 2015, and the Patriots showed up with two players:

2. Trey Flowers, ED, Arkansas

#101 Overall to New England

One thing you’ll hear a lot in the draft process is that college performance doesn’t translate to the pros. That would be one thing if the numbers came in a weaker conference, but Flowers was facing the top tackles in the SEC week in and week out, many of who were drafted or will be drafted, and still put up silly numbers.

He fell in the draft because he doesn’t fit the mold of an explosive edge rusher, but he still belongs in the conversation with the guys that do fit that mold. At the combine, Flowers only ran a 4.93 40 yard dash at 6-foot-2, 266 pounds. His strength and length are what really set the Arkansas edge defender apart as he utilizes both as well as anyone in the class. He was second in the nation last year with a run stop percentage of 12.1.

4. Darryl Roberts, CB, Marshall

#247 Overall to New England

A lot of times productive college players fall in the draft due to poor measurable that suggest they won’t translate to the NFL. That wasn’t the case for Roberts whose pro day was as impressive as any of the top corners in this class. Usually that means the tape wasn’t all that impressive, but Roberts had the third best grade of any corner outside of the Power 5.

The Marshall corner only had one interception on the season, but he broke up seven additional passes and had a 67.1 quarterback rating against. We thought he could go as early as the second round given his abilities. Roberts may not be the most talented player on this list, but to nab him in the seventh round is absurd.

[patspropaganda]

Patriots have the best fans in the NFL (via NFL’s Best Fans)

Based on a number of factors like attendance, TV ratings, and social media followings, Pats fans come out on top. 

[zone-coverage-blog]

2015 Zone Coverage Mock Results

The first round is over in Chicago, and it was surprising how unsurprising this draft was - only two trades, and none involving the top 14 picks. Here's how I went with my mock:

Draft Spot. Team: Position I ‘mocked’ – Pick Taken

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB - Jameis Winston, Florida State (QB)

Tennessee Titans: DE - Marcus Mariota, Oregon (QB)

Jacksonville Jaguars: OLB - Dante Fowler Jr, Florida (OLB)

Oakland Raiders: WR - Amari Cooper, Alabama (WR)

Washington Redskins: DE - Brandon Scherff, Iowa (OG)

New York Jets: QB - Leonard Williams, USC (DE)

Chicago Bears: WR - Kevin White, West Virginia (WR)

Atlanta Falcons: DE - Vic Beasley, Clemson (OLB)

New York Giants: DT - Ereck Flowers, Miami (OT)

St Louis Rams: CB - Todd Gurley, Georgia (RB)

Minnesota Vikings: OG - Trae Waynes, Michigan State (CB)

Cleveland Browns: OLB - Danny Shelton, Washington (DT)

New Orleans Saints: OT - Andrus Peat, Stanford (OT)

Miami Dolphins: DE - DeVante Parker, Louisville (WR)

(at 17) San Francisco 49ers: WR - Arik Armstead, Oregon (DE)

Houston Texans: RB - Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest (CB)

(at 15) San Diego Chargers: DE - Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin (RB)

Kansas City Chiefs: WR - Marcus Peters, Washington (CB)

Cleveland Browns: WR - Cameron Erving, Florida State (C)

Philadelphia Eagles: CB - Nelson Agholor, USC (WR)

Cincinnati Bengals: CB - Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M (OT)

Pittsburgh Steelers: DT - Bud Dupree, Kentucky (OLB)

(at 28) Detroit Lions: OT - Laken Tomlinson, Duke (OG)

Arizona Cardinals: RB - D.J. Humphries, Florida (OT)

Carolina Panthers: CB - Shaq Thompson, Washington (OLB)

Baltimore Ravens: WR - Breshad Perriman, UCF (WR)

Dallas Cowboys: S - Byron Jones, Connecticut (CB)

(at 23) Denver Broncos: OT - Shane Ray, Missouri (DE)

Indianapolis Colts: C - Phillip Dorsett, Miami (WR)

Green Bay Packers: DT - Damarious Randall, Arizona State (S)

New Orleans Saints: CB - Stephone Anthony, Clemson (LB)

New England Patriots: S - Malcom Brown, Texas (DT)

Now, a summary:

Correct player/pick: 2/32 = 6.25% (not good!)

Correct position/pick: 7/32 = 21.88% (not much better!)

Correct side of the ball/pick: 18/32 = 56.25% (need to improve!)

Mayock got 7/32 on his mock - note my mock was earlier, and didn't map the fall of Shane Ray and La'el Collins late.

Anyways, it's a fun exercise. Thanks for reading!

[zone-coverage-blog]

2014 Zone Coverage Mock Draft

It's the fourth annual Zone Coverage Mock Draft! Here's the previous three years - 2014, 2013 and 2012.

Once again, I do no film review of any college prospect, nor do I watch any college games through the season, so this mock draft will more be a review of positional need for each of the teams than a specific pick of a particular player. However, I do listen to a fair amount of draftnik podcasts and will put my own input into most picks. Failing that, players are chosen from what I believe to be a reputable source - NFL analyst Mike Mayock’s top 5 position rankings (available here)

Without further ado:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB, Jameis Winston, Florida State

Tennessee Titans: DE, Leonard Williams, USC

Jacksonville Jaguars: OLB, Dante Fowler Jr, Florida

Oakland Raiders: WR, Kevin White, West Virginia

Washington Redskins: DE, Shane Ray, Missouri

New York Jets: QB, Marcus Mariota, Oregon

Chicago Bears: WR, Amari Cooper, Alabama

Atlanta Falcons: DE, Bud Dupree, Kentucky

New York Giants: DT, Danny Shelton, Washington

St Louis Rams: CB, Trae Waynes, Michigan State

Minnesota Vikings: OG, Brandon Scherff, Iowa

Cleveland Browns: OLB, Vic Beasley, Clemson

New Orleans Saints: OT, La'el Collins, LSU

Miami Dolphins: DE, Arik Armstead, Oregon

San Francisco 49ers: WR, DeVante Parker, Louisville

Houston Texans: RB, Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin

San Diego Chargers: DE, Randy Gregory, Nebraska

Kansas City Chiefs: WR, Breshad Perriman, UCF

Cleveland Browns: WR, Nelson Agholor, USC

Philadelphia Eagles: CB, Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest

Cincinnati Bengals: CB, Marcus Peters, Washington

Pittsburgh Steelers: DT, Malcom Brown, Texas

Detroit Lions: OT, Ereck Flowers, Miami

Arizona Cardinals: RB, Todd Gurley, Georgia

Carolina Panthers: CB, Jalen Collins, LSU

Baltimore Ravens: WR, Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri

Dallas Cowboys: S, Damarious Randall, Arizona State

Denver Broncos: OT, D.J. Humphries, Florida

Indianapolis Colts: C, Cameron Erving, Florida State

Green Bay Packers: DT, Eddie Goldman, Florida State

New Orleans Saints: CB, Byron Jones, Connecticut

New England Patriots: S, Landon Collins, Alabama

Positions taken:

QB: 2 WR: 6 TE: 0 OT: 3 DT: 3 DE: 5 LB: 2 CB: 5 S: 2

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Zone Coverage Patriots Roster Projection 4.0

Now with two weeks until the first game that counts, I've added the option to include players on the PUP list in my projection:

QB: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Mallett 

RB: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, James White, Brandon Bolden

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanawanui**, James Develin, Tim Wright

WR: Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Brandon LaFell, Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce, Brian Tyms*

T: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming

G/C: Dan Connolly, Bryan Stork**, Josh Kline, Jordan Devey, Ryan Wendell

Offense: 24

Analysis: Shocked as everyone about the trade of Mankins, and I think the beneficiary might be Wendell - they'll need veterans on the line. I've given Tim Wright the Hoo-man's spot while he starts on PUP, and I think Devey is clearly ahead of Halapio, who only 'played' two kneel-down snaps against the Panthers.

DT: Vince Wilfork, Dominque Easley, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones**, Joe Vellano, Jerel Worthy

DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Michael Buchanan, Zach Moore

LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Steve Beauharnais, Darius Fleming

CB: Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner*, Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington, Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler

S: Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Nate Ebner, Patrick Chung, Tavon Wilson

Defense: 23

Analysis: I think it's fair to assume the coaching staff would like to see more of Worthy, and of the rookie linebackers Darius Fleming has impressed the most.

K: Stephen Gostkowski

P: Ryan Allen

LS: Danny Aiken

ST: Michael Slater, Chris White

Specialists: 5

*Suspended

**PUP

[zone-coverage-blog]

Logan Mankins reaction

Today's surprising Mankins trade should be taken as a sign of the diminishing returns from the All-Pro Guard, rather than the promise of a future fourth and Tim Wright.

As I noted on Twitter, Mankins hasn't been playing to his usual standard, with a few bad games last year. However, his level of play still seemed above those of potential replacements, and his off-the-field value to the team seemed immeasurable.

What are the Patriots getting in return? Recent fourth-round picks by the Patriots are Bryan Stork, James White, Cameron Fleming, Josh Boyce, Aaron Hernandez and Rich Ohrnberger. 

Who is Tim Wright? He played in 16 games last year, with 54 receptions for 571 yards and five touchdowns. He went undrafted last year.

Was the trade worth it? In some sense we'll have to wait to see how the fourth-rounder pans out, and both players on new teams. As a knee-jerk reaction though, I highly doubt it benefits the 2014 Pats to have Wright instead of Mankins. 

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Zone Coverage Patriots Roster Projection 3.0

Once more we get to revamp the roster, after watching the game against the Eagles:

QB: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Mallett 

RB: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, James White, Brandon Bolden

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanawanui, James Develin

WR: Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Brandon LaFell, Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce, Brian Tyms*

T: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming

G/C: Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Bryan Stork, Josh Kline, Jon Halapio

Offense: 25

Analysis: Nice work by both backup quarterbacks this week, but I like Garoppolo more. Brandon Bolden did well, but both Roy Finch and Jonas Gray are snapping at his heels. With the Hoo-man back in practice this week, I prefer him to Williams. I added Tyms as he'll be suspended for the first four games, and might be an injury replacement option.

DT: Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, Dominque Easley, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones, Joe Vellano

DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Michael Buchanan, Zach Moore

LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, James Anderson, Steve Beauharnais

CB: Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner*, Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington, Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler

S: Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Nate Ebner, Patrick Chung

Defense: 24

Analysis: Joe Vellano's efforts against the Eagles were impressive - I give him a roster spot over Will Smith. Dariius Fleming had a better game in Washington, but could beat out Anderson or Beauharnais. Butler's done enough for me to make the squad. Haven't seen anything at all from Tavon Wilson, and very little from Ebner, but the rugby player's special teams contributions earns him a spot.

K: Stephen Gostkowski

P: Ryan Allen

LS: Danny Aiken

ST: Michael Slater

Specialists: 4

*Suspended

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Zone Coverage Patriots Roster Projection 2.0

We’ve now seen a bunch of the second/third stringers play in preseason game action against the Redskins, so it's time to alter the roster/depth chart in a typical knee-jerk reaction:

QB: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Mallett 

RB: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, James White, Brandon Bolden

TE: Rob Gronkowski, DJ Williams, James Develin

WR: Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Brandon LaFell, Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce

T: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming

G/C: Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Bryan Stork, Josh Kline, Jon Halapio

Offense: 25

Analysis: Garoppolo moves ahead of Mallett, but he wasn't facing the same quality of opponent, so we'll see how that goes through the rest of the offseason. Bolden comes back in because I don't think we saw anything from the rookies. If Tyms has some more good performances, he might squeeze a way on.

DT: Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, Dominque Easley, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones

DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Michael Buchanan, Will Smith, Zach Moore

LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, James Anderson, Steve Beauharnais

CB: Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington, Logan Ryan

S: Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Patrick Chung

Defense: 24

Analysis: Just shifts in depth chart, with one exception: the addition of Patrick Chung. I liked his sure tackling ability, and the fact he knows the defense can only help him.

K: Stephen Gostkowski

P: Ryan Allen

LS: Danny Aiken

ST: Michael Slater

Specialists: 4

[zone-coverage-blog]

Zone Coverage Patriots Roster Projection

We're only five days into training camp, but it's a fun exercise, so here's my 2014 Patriots roster projection:

QB: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo

RB: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, James White, Jonas Gray

TE: Rob Gronkowski, DJ Williams, James Develin

WR: Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Brandon LaFell, Kenbrell Thompkins

T: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming

G/C: Logan Mankins, Bryan Stork, Josh Kline, Chris Barker, Jon Halapio

Offense: 25

Analysis: We haven't heard any glowing reports about Garoppolo, so Mallett retains his spot on the side. There's been a bunch of writers talking about Bolden's lackadaisical start to camp, and Gray might be the one to grab that spot. Develin is named a proper tight end, and I think a couple of the linemen (Cannon, Kline) are versatile enough to line up as a blocking tight end, so that Hooman isn't required. We haven't seen anything worthy from Gallon to get onto the 53, and so the receivers are almost unchanged from last season. High cap figures on Wendell and Connolly mean they end up as cap casualties on my projection. 

DT: Vince Wilfork, Dominque Easley, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones, Tommy Kelly

DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Will Smith, Michael Buchanan, Zach Moore

LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, James Anderson, Steve Beauharnias

CB: Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington, Alfonzo Dennard

S: Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Jemea Thomas

Defense: 24

Analysis: Joe Vellano is perhaps a bit unlucky not to have kept his spot after what he did for the team last season, but quality always wins. Despite some good reports, let's not expect a year four jump from Jake Bequette into relevance. I'm guessing Belichick likes the depth all along the line coming into camp. It's also an interesting battle at backup linebacker - will one of the undrafted players achieve a spot? At this time, it looks like one of the best cornerback groups in the league, although Browner will miss the first games. The back end of the secondary is concerning - I think it's likely a veteran will be added post-week 1.

K: Stephen Gostkowski

P: Ryan Allen

LS: Danny Aiken

ST: Michael Slater

Specialists: 4

[zone-coverage-blog]

10 rookies to monitor during NFL training camps

The NFL season is almost here! Buffalo has kicked off their training camp, with the rest of the NFL franchises to follow suit. It's an exciting time for fans, who've been eagerly anticipating football action since the Superbowl in February, and devour every word the beat writers provide about each camp session. However, let's cast our minds back to May, where 256 young players were drafted into the NFL. These young men have been studying playbooks since the Draft, and I've picked out ten to keep your eye on as training camps progress through to the preseason (and fantasy drafts).

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE, Houston Texans - He was the first overall pick, and Mayock dubbed him the most talented defensive lineman on the planet. Since the draft, new information has come to light about Clowney's health, putting him at risk of missing training camp. The latest report is that post-surgery Clowney will 'try' to play during training camp. When Clowney gets on the field, paired up with JJ Watt - he's a definite chance to put up double-digit sacks in his first year.

2. Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints - Of all the rookies this year, Brandin Cooks is to me the most intriguing. Pre-draft the tape on him showed a dynamic, big-play receiver, and I was thrilled to see Cooks go to a team with a higher-echelon passing game. Cooks could be the rookie Tavon Austin was meant to be. Comments from Saints teammates have been all about his top-tier speed, and it's easy to think Cooks has a really good chance at offensive rookie of the year. 

3. Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions - The first tight end (sorry, pass-catcher) selected in the draft, Ebron has loads of talent, but his selection by the Lions was slightly puzzling. Detroit have plenty of weapons, and there is a chance Ebron loses snaps to the likes of Pettigrew and Fauria. However, Ebron is versatile and can line up anywhere on the field, which should help him attract the attentions of Stafford. With the volume of passing in Detroit, Ebron could be at the level of Jordan Cameron or Heath Miller in year one.

4. Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers - It might be ridiculous to suggest that a 49er rookie will have any impact at all in his first year. But Hyde, among the first few backs selected in the draft, has a few things going his way. He's exactly the pounding runner that Harbaugh likes, he reportedly had a good offseason, and second-year back Marcus Lattimore is still injured. Will this finally be the year that Frank Gore concedes some carries? It's completely up to Hyde to deliver when they give him the opportunity.

5. Khalil Mack, OLB, Oakland Raiders - Touted by Mike Mayock as better than Clowney, Mack went fifth overall to the Raiders. Coach Dennis Allen admitted Mack's head is spinning from the transition to the NFL game, but he seems like a pretty smart guy that everything will come together for. High draft picks at his position haven't always worked out (see Dion Jordan) so it'll be interesting to see if Mack can live up to his draft status and make something happen for the Raiders.

6. Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns - Manziel is at the centre of the biggest storyline of the NFL, not just the rookies. His name is everywhere, except at the top of the quarterback depth chart in Cleveland. Johnny "Football" was electric in college, but concerns over his reckless playing style and perhaps similarly reckless lifestyle cast a doubt over his NFL career. The battle for the Brown's starting role probably will result in Manziel being named the starter, and anything is possible with him at the helm.

7. Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia Eagles - Second-round choice Matthews is in a really good spot with the Eagles. The team under Chip Kelly look to be on the up, and Nick Foles is one of the league's rising stars. Following the trade of Desean Jackson, who's better placed to capitalise than Matthews, when the team has no clear-cut number one receiver? Reports from the Eagles suggest that Matthews is in the mix and could possibly start, depending on a strong training camp.

8. Calvin Pryor, S, New York Jets - Coach Rex Ryan has been on the hot seat for a couple of years, but it seems that none of the GMs he works with shares his defensive philosophy. Finally, this year Idzik took the hard-hitting 'Louisville Slugger' in Calvin Pryor, exactly what Ryan would have wanted. He was working with the first team defense in OTAs, and it'll be interesting to see if Pryor can take this momentum to be a starter (and impact player) in the 2014 season. There's certainly a lot of hype surrounding Pryor.

9. Ryan Shazier, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers first-round pick has all the physical attributes of a modern-day linebacker - he's fast (4.36 40), can jump (42 inch vertical leap) and can play inside and outside (has even covered Antonio Brown in offseason practices). The word on Shazier is that defensive coordinator LeBeau loves him, and that puts Shazier in the conversation for defensive rookie of the year. It'll be fascinating to see how they'll use him in training camp.

10. Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills - He cost the Bills two first-round picks, but so far Watkins has shown the work ethic and skills that you'd expect from such an investment. He's been mentioned as the most talented receiver since Calvin Johnson, and all reports are positive, which is a nice change for Bills fans. It's very rare for rookie receivers to reach the 1,000-yard mark straight out of the gate, but I see Watkins eclipsing this landmark.

[zone-coverage-blog]

2014 Zone Coverage Mock Draft Results

With the first round in the books, it’s time to face the music and see how close the mock draft came to reality. Factoring in draft-day trades, it’s extremely difficult to get right player/right team/right spot, so I figure picking the right player on the right team is good enough. Or even just the right position.

Format:

Draft Spot – Team – Position I ‘mocked’ – Pick Taken

1. Houston Texans - DE - Jadeveon Clowney, DE 2. St. Louis Rams - OT - Greg Robinson, OT 3. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB - Blake Bortles, QB 4 (at 8). Cleveland Browns - QB - Justin Gilbert, CB 5. Oakland Raiders - OT - Khalil Mack, LB 6. Atlanta Falcons - LB - Jake Matthews, OT 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR - Mike Evans, WR 8 (at 9). Minnesota Vikings - QB - Anthony Barr, LB 9 (at 4). Buffalo Bills - TE - Sammy Watkins, WR 10. Detroit Lions - OT - Eric Ebron, TE 11. Tennessee Titans - CB - Taylor Lewan, OT 12. New York Giants - OT - Odell Beckham, WR 13. St. Louis Rams - S - Aaron Donald, DT 14. Chicago Bears - DT - Kyle Fuller, CB 15. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB - Ryan Shazier, LB 16. Dallas Cowboys - LB - Zack Martin, OT 17. Baltimore Ravens - CB - C.J. Mosley, LB 18. New York Jets - WR - Calvin Pryor, S 19. Miami Dolphins - OT - Ja'Wuan James, OT 20 (at 27). Arizona Cardinals - S - Deone Bucannon, S 21. Green Bay Packers - LB - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S 22 (at 26). Philadelphia Eagles - CB - Marcus Smith, DE 23. Kansas City Chiefs - WR - Dee Ford, DE 24. Cincinnati Bengals - CB - Darqueze Dennard, CB 25. San Diego Chargers - DE - Jason Verrett, CB 26 (at 22). Cleveland Browns - QB - Johnny Manziel, QB 27 (at 20). New Orleans Saints - WR - Brandin Cooks, WR 28. Carolina Panthers - WR - Kelvin Benjamin, WR 29. New England Patriots - DT - Dominique Easley, DT 30. San Francisco 49ers - CB - Jimmie Ward, S 31. Denver Broncos - OT - Bradley Roby, CB 32 (at 45). Seattle Seahawks - TE - Paul Richardson, WR

Right player/spot/team: 3/32 = 9.4% (Ouch!) Right position/team: 12/32 = 37.5% (Much better!)

[zone-coverage-blog]

2014 Zone Coverage Mock Draft

Thanks for reading the 2014 Zone Coverage Mock Draft. You can read the results of the 2013 mock here, and the 2012 mock draft here.

Once again, I do no film review of any college prospect, nor do I watch any college games through the season, so this mock draft will more be a review of positional need for each of the teams than a specific pick of a particular player. However, I do listen to a fair amount of draftnik podcasts and will put my own input into most picks. Failing that, players are chosen from what I believe to be a reputable source - NFL analyst Mike Mayock’s top 5 position rankings (available here) and top 100 (here).

1. Houston Texans - DE, Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina 2. St. Louis Rams - OT, Greg Robinson, Auburn 3. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB, Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M 4. Cleveland Browns - WR, Sammy Watkins, Clemson 5. Oakland Raiders - OT, Jake Matthews, Texas A&M 6. Atlanta Falcons - LB, Khalil Mack, Buffalo 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR, Mike Evans, Texas A&M 8. Minnesota Vikings - QB, Blake Bortles, Central Florida 9. Buffalo Bills - TE, Eric Ebron, North Carolina 10. Detroit Lions - OT, Taylor Lewan, Michigan 11. Tennessee Titans - CB, Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech 12. New York Giants - OT, Zack Martin, Notre Dame 13. St. Louis Rams - S, Ha Ha Clinton Dix, Alabama 14. Chicago Bears - DT, Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh 15. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB, C.J. Mosley, Alabama 16. Dallas Cowboys - LB, Anthony Barr, UCLA 17. Baltimore Ravens - CB, Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State 18. New York Jets - WR, Odell Beckham, LSU 19. Miami Dolphins - OT, Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama 20. Arizona Cardinals - S, Calvin Pryor, Louisville 21. Green Bay Packers - LB, Ryan Shazier, Ohio State 22. Philadelphia Eagles - CB, Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State 23. Kansas City Chiefs - WR, Brandin Cooks, Oregon State 24. Cincinnati Bengals - CB, Bradley Roby, Ohio State 25. San Diego Chargers - DE, Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame 26. Cleveland Browns - QB, Derek Carr, Fresno State 27. New Orleans Saints - WR, Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State 28. Carolina Panthers - WR, Marqise Lee, USC 29. New England Patriots - DT, Timmy Jernigan, Florida State 30. San Francisco 49ers - CB, Jason Verrett, TCU 31. Denver Broncos - OT, Joel Bitonio, Nevada 32. Seattle Seahawks - TE, Jace Amaro, Texas Tech

Positions taken:

QB: 3 WR: 6 TE: 2 OT: 6 DT: 2 DE: 2 LB: 4 CB: 5 S: 2

Of course, this mock draft doesn’t account for draft-day trades, which always destroy any good (or bad) mock draft. The NFL draft will commence on May 8th in New York.

Notable players who weren’t drafted in my mock were: Thanks for reading, let me know your thoughts/criticisms!

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Year 3 of Zone Coverage today! Thanks for following :)