Okay, but this headline is misleading?
The poll asked two questions: 1. In a race between Clinton and Trump, who would you vote for? 2. In a four-way race among Stein, Johnson, Clinton and Trump, who would you vote for?
In the first question, Clinton leads 55%-34% for the 18-34 age group, with 11% either undecided or volunteering another name. In the second, Clinton drops to 31% but Trump only drops to 26%, with Johnson at 29% and Stein at 15%. And its true that, when you break the poll down by age, this age group supports Stein and Johnson more than older voters – in fact, given the poll’s margin of error is 3.2%, in the second version of the question Clinton, Trump and Johnson are almost tied.
But there’s two other questions that are more interesting to me: one asked “Who do you think will win the election?” and the other asks “Are you willing to vote for a third party candidate?” On the first of these, 71% of Millenials think Clinton is going to win, 63% of Gen X (35-49) and just 55% of Boomers. And, on the second question, 63% of Millenials would consider voting third party, 48% of Gen X, just 27% of Boomers.
Now, the article surveyed “likely voters,” and we all know that polling places’ ideas about “likely voters” don’t always match up to who actually turns out. But what these numbers say to me is that people who support third party candidates disproportionately believe that Clinton’s got this in the bag. I know plenty of these people, and not all of them are Millenials. It’s also reminiscent of the Brexit vote, where many people who voted Leave did so as a protest vote, under the assumption that Stay was going to win.
So to me, the key strategy here isn’t just conjuring up visions of all the evil a President Trump could do, but also making clear just how likely that scenario is. This election will be far closer than it should be; your vote really will count.
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