A Breakdown: My Picks and Predictions for the 86th Academy Awards
Though I may not be a film critic, I am an avid movie buff and was pleased to be able to view nearly every film nominated for the major awards this season. Below are my picks (if I had a vote) and predictions for the most important awards that will be handed out Sunday.
BEST PICTURE Nominees: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street
Pick: 12 Years a Slave Prediction: 12 Years a Slave Last year? I nailed it (both)! Argo.
Powerful, riveting and uncomfortable, 12 Years a Slave was as quality of a movie as was made in 2013. The field is extremely tough with American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity and The Wolf of Wall Street all viable contenders in any given year. In fact, I could argue the best overall film of the bunch is actually Her (which is not nearly getting the credit it deserves). The end result is a deserved win for a fantastic piece of cinema.
ACTOR – in a Leading Role Nominees: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) Pick: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) Prediction: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) Last year? I nailed it (both)! Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
A lustful and brazen drunken cowboy without much regard for himself or others? That’s classic McConaughey. An AIDS patient who befriends a transvestite and can bring you to tears? That’s now McConaughey, too, apparently. Showcasing range most did not believe he had while taking on a huge role and leading a triumphant socially-relevant movie, this is his year. And he’s on quite a role with Mud (terrific, underrated) and True Detective also allowing him to shine. He could double-up with an Emmy next year. Shameful that Joaquin Phoenix (Her) was not nominated.
ACTRESS – in a Leading Role Nominees: Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchet (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Pick: Amy Adams (American Hustle) Prediction: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) Last year? I nailed it (both)! Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
David O. Russell writes and directs women arguably better than anyone…except perhaps Woody Allen. The complexity of Adams's character and her performance gives her the edge in my mind, but Blanchett is supposedly the odds-on favorite by a large margin.
ACTOR – in a Supporting Role Nominees: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Pick: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) Prediction: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) Last year? I missed big (both). Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
An absolute coin toss in terms of who had the better performance. Fassbender and Leto dominate the competition here both with their best roles to date. Where I think a distinction is made is the fact that Leto had not made a movie in the SIX years prior. Fassbender is tremendous in his film. He deserves it equally as much.
ACTRESS – in a Supporting Role Nominees: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), June Squibb (Nebraska)
Pick: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) Last year? I nailed it (prediction)! Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Look for Lawrence as the darkhorse here, but Nyongo’s scenes were go gripping and heart-wrenching that she made you feel as if you were completely powerless while standing there watching it all happen.
DIRECTING Nominees: David O. Russell (American Hustle), Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron), Nebraska (Alexander Payne), 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen), The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
Pick: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) Last year? I picked it! Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
I do not get the fascination with Cuaron and Gravity, but he’s the heavy favorite for this award so it would be stupid to predict otherwise. Spike Jonze should have been nominated – and won – for Her. McQueen and O’Russell were also terrific.
WRITING – Adapted Screenplay Nominees: Richard Linklater (Before Midnight), Captain Phillips (Billy Ray), Philomena (Steve Coogan), 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley), The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
Pick: 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) Prediction: 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) Last year? I predicted it! Chris Terrio (Argo)
The Best Picture winner usually takes the writing award in its respective category, so expect 12 Years a Slave to get the nod here as long as that prediction is also correct, of course.
WRITING – Original Screenplay Nominees: David O. Russell (American Hustle), Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine), Craig Borten (Dallas Buyers Club), Spike Jonze (Her), Bob Nelson (Nebraska)
Pick: Spike Jonze (Her) Prediction: Spike Jonze (Her) Last year? I picked it! Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
I was stupid last year to pick but not predict Tarantino, but I will not make that mistake again. As mentioned previously, Her is a triumphant movie that is not getting the credit it deserves. Jonze bringing home the writing award is a bit of a runner-up prize but nevertheless incredibly well deserved. The movie was inventive, funny, emotional and completely unique. Russell (and Eric Warren Singer) did an extraordinary job as well, so that would certainly not be a terrible surprise if he won.
CINEMATOGRAPHY Nominees: The Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners
Pick: Gravity Prediction: Gravity Last year? I nailed it (both)! Life of Pi
The only award Gravity deserves. Eye-catching and beautiful, especially if you saw it in IMAX. Wow.
For fun! BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING Nominees: Dallas Buyers Club, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger
Pick: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club
OK so Dallas Buyers Club will win. After all, the median age of the Academy is 63! But Bad Grandpa never would have been possible without the makeup and hairstyling people. Perhaps all that is good enough for is a nomination though.
Thanks for reading.