الخطة
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الخطة
Waqt ki bas yahi baat achi hai ki waqt ek sa nahin rehta ,
Aur sabse zyada kharab baat bhi yahi hai ki waqt ek sa nahin reh sakta ,
Ache waqt mein insaan ki apni sacchayi pata chalti hai,
aur burey waqt mein insaan ko dusron ki asliyat ka andaza hota hai.
نہ سماعتوں میں تپش گُھلے نہ نظر کو وقفِ عذاب کر
جو سنائی دے اُسے چپ سِکھا
جو دکھائی دے اُسے خواب کر••••••••||||
ابھی منتشر نہ ہو اجنبی، نہ وصال رُت کے کرم جَتا!
جو تری تلاش میں گُم ہوئے
کبھی اُن دنوں کا حساب کر•••••||||
مرے صبر پر کوئی اجر کیا مری دو پہر پہ یہ ابر کیوں؟
مجھے اوڑھنے دے اذیتیں
مری عادتیں نہ خراب کر•••••|||||
کہیں آبلوں کے بھنور بجیں کہیں دھوپ روپ بدن سجیں
کبھی دل کو تِھل کا مزاج دے
کبھی چشمِ تِر کو چناب کر••••|||
یہ ہُجومِ شہرِ ستمگراں نہ سُنے گا تیری صدا کبھی،
مری حسرتوں کو سُخن سُنا
مری خواہشوں سے خطاب کر••••||||
یہ جُلوسِ فصلِ بہار ہے تہی دست، یار، سجا اِسے
کوئی اشک پھر سے شرر بنا
کوئی زخم پھر سے گلاب کر••••||||
محسن نقوی
A list of moral questions to developing a villainous character
Is mercy a sign of weakness in your eyes?
What is your primary motivation or value that drives your actions?
Are there any principles you refuse to compromise on, even in your pursuit of power?
Do you believe lying is justified if it serves your goals?
How do you manipulate others to achieve your ends?
Would you betray an ally to further your plans?
Do you believe in justice, or do you see it as a tool to manipulate others?
Would you sacrifice yourself for a cause or ambition?
Would you destroy something beautiful or innocent to achieve your goals?
If you had to choose between your ambition and the life of someone you care about, what would you do?
Do you feel any responsibility towards society, or do you act solely for your gain?
How do you justify your actions to yourself and others?
Can you forgive someone who has wronged you, or do you seek revenge?
How long do you hold grudges, and what actions might provoke them?
Do you respect any form of authority, or do you see yourself as the ultimate power?
These questions can help you delve into the psyche of your villain.
Character Dynamic Asks
Between Protagonist and Antagonist
What was their first conflict? How did this shape their relationship
Are there moments of respect or admiration between them?
What are the biggest differences in their motivations and values?
Do they have a shared past or connections?
How does their conflict affect the world around them?
Between Protagonist and Mentor Figure
How did they meet?
What lessons has the mentor taught the protagonist?
Is there a time when the protagonist surpasses or contradicts the mentor?
What does the protagonist admire about the mentor?
Does the mentor have secrets or flaws that the protagonist discovers?
Between Protagonist and Love Interest
How did they meet and what was their first impression of each other?
What obstacles stand in the way of their relationship?
How do their personalities complement or contradict each other?
What are their biggest fears or insecurities in the relationship?
How does their relationship grow over the course of the story?
Between Protagonist and Closest Friend
How did they meet and why did they become friends?
What are their shared interests or activities?
Are there any secrets or conflicts between them?
How do they support each other in difficult times?
What does each admire about the other?
Between Antagonist and Closest Ally
How did they meet and why do they work together?
What are their shared goals or motivations?
Are there tensions or power struggles between them?
How do they react to failures or setbacks?
Is there a possibility that their alliance could break?
Between Supporting Characters
What are their backgrounds and connections with each other?
Is there a rivalry or close friendship between them?
How do they contribute to the main plot?
What secrets or conflicts exist between them?
How do their relationships change over the course of the story?
These questions can help you develop deeper and more layered relationships between your characters, giving your story more depth.
List of 40 character flaws
Stubbornness, Unyielding in one's own views, even when wrong.
Impatience, Difficulty waiting for long-term results.
Self-doubt, Constant uncertainty despite evident abilities.
Quick temper, Excessive reactions to provocations.
Selfishness, Prioritizing one's own needs over others'.
Arrogance, Overestimating one's own abilities.
Trust issues, Difficulty trusting others.
Perfectionism, Setting unreachable high standards.
Fear of change, Avoiding changes.
Haunted by the past, Old mistakes or traumas influencing the present.
Jealousy, Envious of others' successes.
Laziness, Hesitant to exert effort.
Vindictiveness, Strong desire for revenge.
Prejudice, Unfair biases against others.
Shyness, Excessive timidity.
Indecisiveness, Difficulty making decisions.
Vulnerability, Overly sensitive to criticism.
Greed, Strong desire for more (money, power, etc.).
Dishonesty, Tendency to distort the truth.
Recklessness, Ignoring the consequences of one's actions.
Cynicism, Negative attitude and distrust.
Cowardice, Lack of courage in critical moments.
Hotheadedness, Quick, often thoughtless reactions.
Contentiousness, Tendency to provoke conflicts.
Forgetfulness, Difficulty remembering important details.
Kleptomania, Compulsion to steal things.
Hypochondria, Excessive concern about one's health.
Pessimism, Expecting the worst in every situation.
Narcissism, Excessive self-love.
Control freak, Inability to let go or trust others.
Tactlessness, Inability to address sensitive topics sensitively.
Hopelessness, Feeling that nothing will get better.
Dogmatism, Rigidity in one's own beliefs.
Unreliability, Inability to keep promises.
Closed-offness, Difficulty expressing emotions.
Impulsiveness, Acting without thinking.
Stubbornness, Reluctance to accept advice.
Wounded pride, Overly sensitive to criticism of oneself.
Isolation, Tendency to withdraw from others.
Why Passover Is One of Judaism’s (of The Real Jews Not of The Zionist 🐷 🐖 🐗 🐖) Most Important Holidays
Passover, one of Judaism's most revered holidays, honors the ancient Israelites' freedom from slavery in Egypt.
— By Erin Blakemore | April 15, 2024
Rabbi Pinsk Karlin and other ultra-Orthodox Jews collect water from a spring to make matzoh, a traditional handmade unleavened bread for Passover, at a mountain spring in the outskirts of Jerusalem. Jews are forbidden to eat leavened foodstuffs during Passover. Photograph By Ariel Schalit, AP
As the days brighten and spring kicks into full swing, Jews all over the world prepare for Passover, a weeklong holiday that is one of Judaism’s most widely celebrated and most important observances. Also known by its Hebrew name Pesach, Passover combines millennia of religious traditions—and it’s about much more than matzoh and gefilte fish.
The Origins of Passover
The story of Passover can be found in the book of Exodus in the Hebrew Bible, which relates the enslavement of the Israelites and their subsequent escape from ancient Egypt.
Fearing that the Israelites will outnumber his people, the Egyptian Pharaoh enslaves them and orders every newly born Jewish son murdered. One son is Moses, whose birth has been foretold as the savior of the Israelites. He is saved and raised by the pharaoh’s daughter.
William Brassey Hole's "The Passage of the Red Sea" depicts the biblical story from Exodus in which God, acting through Moses, parts the Red Sea to allow the Israelites to cross to safety out of Egypt. Lebrecht History/Bridgeman Images
In adulthood, God speaks to Moses, urging him to tell Pharaoh to let his people go. But the pharaoh refuses. In return, God brings ten consecutive plagues down on Egypt (think: pestilence, swarms of locusts, and water turning to blood), but spares the Israelites.
During the final plague, an avenging angel goes door to door in Egypt, smiting every household’s firstborn son. God has other plans for the Israelites, instructing Moses to tell them to slaughter a lamb, then brush its blood on the sides and tops of their doorframes so that the avenging angel will “pass over.” Then they are to eat the sacrificial lamb with bitter herbs and unleavened—without yeast—bread. This is the last straw for Pharaoh, who frees the Israelites and banishes them from Egypt.
What’s on a Seder Plate
Modern Passover celebrations commemorate and even reenact many of the biblical events. The seder (“order”), the ritual meal that is the centerpiece of Passover celebrations, incorporates foods that represent elements of the story.
Bitter herbs (often lettuce and horseradish) stand for the bitterness of slavery. A roasted shank bone commemorates the sacrificial lamb. An egg has multiple interpretations: Some hold that it stands for new life, and others see it as standing for the Jewish people’s mourning over the struggles that awaited them in exile. Vegetables are dipped into saltwater representing the tears of the enslaved Israelites. Haroset, a sweet paste made of apples, wine, and walnuts or dried fruits, represents the mortar the enslaved Israelites used to build Egypt’s store cities.
The centerpiece of modern Passover celebrations is the seder, a ritual meal commemorating the Israelites' escape from enslavement in Egypt. The dinner involves readings from a manuscript called the Haggadah. The Sarajevo Haggadah, pictured here, is one of the oldest, dating back to the 14th century. Photograph By Zev Radovan, Bridgeman Images
During a traditional seder, participants eat unleavened bread, or matzoh, three times, and drink wine four times. They read from a Haggadah, a guide to the rite, hear the story of Passover, and answer four questions about the purpose of their meal. Children get involved, too, and search for an afikomen, a piece of broken matzoh, that has been hidden in the home. Every seder is different, and is governed by community and family traditions.
How is Passover Celebrated
Passover observances vary in and outside of Israel. The holiday lasts one week in Israel and eight days in the rest of the world, in commemoration of the week in which the Israelites were pursued by the Egyptians as they went into exile.
During those days, many Jews refrain from eating leavened bread; some also abstain from work during the last two days of Passover and attend special services before and during Passover week. Orthodox and Conservative Jews outside of Israel participate in two seders; Reform Jews and those inside Israel only celebrate one.
But no matter where or how you observe Passover, its celebrations underscore powerful themes of strength, hope, and triumph over adversity and anti-Semitism.
A Brief History of Matzoh: 'It's Not Supposed To Taste Good'
Restrictions around matzoh are meaningful and refreshing to many: here’s why.
— By April Fulton | Published: May 17, 2023
Matzoh is central to Passover, when Jews are prohibited from eating leavened food. Matzoh must be baked within around 18 minutes to prevent rising. Photograph By Becky Harlan, National Geographic Image Collection
Matzoh, known by Jews worldwide as “the bread of affliction,” is a cracker-like food made of flour and water eaten to commemorate the Hebrew slaves’ exodus from Egypt. The bland crisp takes the place of bread for the eight days of Passover.
While the aforementioned affliction may have changed over the years from one of desert-trekking deprivation to palatal hardship, most Hebrew scholars agree on one thing: It is not supposed to taste good.
Yet, for at least the first day of the holiday, many people actually crave it. Why?
For answers to this burning question about the nature of matzoh, we turn to Michael Wex, the author of Rhapsody in Schmaltz: Yiddish Food and Why We Can’t Stop Eating It.
“Now we eat it because we don’t have to eat it,” he says. In other words, because God’s chosen people have other choices the rest of the year, they look forward to eating matzoh to commemorate when Jews had no other choice but matzoh. And when it pops up in the grocery stores, many non-Jews pick up a few boxes, too.
According to the Hebrew bible, after a long protracted battle that featured God-directed plagues like frogs, boils, locusts, and the slaughter of first-born sons, the Egyptians freed the Hebrew slaves. The Jews left hastily, without time to let their bread rise. God basically tells them to take their dough and go, and that they’ll be cut off from Him if they eat anything leavened, i.e. yeasted or risen, for seven days. Hence—the first matzoh—the “roadside fast food from the ancient near East,” as Wex calls it.
The Passover seder dinner is centered around the matzoh, and is a virtual reenactment of the story of Exodus. In our family, the long, ritualistic dinner is frequently summed up for uninitiated guests in this way: “They tried to kill us, we’re still here, let’s eat.”
And so we eat matzoh, both plain and in forms that attempt to make it more palatable by adding salt and egg to create dumpling-like matzoh balls for chicken soup; or by topping it with sugary jam. Kids particularly love chocolate-covered matzoh for dessert.
Yes, there are other foods served at Passover, much of which varies according to where you’re from or what your grandma always made. Ours almost always includes brisket, kugel (a kind of casserole), and some kind of token vegetable. But matzoh is front and center.
There are strict specifications for making matzoh, of course. (Judaism is all about rules.) First of all, you only have 18 minutes from adding water to the flour to bake it. That’s the amount of time scholars say you have before the dough starts to rise, which would make the whole business un-kosher for Passover.
The result is a thin, flat plate-sized wafer “without even a kiss of salt,” Wex says. The first matzoh were probably round. The advent of machine-made matzoh led to the rise of the easier to pack and stack square marvel many of us know today. But the flavor? Pretty much the same, to my taste.
Traditional matzoh is broken ceremoniously at the beginning of the Jewish Passover seder.
There are also prescriptions for the matzoh to be harvested at a certain time of day and when it is dry enough, as prescribed by a rabbi, to prevent fermentation (i.e. leavening.) Dan Barber, back-to-the-land advocate and chef, made the case that the result of this close supervision may mean the wheat harvested is of higher quality, and therefore Jewish law may actually make food taste better.
But Wex and other scholars say this is beside the point. From Rhapsody in Schmaltz:
“There are those who say that God gave us cardboard so that we could describe the taste of matzoh, but taste is what matzoh is not about...Matzoh doesn’t need to be good, it only needs to be there—inside of 18 minutes. Or 22, according to some authorities; however long it took to walk to Tiberias from Migdal Nunia, the probable home of Mary Magdalene—a single Roman mile.”
Wex argues that the creation of Jewish dietary laws, particularly as they relate to matzoh, create for Jews a sense of otherness. While rules like no pork and no cheeseburgers may seem oppressive these days, in ancient times, it gave the Jewish people a new way of thinking. Once they were no longer slaves, they were “free to act in ways that have nothing to do with Egypt,” including, throwing out all their learned notions of what to eat.
There are entire Jewish communities, of course, who follow the ancient prescriptions to the letter for Passover and beyond. But do modern Jews still need to follow these ancient laws? Wex says you can have a strong Jewish conscience and not follow the dietary laws, but you should understand them “if you want your religion to stick around.”
The Very Ancient Passover of One of the Smallest Religions in the World
For thousands of years, the tiny Samaritan community has observed Passover according to its biblical laws.
— By Kristin Romey | Published: April 19, 2019
Samaritan boys wrangle a goat towards the sacrifice grounds on Passover eve in Kiryat Luza, West Bank. Photograph By Simon Norfolk
Samaritans are one of the world’s smallest religious groups, claiming descent from three of the 12 tribes of ancient Israel. They consider themselves the true observants of Israelite religion, and view Judaism as a religious practice corrupted during the Babylonian exile. This separation is clearly delineated in the geography of the Holy Land: While Mount Moriah in Jerusalem is where the Jewish Temple was decreed by God, the Samaritans followed the command of that same God and built their temple on the peak of Mount Gerizim, some 30 miles to the north.
Samaritan elders gather during the Passover eve sacrifice. There are a little more than 800 people in the Samaritan community, almost evenly divided between the Tel Aviv suburb of Holon and the West Bank village of Kiryat Luza. Photograph By Simon Norfolk
Today, Mount Gerizim, at an elevation of almost 3,000 feet, is one of the highest points in the Palestinian territories, and commands a sweeping view of the bustling city of Nablus and the West Bank villages that surround it. On its ridge is the village of Kiryat Luza, where, on the eve of each Passover, the roughly 800 members of the Samaritan community gather to pray and observe their liberation from slavery in Egypt.
Left: A young Samaritan boy wears a distinctive red hat known as a tarbush. Right: worshipers and visitors mingle as the sacrificed goats roast for hours in large pit ovens. Photographs By Simon Norfolk
In remembrance of that event, the Samaritans follow the Torah mandate that a sheep or lamb be sacrificed on Passover eve and consumed before dawn of the next day. In Kiryat Luza, this is a communal event, in which prayers are recited and dozens of animals are dispatched simultaneously by men dressed in all white and then roasted in enormous earthen pits. In the hours after midnight, the meat is heaped on trays alongside bundles of bitter herbs and dished out in a celebratory community gathering under the stars.
Following a group countdown, these Samaritan men will simultaneously plunge their skinned and dressed offerings into the blazing earthen oven. All of the meat must be eaten or burned before the sun rises on the first day of Passover. Photograph By Alessio Romenzi
Seven days later, the Samaritan community marks the end of Passover with a more solemn event. Once again under the stars just a few hours before dawn, the white-robed men of the community gather in front of their small synagogue, young sons beside them, rubbing the sleep from their eyes.
Led by their head priest cradling a silver Torah case, the men ascend Mount Gerizim in the darkness, climbing stone steps past the remains of their temple, destroyed by the Hasmoneans in the early second century B.C., and the rubble of a church built on their sacred peak by the Byzantine emperor Zeno some 600 years later. At points along the ascent, they stop to pray and then continue on as the dawn sky turns periwinkle and the paper-thin blossoms of scarlet poppies begin to unfurl.
On the seventh day of Passover, white-robed Samaritan men climb to the peak of Mount Gerizim, where their ancient temple once stood. Photograph By Simon Norfolk
The procession ends near a stone slab believed by Samaritans to be the site where Abraham intended to sacrifice his son Isaac. The sun breaks above the horizon and the high priest raises the shining Torah case above his head as he concludes the group prayer. It’s a spring day on Mount Gerizim, and once again this tiny community has gathered together to fulfill its sacred duties before God.
Reminder : ho raha hai to karlo ,nahi to rehny do.
Mai samj b gya aur samja b nhi.
اس رعونت سے وہ جیتے ہیں کہ مرنا ہی نہیں
تخت پر بیٹھے ہیں یوں جیسے اترنا ہی نہیں
یوں مہ و انجم کی وادی میں اڑے پھرتے ہیں وہ
خاک کے ذروں پہ جیسے پاؤں دھرنا ہی نہیں
ان کا دعویٰ ہے کہ سورج بھی انہی کا ہے غلام
شب جو ہم پر آئی ہے اس کو گزرنا ہی نہیں
کیا علاج اس کا اگر ہو مدعا ان کا یہی
اہتمام رنگ و بو گلشن میں کرنا ہی نہیں
ظلم سے ہیں برسر پیکار آزادی پسند
ان پہاڑوں میں جہاں پر کوئی جھرنا ہی نہیں
دل بھی ان کے ہیں سیہ خوراک زنداں کی طرح
ان سے اپنا غم بیاں اب ہم کو کرنا ہی نہیں
انتہا کر لیں ستم کی لوگ ابھی ہیں خواب میں
جاگ اٹھے جب لوگ تو ان کو ٹھہرنا ہی نہیں
حبیب جالب
To that world is no longer my own,no need to remember the pain.
Mann Nami goyam Analhaq yaar ni goyat go Choon na goyam choon mera dildar ni goyat go (I did not say that I am the Truth, my Friend said so. And why shouldn’t I say so for my Beloved asked me to say so.)
2.Arrey logo tumhara kia, mein jaanoo’n mera khuda jaaney Oh those who point fingers at me, why does it concern you? It’s between me & my God ( and God sees in the soul not outer trappings)
3. Jo Zarr maango tou beyzarr hoon, jo sarr maango tou haazir hoon Jo mukh moroon tou kaafir hoon, mein jaanoon mera khuda jaaney If you want gold, I don’t have any, if you want my head,i gift my life for you, “If I turn away my face (from trials of love), call me an infidel. It’s between me and my God.
4. Charha mansoor sooli par, jo wakif tha wohi dilbar Arey mullah janaza parh, mein jaanoon mera khuda jaaney Mansoor was hanged , only those who knew his love for God understood his total annihilation of himself in God’s love O priests recite his funeral prayers, It’s between me & my God.
( explanation : Mansoor Al-Hallaj was condemned to hang by the neck for shouting in ecstasy Anal-Haq, Anal-Haq (I am the Truth, I am the Truth). The orthodoxy understood this to mean that he was claiming to be God himself, whereas for him it was simply a total annihilation of himself. Mansoor Al-Hallaj climbed the gallows with his head held high, not the least daunted by his imminent death.)
5. Tumhi dilbar ho Sarwar ka, Tumhi ho pyara Haider ka Pilaao jaam kausar ka, mein jaanoon mera khuda jaaney (Mansoor ) you are the beloved of both the Prophet pbuh and Hazrat Ali offer him a drink from kausar, it’s between me and my God (Note : Sarwar is a title given to the prophet pbuh and means chief Haider is title of Hazrat Ali and means lion Hauzuʾl-Kausar is the fountain of abundance in Paradise. A drink from this on arrival makes one forget all bad experiences of life jaam e Kausar – a cup from the fountain of kausar . )
6. Wohi ehsaan mujh per ker Ameer ul Mouminee’n Haider Bulley ka sawaal poora ker, mein jaanoon mera khuda jaaney… . Oh leader of the faithful, Ali , please offer a sip to Bulleh too and accept his supplication. Main jaanun mera Khuda jaaney,.
EXPLANATION CREDIT: MAM RANA SAFVI
THE 'DEFINITION' OF 'CLASS'
The definition of class defined by so called "high class" casteists is surely not the real one, Class was never about expensive stuff ,black glasses,branded shoes ,high billing restaurants, having ones own luxury house and car,
Class is about walking on a street to get to the nearby for some groceries or something while exploring the way along, class is about kind gestures towards each person you see on the road no matter to what financial status they belong ,
Class is about sitting in a metro/ rickshaw beside a person who is not as maintained as you are but still having a normal kind feeling instead of being hesitant to be around.
Class is to follow your own ambitions without thinking about what the world will say ,class is to put off your shoes on road and walking barefoot cause it's hurting without having a second thought of what the world will say.,
Class is to not get fished in the trap of trends and normalise being not part of a rat race, instead having a sip of your coconut juice while watching a sunset while the world would be still chasing one another for being classy.
.....,
CLASS IS A HUMBLE MINDSET IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH LUXORIOUS LIFESTYLE,ACCENT AND DEMANEOUR.
Meri Zindagi To Firaaq Hai, Wo Azal Se Dil Main Makee’n Sahi Wo Nigaah-E-Shoq Se Door Hain, Rag-E-Jaa’n Se Laakh Qaree’n Sahi
Humein Jaan Deni Hai Aik Din, Wo Kisi Tarha, Wo Kahee’n Sahi Humein Aap Khinchiye Daar Par, Jo Nahi Koi To Hum Hi Sahi
Sar-E-Tour Ho, Sar-E-Hashr Ho, Humein Intezar Qubool Hai Wo Kabhi Milein, Wo Kahee’n Milein, Wo Kabhi Sahi, Wo Kahee’n Sahi
Na Ho, Un Pe Jo Mera Bas Nahi K Ye Aashiqi Hai Hawas Nahi
Jo Ho Faisla Wo Sunaaiye, Issay Hashr Par Na Uthaaiye Jo Kare’n Ge Aap Sitam Waha’n, Wo Abhi Sahi, Wo Yahi’n Sahi
Usey Dekhne Ki Jo Lau Lagi To Naseer Dekh Hi Len Ge Hum Wo Hazaar Aankh Se Door ho, Wo Hazaar Parda-Nashee’n Sahi
Chinaphobia: If China Arms Russia, the U.S. Should Kill China’s Aircraft Industry😂😂😂
Beijing’s aerospace future is uniquely dependent on Western companies. U.S. and EU trade sanctions could bring its indigenous aviation sector to a halt.
— Foreign Policy | By Richard Aboulafia | March 20, 2023
A COMAC C919 narrow-body airliner on display during the 2021 China Aviation Industry Conference And Nanchang Air Show on October 30, 2021 in Nanchang, China. Li Tong/VCG Via Getty Images
As Chinese President Xi Jinping meets in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, the war in Ukraine will be high on the agenda. While the Chinese leader might pressure Russia to pursue a peace deal, there are also worries in Western capitals that the authoritarian allies could agree to work together more closely.
A Chinese decision to provide Russia with weapons would change the world. Only China has the stockpiles and industrial capacity to replace Russia’s ruinous equipment losses in its war against Ukraine. Worse, it would help cement a Russia–China alliance, one pitted against Western interests. U.S. President Joe Biden and other Western leaders have warned China’s leadership that providing lethal technologies to Russia, on top of the non-lethal aid already provided, would have serious consequences.
Indeed, the West does have some leverage. One option would be to bring China’s commercial aircraft industry to a halt, thereby striking a blow against Beijing’s economic, technological, and transport aspirations. It would be a major blow to Xi’s prestige, too, since he has made technological self-sufficiency a key priority for the country.
The aviation industry is not just a matter of pride; it is foundational to China’s infrastructure and an essential mode of transport for many middle-class Chinese. According to the World Bank, passenger air traffic in China grew more than tenfold between 2000 and the 2019 peak, from 62 million passengers to 660 million passengers.
The exponential growth in passenger numbers has made China a major customer for Western-made jets: based on manufacturer-reported numbers, in 2000, China took 2 percent of world jetliner production. In 2018, the peak year for imports, it took 23 percent of world jetliner production.
The United States and its allies have already decided to decouple from China when it comes to semiconductors and telecommunications systems. Jetliner manufacturing would be a logical next step. After all, China’s vaunted commercial transports—the MA700 regional turboprop transport, ARJ21 regional jet, C919 narrow-body passenger plane, and proposed CR929 wide-body are heavily dependent upon imported Western technologies and systems.
While China wants to develop home-grown substitutes for these imported components, ultimately creating purely Chinese jets, this will be a very long road. Besides, modern jet producers rely on purchases of best-in-class technologies from a globalized industry; autarky is a very bad way to run a jetliner industry. Even the U.S. jetliner industry has long been wedded to industrial partners in Canada, France, Japan, the U.K., and many other countries.
“Engines are the Weakest Link in China’s Civil Aviation Plans.”
Engines are the weakest link in China’s civil aviation plans. Airframes and aircraft systems and technologies may be difficult to develop, but jet engines are at a completely different level in terms of barriers to entry. In fact, only three companies, located in two countries (General Electric (GE) and Raytheon/Pratt & Whitney in the United States and Rolls-Royce in the U.K.) build commercial jet engines. France’s Safran plays a role as a partner to GE in the CFM joint venture, but otherwise there are no other sourcing options.
Russia could not become a jet engine supplier option for China. The Soviet Union had a second-rate commercial engine industry for mostly domestic applications, but Russia’s efforts to revive it have been uncertain and very slow. Today, Russia remains completely dependent on Western aircraft and engines; it has only been able to keep its existing aircraft flying by illegally evading sanctions.
Only tiny numbers of obsolete Russian models have been manufactured over the last few decades. There are plans for new engines, but international sanctions, massive corruption, and the brain drain of the last year have likely doomed whatever chances Russia’s commercial aviation engine industry once had. Besides, the priority is now military systems.
As a consequence of the limited number of jet engine suppliers, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China’s (COMAC) ARJ21 regional jet and C919 are both powered by GE or GE/Safran engines, imported from the United States. For the ARJ21, there is no backup plan to GE’s CF34 engine.
For the C919, China is developing its CJ-1000A engine as an alternative to the GE/Safran Leap-1C, but it won’t enter service until the end of the decade. And the CJ-1000A is also heavily dependent upon key imported Western technologies. Like China’s jetliners, China’s first attempt at a commercial engine could easily be shut down with technology embargoes.
Killing the current CJ-1000 project would bring China back to the jet engine drawing board. Predictably, the Chinese government has been trying to develop its own engine industry independent of imported components, a process involving intellectual property theft and other desperate measures.
But again, the track record of commercial jet engine development outside the United States and U.K. is not encouraging. And as with aircraft, the big three engine suppliers would never think of building engines without relying on suppliers outside their home countries.
With or without Western sanctions, a best-case scenario for China’s aerospace aspirations is a second-rate, home-grown engine available in the mid 2030s. These would power Chinese jetliners which, relative to Western models, would offer lower reliability, higher fuel burn and operating costs, and uncertain product support.
The legal structure for jetliner decoupling is already in place. COMAC’s key parent companies are on the U.S. Military End User (MEU) List, which essentially prohibits technology exports to entities that “represent an unacceptable risk of use in or diversion to a ‘military end use’” in China and other countries.
The MEU List’s application to aerospace exports to China is somewhat opaque, perhaps deliberately. All of China’s thousands of Western jets use U.S. technology. While its parent companies are on the MEU List, COMAC itself is not. But clarifying the situation, by putting COMAC directly on the MEU List, would be a very simple—and economically devastating—move.
China’s MA700 aircraft provides a useful example of how jetliner decoupling would unfold. In September 2021, Canada—in conjunction with the United States—suddenly denied export licenses for the Pratt & Whitney Canada PW150 engine used on this 70-seat airliner. This meant that China’s national 70-seat regional turboprop transport, in development since 2007, was dead in its tracks.
Since then, the MA700 has effectively been airbrushed out of China’s aviation plans, like a disgraced Politburo member erased from Soviet documents. A prototype might have flown sometime last year, possibly with a few engines that had already been imported, but right now this aircraft has no future without access to new production engines.
“Jetliner decoupling, For the Most Part, Would Only Hurt China’s Aviation Industry, Not the West’s.”
A Western decision to starve COMAC of the components needed for its larger jetliners would be deeply embarrassing for China. China’s efforts to build a commercial aviation industry have had little success since they began in the 1970s with the failed Y-10 program.
But since COMAC’s ARJ21 program began in 2002, the government has devoted prodigious resources to the industry’s development. Sash Tusa, an aerospace and defense analyst at Agency Partners, estimated that China had spent at least $67 billion on its jetliner programs over the last 20 years. Tens of thousands of workers are employed in an industry that has figuratively and literally failed to get off the ground.
Killing these programs would represent more than just billions in sunk costs (and probably unemployed workers). It would also mean that China would have no choice but to keep importing Western jets from Airbus and Boeing. The Russian jetliner industry, long dormant but seeking revival, has been hobbled by sanctions and corruption, and doesn’t appear able to build jetliners for internal use, let alone export.
And it isn’t as though China can directly retaliate. Chinese industry plays a negligible role in Western jet-makers’ supply chains (although it does play a more significant role in maintenance, repair, and overhaul work; and in global jetliner finance). Jetliner decoupling, for the most part, would only hurt China’s aviation industry, not the West’s.
Therefore, Chinese officials would face a day of reckoning. The autarkic Made in China 2025 policies espoused by Xi would be exposed as extremely limited, or even a complete fantasy. China would have a simple choice: rethink selling weapons to Russia or admit that plans for a self-reliant national aviation industry are untenable, at least for the next 12 to 15 years.
Of course, if China then doubles down on arming Russia, there would also be the option of sanctioning China’s existing jetliner fleet, which is almost completely Western-made and therefore dependent on a steady stream of spare parts. Chinese aviation’s rapid growth would be replaced with steady capacity decline.
The loss of this key growth market would be very bad news for the entire global aviation industry, but it would also gravely damage China’s economy. An unreliable air transport system, impaired by sanctions, would mean that China, like Russia, would wind up like Iran—dependent on an aging fleet of existing jets, with highly uncertain levels of sustainability and safety.
Aviation decoupling between the West and China is neither inevitable nor desirable. However, the prospect of Russia rearming itself with Chinese weapons, and the two countries allied together against open societies, is worse. The threat of crippling China’s jetliner industry would be a strong weapon for preventing that outcome.
— Richard Aboulafia Is An Other Chinaphobic Idiot managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, an aerospace and defense industry management consultancy. He has followed the industry as an analyst and consultant since 1988.