Assessing the impact of the Trump administration on LGBTQ issues
This is only speculative, and I want to be clear that there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to trying to figure out what a Trump administration really means for LGBTQ folks. He’s said very little, and sometimes contradictory statements about his stance. But I think it’s important to note what things are relatively safe under the Trump administration and where we should be genuinely concerned. This is not intended to scare anyone, but to give you some things to think about in terms of making very real and tangible decisions in the remaining months before some of these things happen.
Marriage equality - While Trump has expressed his opposition to same-sex marriage, and a desire to appoint conservative judges who would have opposed the Obergefell ruling, I think it’s reasonably safe to assume that same-sex marriage will continue to be the law of the land. I don’t think has the desire or political capital to overturn this one, and an attempt at a constitutional amendment would be deeply unpopular.
States with nondiscrimination laws - I live in Minnesota where gender identity and sexual orientation have been protected since the mid-1990′s. For those states with robust protections at the state level, I think there’s little chance that those laws will be overturned at a federal level. Republicans, and Trump, have suggested many of these issues are a state-level decision. A greater concern, though this is not specific to Trump, would be the continued support for religious freedom exemptions at the state level, where these laws could be undermined by emboldened conservatives.
Out LGB Military Personnel - It’s been 5 years since “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” was removed, and I would argue that even with Republican majorities, the work of having to go through and discharge LGB service members who have been actively and openly serving in the years since is likely to be opposed by both popular opinion and military leadership.
Federal process for trans individuals - One of Hillary Clinton’s accomplishments as Secretary of State was making it easier for trans folks to change their gender markers on passport documentation. Similarly federal changes were made to ease the process for social security. I’m not 100% certain, but I think these bureaucratic changes are likely to remain as-is, they’re just not that big of a political target.
Municipalities with nondiscrimination laws in Republican states - To be fair, this has little to do with Trump specifically, but as with North Carolina’s HB2, I think there’s a reasonable risk that progressive municipalities in conservative states may see more attempts to regulate nondiscrimination ordinances under the banner of religious freedom. I’m hopeful that the model of HB2 and its backlash may make this more unpopular, but it’s a risk.
Trans people in the military - While I would assess LGB folks as fairly safe, transgender individuals in the military have reason for concern. The Republican party has repeatedly suggested that allowing trans folks to serve is a “social experiment” and the changes under Obama are still relatively new and tenuous at best. I hope it’s not the case, especially since it’s well known that trans folks serve in the military at higher than average levels, but I am nervous about what this administration will do on that issue.
Federal hate crimes enforcement - I don’t think hate crime laws are going away, but I have a strong feeling that this “law and order” administration is going to be far less focused on crimes against the LGBTQ community as it shifts focus to immigration and anti-terrorism actions. That likely means less federal involvement, support, and data collection on these crimes, which is tragic.
Various same-sex benefits - Trump proudly trotted out a parental leave plan early in his campaign…that only covered maternity leave. Expect to see more omissions like that.
An LGBT White House Liaison and other representation - It may not be a position with a lot of direct power, but during both the Clinton and Obama administrations there has been an LGBT liaison for the White House, most recently a trans woman of color. Whether that position goes away or not, I think it’s probable that the amount of LGBTQ+ representation in a Trump administration is going to be negligible, or largely limited to white gay men.
The dream of a progressive Supreme Court - A more conservative Supreme Court has largely been the norm for recent history, but there have been rulings - like the Obergefell decision - that have been great victories. Supreme Court justices were a significant point in the election season, and thanks to Republican obstruction, Trump will likely get to fill Scalia’s seat with congressional support. Unfortunately that could mean a negative ruling in the Gavin Grim/trans bathrooms case that will be heard this coming spring, and could have some serious lasting impact on the ability for LGBTQ advocates to try and battle discrimination through the court system. Let’s just hope the liberal justices stay, and that 2020 brings a change.
Inclusive healthcare - The Affordable Care Act is a pretty big deal, and Trump has pledged to repeal it. What will come after is a big unknown. But I think that action could have some pretty major ramifications for LGBTQ healthcare. LGBTQ folks are more likely to need subsidized healthcare, and from everything from trans exclusions in health plans to funding for HIV/AIDS research I think there is strong reason for concern.
Trans protections for Federal contract employees - One of Obama’s executive orders, in lieu of getting more comprehensive protections through congress was to extend protections for sexual orientation and gender identity to federal employees and contractors. Given Trump’s pledge to rescind Obama’s orders, I think this is very much in jeopardy. That may not mean anything directly (ie. I’m not sure we’ll see mass firings or anything) but it’s certainly cause for concern.
Expanded Title VII and Title IX protections - The Obama administration has in the past couple of years been fighting aggressively to expand the interpretations of both Title VII (employment) and Title IX (schools) to include gender identity and sexual orientation as part of existing protections based on sex/gender. That expansive view is what led to the Department of Justice challenging North Carolina’s HB2. Under a Trump administration those interpretations are likely to shift back to a far more limited definition of assigned sex. That’s bad news for LGBTQ youth and for employees in states without nondiscrimination laws on the books.
The Equality Act - The Equality Act like its predecessor the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (first introduced in 1994) was a major priority in Hillary Clinton’s campaign platform. With a Republican congress and White House it’s dead in the water, and with it the best hope for legal protections in housing/employment/public accommodations at a national level. Optimistically a congressional swing in 2018 could open the door again, but I think 2020 is the next real opportunity to create a climate that would make this possible.
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