Okay friend, let’s see. (All the math below is courtesy of @chocolatemoneyletmemakeanaccount, @awkwardlesbian and @egalitarian-metalhead because I suck at math)
- 7 out of 1000 rapes (total rapes, not reported ones) result in a felony conviction.
- 6 out of 7 people convicted of a felony count of rape, spend a day in jail.
- 6 out of every 1000 rapes end up with someone in jail.
Good? Okay, now let’s see how many of those are innocent.
- 1-2% of rapes reported to the police are deemed “false”. (the term “false” also accounts for unfounded accusations, which aren’t necessarily false.)
- thus, let’s say that only 1% of rapes are actually FALSE. (remember that said “false” rapes could also be genuine mistakes, such as misidentification of the offender in a lineup)
This means that 0.006% of all rapes result in an innocent man spending time in jail. That’s 6 in 100,000. This is assuming a false accusation has the same likelihood of conviction as a true accusation.
But wait. Let’s take it a step further. Using RAINN’s statistics about the United States only, 321,500 people age 12 and older are sexually assaulted in one given year. If only .6% of rapes lead to jail time, then that means that 1929 rapes lead to jail time every year.
If 1%, are false, then 1929 x .01 = 19.29 rounded to 19.
So realistically, we can safely say that about 19 people were wrongly incarcerated for rape this year. And that’s an overstatement - that’s assuming that people who are falsely accused have the same chance of getting convicted as people who are rightly accused. Which just isn’t true.
But since we’re having so much fun, let’s take this even further!
Using population data from the census, we can calculate the probability, for any given year, that a man older than 5 years old will go to jail for a rape he did not commit, by dividing 19.29 by the number of males over 5 years of age. The answer is 0.00001259% - or 1.259*10^-5%! And, the probability that a male older than five years of age will go to jail for a rape he did not commit at least once in his life - as opposed to the annual probability - turns out to be the same (if you want the details on that, you can dm me but be prepared to get into some stat).
So, @guided-spirit-walker, you are wrong. The effect of false rape accusations is virtually nonexistent. Not to mention that even when we are faced with real rape accusations, we wear the offender’s name on our shirts to show him solidarity, or extend his trial date so he can play football, or harass the victim on social media, or elect him as president.
Sure, life must suck for those 19 people. But let me ask you:
Why are you so concerned about 19 people when 1 in 5 women are assaulted in their lifetimes?
I think it’s pretty clear why. I’m not the sexist here.
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