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@cyclocane-blog
Tropical Storm Andrea
Per the NHC, advisories will be issued on Tropical Storm Andrea very soon.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST- CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
Ahora una probabilidad de 90% de la zona a la derecha convertirse en un ciclón tropical durante las próximas 48 horas.
El nombre de la próxima huracán es Barbara
The name of the next hurricane is Barbara
Es posible que una de los 2 zonas de probabilidad podría ser futura Tormenta Tropical Barbara.
En el mapa la zona roja a la derecha tiene una probabilidad de 60% de convertirse en un ciclón tropical durante las próximas 48 horas.
It is possible that one of the two probability zones could be future Tropical Storm Barbara.
On the map, the zone on the right has a 60% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
potential path of Cyclone Freda
Cyclone Freda potential future landfall targets. ECMWF currently shows a landfall in Australia (previously it was showing it dissipating out near New Caledonia). GFS is still showing a New Zealand landfall.
Future Tropical Cyclone forming near the Samoan Islands. Images are from the GFS weather prediction model. Per the GFS, this new storm looks like it would still be pretty strong by the time it reached New Zealand. The ECMWF, however, shows the storm dissipating much much sooner, out near New Caledonia.
Simulated future radar for today's storms. VA/NC/SC are all in the area where **strong** tornadoes are possible today (strong tornadoes are EF2 on a scale from 0 to 5).
US severe threat continues tomorrow. [View the animated loop of simulated future radar](http://i.imgur.com/Vw1Q9.gif)
[View the full animated loop](http://assets3.pinimg.com/upload/380906080953443523_NuxxeQCO.jpg) An experimental visualization of what the radar could look like today. Did you know that there's a [risk of strong tornadoes today](http://wickedwx.com)?.
GFS forecast showing the future remnants of Cyclone Evan hitting New Zealand. Per MetService in New Zealand: > there is moderate confidence of heavy rain and severe gales for Northland during Saturday and Sunday, and low confidence of heavy rain in Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay as indicated on the chart. [Cyclone Evan tracker](http://www.cyclocane.com/evan-storm-tracker/) [Full image loop of Evan's potential path](http://www.cyclocane.com/evan-spaghetti-models/)
Cyclone Evan potential future path from the GFS forecast model. source: [Evan spaghetti models](http://www.cyclocane.com/evan-spaghetti-models/) / [Evan storm tracker](http://www.cyclocane.com/evan-storm-tracker/)
Potential future path of Cyclone Evan as based on the GFS forecast run from December 12th, noon UTC time. [cyclocane](http://www.cyclocane.com/)
After apparently achieving record low pressure strength for a tropical storm, [Isaac is finally a hurricane](http://www.cyclocane.com/isaac-storm-tracker/). > ...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE STATUS... Full details:
000 WTNT64 KNHC 281618 TCUAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE STATUS... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT...1620 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 160 MI...250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
Hurricane Warnings
Hurricane Local Statements are in effect: * [SHREVEPORT LA](http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-watch-shreveport-la/) ...ISAAC EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY... * [NEW ORLEANS LA](http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-watch-new-orleans-la/) ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE... * [LAKE CHARLES LA](http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-watch-lake-charles-la/) ...ISAAC ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... * [JACKSON MS](http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-watch-jackson-ms/) ...ISAAC JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT... * [MOBILE AL](http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-watch-mobile-al/) ...ISAAC ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... * [TALLAHASSEE FL](http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-watch-tallahassee-fl/) ...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST... *If this information was useful, let me know, and I'll post it more often.*
I've made a whole bunch of improvements to the [Hurricane Isaac page](http://www.cyclocane.com/isaac-storm-tracker/) on cyclocane today. Namely, I've added radar and satellite loops to make it easier to visualize where Isaac currently is. There are also links now to all of the local National Weather Service offices that have "Local Hurricane Statements" in effect, so that you can get your hurricane warning information from a local source. As of the latest NHC forecast, they've shifted Isaac a little bit farther west ([map of what I'm talking about](http://www.cyclocane.com/isaac-storm-tracker/#stormtracker)), and it's not good for New Orleans. **As of now, the NHC is basically showing Hurricane Isaac making a direct hit on New Orleans.** Not good.