DefenseFilms

Because You Can't Keep Politics Out Of Sports

[defensefilms]

"It’s a change largely influenced by the hiring of Aden Durde as defensive coordinator. Aden Durde is himself, one of the more interesting coordinator hires in the league, being not only that he is originally from the UK but Aden Durde understands that personnel dictates philosophy. Rather than forcing Seattle into a traditional base-front identity, he built the scheme around the secondary’s depth"

-Sabelo Masemola via Substack

[defensefilms]

NFL Super Bowl Preview

In a rematch of one of the most memorable Super Bowls in recent memory, the New England Patriots will face off against the Seattle Seahawks.

It's interesting when you note the contrast in the careers of Drake Maye and Sam Darnold. An older quarterback who had to grow into the league versus a rookie quarterback who plays like he's already a made guy.

Aside from that, these two teams actually have a lot in common.

The Seattle Seahawks vs The New England Patriots

The pregame talk and hype around this game have revolved around Sam Darnold's career redemption and Drake Maye potentially being on the cusp of the greatest debut season for any NFL quarterback in history but let's start with the part of this game that can most likely alter a lot of the predictions and picks leading up to this game.

The New England Patriots have quietly boasted a top 5 defense in their own right and they've been on a tear all post season and they held teams to 209 total yards in the regular season with a league leading pass defense that held teams to 138 yards per game.

Now rightfully there are concerns over the quality of the quarterbacks they've played but you can only play who is in front of you.

On offense, the post season has been defined by "getting it done". New England haven't had a truly explosive game as far as scoring, but they have consistently found way and it's most evidenced by the play of Drake Maye.

Maye has been sacked 15 times in the post season alone. There have been shaky moments but in classic Patriots form, they just make less mistakes than their opponents like the 0 turnovers they had against the Broncos in the Championship game.

Add to this, that Drake Maye appears to have found his legs with 65 rushing yards, but against this defense, I think the Pats will allow Rhamondre Stevenson to be the bell cow. Anytime the Pats needed that physicality on offense, the combination of the O-line's blocking and Rhamondre Stevenson will deliver it for them. A very underrated part of this team.

Darnold and the Seahawks offense will have to approach with caution because New England's secondary have combined for 5 interceptions in the post season alone with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis really setting himself apart.

That means Darnold and the Seahawks passing game are going to have to be selective and so much of the approach will be dictated by how the Pats cover Jackson Smith-Njigba, however Rashid Shaheed could prove to be another pair of safe hands, he has 51 yards from 5 targets this post season and perhaps the Seahawks could use another threat against a team that will be well aware of Smith-Njigba.

Very much like New England is how the Seattle offensive line blocks for the run. Kenneth Walker has been a very serviceable back all season long and he was able to average 11.1 yards a carry in the post season. He was less effective against the Rams where he only had 3.3 yards a carry on 19 attempts.

The mandate is clear for Seattle.

The offense needs to protect Sam Darnold with a healthy dose of running, but also they need to exploit specific matchups down the field with the receivers, but my focus is going to be on that Seattle defense.

If it feels a little bit like Seattle is dominating the hype, then a lot of it has to be because of the confidence of that defense.

Drake Maye and the New England offense present some unique challenges but ultimately the main point of emphasis is going to be getting pressure on Maye.

I mentioned earlier that Maye using his legs, that worked well because the Denver Broncos base defense and personnel are a little bit more conventional, and most importantly, they were not expecting it.

Drake Maye running on the Seattle defense is a lot riskier. Seattle plays a nickel defense as their base, so what that means is they keep mostly defensive backs on the field and also more speed.

So, where the Broncos were not able to get to Maye when he left the pocket, the Seahawks will have their fastest defensive players and if they're really nervous about it, they can use Coby Bryant or Nick Emmanwori as a spy.

Seattle's defense would have watched the tape and seen Drake Maye's turnovers in this post season, and they are going to be feeling really opportunistic and will look to make plays on the ball.

This is something they'll truly be able to exploit if they can stop the run, but even then, I expect the Seahawks to constantly attempt to peanut punch and rip the ball because Seattle will know that if New England have another game with no turnovers, they'll likely win this thing.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks win 24-20

[defensefilms]

NFL Championship Weekend Reaction

Ladies and gentlemen, we have our Super Bowl matchup.

On February 8th, in just 2 weeks, the Seahawks and Patriots meet for a rematch of the 2015 Super Bowl.

It's been absolute war for these teams and for the most part, they are both deserving of their place in the big game. With that said, here is this week's Championship review and reaction.

1. New England Patriots defeated the Denver Broncos 10-7

The Broncos got so many parts of this game right.

From the beginning the playcalling on offense protected Jarret Stidham while giving him confidence at the same time. A long bomb passed over the top to Marvin Mimms, followed by another pass for the touchdown to Courtland Sutton, gave the Broncos all the momentum in the 1st half.

They then followed that with Vance Joseph's defense absolutely smothering Drake Maye and the Patriots receivers. Multiple passes almost getting turned into interceptions. Typically speaking, the Broncos will beat any team that allows them to sack their QB 5 times.

As much as the Patriots were stunned by the Broncos defense early, they did not make any critical mistakes, and they did not turn the ball over. That meant the Broncos offense had to be perfect without the benefit of a short field.

On the flipside of that, you had Sean Payton and the decision to go for it on 4th and 1 instead of kicking a field goal to take a 2 score lead. It turned the game massively, the Patriots tying the game on the ensuing drive to make it 7-7 going into half time.

As the game wore on, you got the sense that the only way the Broncos were going to get points was if the defense made a big play. The Patriots wisely did not risk the ball once the 2nd half began.

They ran it and ran it, and Drake Maye gets a lot of credit for his contributions to the run game. He is not noted for his scrambling ability but running when he saw openings kept the Broncos defense off balance.

In the 2nd half, New England led a 10-minute drive that ended in a field goal and controlling possession for almost an entire quarter on the road is how you cause panic in an opposing offense.

Overall, the Broncos should hold their heads up. They played the best offense in the AFC, without their starting quarterback and only lost by a field goal.

2. Seattle Seahawks defeated the Los Angeles Rams 31-27

This game was a thriller. Every possession felt like it had the highest stakes.

These teams were actually relatively evenly matched on paper but much of what Seattle did right was a product of their special teams and it's really the reason they won this game.

Michael Dickson would punt absolute belters on at least 4 or 5 occasions, and when he didn't force the Rams offense to start their drives way back, he forced Xavier Smith to attempt some really tricky catches. Early in the game Smith muffed one but was still able to keep possession and then dropping the catch at the start of the 2nd half was the beginning of a 3rd quarter cascade the Rams didn't overcome.

Arguably the most shocking stat will be the Rams rushing for 114 yards. Shocking not only because they were behind for most of the game but also had no less than 7 rushing 1st downs for the Rams.

Of all people, I think Sean McVay will be the most disappointed within the Rams organization.

Not only because of the errors on special teams but the number of times the Rams would get flags thrown on them late in the game just stalled momentum at critical junctures. Mind you, the Seahawks actually gave up more penalties, like the one on Woolen with 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter could have been a back breaker and it literally resulted in a Puka Nacua TD catch.

Overall, McVay will draw criticism for his offense being really good early and then stalling as the game went on. The Seahawks really took control of that game in that 3rd quarter and the jokes about McVay only scripting the first 15 plays are going to torment the Rams this offseason.

However, the guy that will dominate the narrative leading up to the Super Bowl, is Sam Darnold. 3 touchdowns, 346 passing yards and several of those passes were over 20 yards, even on the 3 occasions he was sacked, it didn't rattle him.

As much as this was a team victory and the Seahawks defense benefitted from great punting, the Seahawks secondary just put on the best showing of any defense all year.

Denying Stafford at the goal line with just 5 minutes remaining in the 4th was a game-winning contribution.

They were only able to sack Stafford once, so more of the load was on the backs to stay with receivers and they were awesome at it. Holding Stafford to 22-35 on pass attempts and I can't wait to watch these guys in the Super Bowl.

[defensefilms]

NFL Championship Weekend Preview

Literally only 3 games until we crown a new Super Bowl champion and I can't help but feel that I will not be happy with the eventual matchup.

I don't like being labeled as a troll, but I truly am hoping that we get a Sam Darnold-Jared Stidham Super Bowl, if only so I can watch how the media and the NFL navigate selling that to casual audiences.

I managed to go 3-1 predicting winners last week but barring some serious upsets, I should be 2-0 on Championship weekend. Without further ado, this week's Championship Weekend Preview

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

I'm trying not to let the Bo Nix injury dampen my excitement for this game.

Should the Broncos make the Super Bowl it will be because of some absolute heroics on the part of their defense and players in specialty positions on offense stepping up and playing out of their minds.

The Broncos defense needs to look at Drake Maye's performance last week and feel optimistic about opportunities to make big plays in this one. Drake Maye had 2 fumbles and an interception against the Chargers in the Divisional Round and then followed that with another 2 fumble and interception showing against Houston last weekend.

The Broncos with their elite secondary have to look to get their offense some short field and play with a lead to give themselves any chance.

One stat that makes me really nervous is the Broncos rushing averages without Bo Nix and it's even worse when you realize they'll still be without JK Dobbins as well.

That means RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin will have the bulk of the carries, they average 3.7 and 5.1 yards per carry respectively. These guys will need to take a big responsibility off of Jared Stidham and the passing game for the Broncos offense to have any chance of avoiding becoming a net negative in this game.

Speaking of Stidham, he will need to pass on some critical downs and throwing to tight ends is another way to help him. Evan Ingram averages 9.2 yards a catch and while this likely won't be a game where the Broncos receivers are featured a lot, Courtland Sutton has got to be an option in critical downs, he also has 1000 yards receiving this year.

The New England defense have been outstanding this post season. Held the Chargers to 3 points and game CJ Stroud fits in 6 turnover game. They will be very confident again about affecting the opposing quarterback. New England were ranked 6th stopping the run on defense, even with the Broncos down a few guys, they'll need to be physical in stopping the run.

New England's rushing attack has been on song all post season, 124 rushing yards against the Chargers in the Wild Card round, followed by 103 yards on the ground against Houston last week. Surely Mike Vrabel puts more of the responsibility on the Patriots running backs to curtail Maye's turnovers.

Overall, I have to pick New England to make the Super Bowl. The Bo Nix injury is too much to overcome and eventually that is what this will come down to.

Prediction: New England Patriots win 28-7

2. Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Given how good Seattle were in the regular season, it is only appropriate that the Rams be the only team that could make the bookies think twice about picking them to get to the Super Bowl.

Once again, I'm leaning on the two team's recent history and the fact that they are Divisional rivals and their two regular season meetings were decided by a total of 3 points.

Last week, Sam Darnold played a 9er defense that had seldom been able to get a beat on him in the regular season, but this is going to be different. The Rams have intercepted Darnold 6 times in the two regular season games between the two and unlike the 9ers, the Rams know that a pass rush between the guards and center is the key to affecting Darnold.

When Seattle were successful against LA in a 38-37 overtime victory, the only stat they really dominated was rushing yards, a whopping 6.8 yards per carry as a team in that one and Kenneth Walker terrorized the Rams in that game, 9.1 yards per carry individually on week 16.

Meanwhile the Rams run defense was ranked 12th stopping the run in the regular season, winning this matchup surely will swing the game for either team.

However, what I'm most worried about is Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing attack. The Rams offense has actually been one of the few offenses in the league to give the Seahawks defense problems. The Rams lost on week 16 but Stafford putting up 457 yards on the Hawks is a scary proposition.

A pattern the Seahawks need to repeat is how they managed to sack Stafford 4 times in the week 16 win but more worrying for the Rams is how they have not gotten 100 yards rushing out of Kyren Williams against the Seahawks at all this year.

Considering recent history and the very high likelihood of this game being close at the end, I have to choose the Rams and I am really hopeful that this prediction turns out to be wrong. I just feel like it's very hard to pick against Rams when they have a proven veteran quarterback who is excellent at game winning drives.

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams win 28-26

[defensefilms]

The Misalignment Defining Hugo Broos’ South African Tenure

"The other clear and obvious problem with Broos’ sentiments, is that it keeps South Africa stuck in a loop of hoping our players are discovered by Europeans scouts. The issue with this is that it’s largely a social networking game where certain prominent agents have the connections to get a player seen by clubs in Europe and to be fair it’s a game with very few real guarantees and one that has made a handful of agents in South Africa very rich"

-Sabelo Masemola via Substack

In my latest Substack post, I discuss the frustrations South Africans have with the coaching and tactical instructions of Bafana Bafana and discuss some key issues with Hugo Broos' solution to South African football.

[defensefilms]

NFL Divisional Round Review

A Divisional Round defined by heartbreak.

I don't think there was a single game that followed the script in term of how they would play out. That speaks to teams being extra well prepared this time of the year and teams taking away their oppositions strengths.

This and more in my Divisional Round reaction.

Los Angeles Rams defeated the Chicago Bears 20-17

This game was the polar opposite of the shootout and high scoring that I thought it would turn into.

I mentioned the importance of execution given how so much was riding on the performance of the QB for either team and Caleb's errors, like the pick early in the 1st quarter followed by the one with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, felt like they would be back breakers.

This execution or lack thereof, turned out to decide the game. The Rams goal line stand with less than 4 minutes left in the 4th, was precisely in line with that. Deandre Swift's attempted hurdle stuffed short of the line and then that was followed by a short pass that was almost intercepted by Omar Speights.

Caleb still managed to tie the game with one of the craziest passes in NFL history to send the game to overtime at 17-17, but overall, the Bears were not prepared to take advantage of a very conservative Rams defense.

Credit Sean McVay and the Rams defensive coordinator, Chris Shula. Staying in a 2-deep safety look is a big reason this didn't turn into the high scoring game it could have been. The Rams defense have not been great in the back half of the season, but this was by far their best game all year.

2. Seattle Seahawks defeated the San Francisco 49ers 41-6

Remember the whole thing about Divisional rivalry games being closer in scorelines and typically decided by the details? Forget about all of that because this was as one sided of a playoff game as I can possibly remember.

Brock Purdy and the 9ers really felt like they were struggling to stay above water. The playcalling was a really desperate from the beginning and it felt like the 9ers weren't willing to go through any kind of feeling out process and they wanted to make a big play right at the start of the game.

Seattle were just so imposing at every level, the run blocking was excellent, they moved the 9er d-line with ease, Kenneth Walker was an absolute tank it felt like he had nothing but open grass in front of him with every carry. The 9er defense was truly helpless defending screens.

San Francisco were undermanned on defense all season long, so it's not surprising that they didn't do much to affect Sam Darnold, who has 0 interceptions against the 9ers in 3 games this season.

All told, it's hard to see Seattle as anything other than deserving winners.

3. New England Patriot defeat Houston Texans 28-16

By far my worst pick of the weekend.

Neither team was able to play a clean game in this one as expected, but a big difference maker was in how each quarterback adjusted to the conditions and the opposition.

Drake Maye had 2 fumbles in this game but unlike Stroud and very much like last week against the Chargers, New England were able to find answers. New England's offense dominated several phases of that game, but I think a big reason they won was their defense and what they were able to do to effect CJ Stroud.

The media is having a field day with the Texans QB as they would with any QB that threw 4 interceptions in a single half. In fact, the scariest stat any Houston fan has seen in years was Stroud throwing 7 interceptions over the course of two playoff games.

Overall, if New England make the Super Bowl (and there is a strong chance that they will), this will be remembered as the game and the performance that got them there. The momentum they had at home in front of their own fans really carried over.

The Houston defense was awesome. They sacked Maye 5 times and even when New England targeted Kamari Lassiter, he managed to defend 3 of those pass attempts and held New England to 3-14 on 3rd down. The Houston defense did all they could to make plays and keep the game close, such as the near forced fumble by Tommy Togiai.

Instead, Drake Maye will be remembered as the hero of this game and really this season in New England.

4. Denver Broncos defeated the Buffalo Bills 33-30

This one is bittersweet given the news about Bo Nix's injury and that Nix will not participate any further in this post season.

It's a shame because this Bills-Broncos game, truly was the best game of the weekend and there was far more scoring than what I had anticipated.

Josh Allen 3 touchdowns and 283 yards was actually really impressive, and the Bills were also incredible on 3rd down with 10-15 for the game.

What that meant was that the Broncos defense was reeling for most of the game. Even with the 2 interceptions, one of which was the play to end the game. It never quite felt like Vance Joseph and the defense had a lock on the Bills, worse yet when Jamec Cook leads the rushing with 119 yards on the game.

I mentioned in my preview that scoring drive in late game situations were something both offenses had proven to be excellent at and it came to bear with that drive to put them in field goal territory in overtime. Bo Nix' heroics running the ball for first downs was the stuff of 30-for-30 documentary footage.

Nix lead the Broncos in rushing yards and that's a bitter sweet nuggets given what it meant for his ability to play the upcoming games but Nix was terrific in that drive that lead the Broncos to a field goal.

[defensefilms]

NFL Divisional Round Preview

I can't remember a Divisional Round where there were no easy games to pick like we have in this year's playoffs.

Some really difficult ones to pick on this weekend but the pattern this week is on the defensive side of the ball with 3 of the top defensive units of the regular season all playing against top 10 passing quarterbacks.

I managed a good 5-1 record last weekend, but I was also helped greatly by there being no upsets outside of the 49ers beating the Eagles.

Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams

Of all the games this weekend, this one probably presents the best quarterback matchup with Caleb Williams vs Matthew Stafford.

The Rams high scoring offense is averaging about 30 points per game in their last 10 games meanwhile Caleb has led the most comeback wins in the NFL this season with 7.

As an extra aside, the Rams allowed the fewest sacks in the regular season. They keep Stafford clean for the most part and they allowed only 1 sack last week against Carolina. Both the Rams and the Bears have allowed just 23 and 25 sacks respectively, so it's on the pass rush to make the difference.

A big thing that can help keep either teams offense balanced is the ability to run the football and the Bears with Deandre Swift are one of the best running teams in the league averaging 164 yard a game on the ground. Meanwhile the Rams are no slouch in this department either. Kyren Williams is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and the Rams average 126 yards rushing per game as a team.

A big thing that could swing this one is which team will be able to get the opposing offense off the field. Neither team have been prolific defending pass plays, the Rams giving up 216 yards a game and the Bears 227 yards per game.

All told, this feels like a game that will be decided by late game drives and scoring down the stretch. Both Caleb Williams and Matthew Stafford were outstanding in last week's 4th quarters but when it comes down to execution, I have to pick Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, so while I will root for Caleb, I think the Rams will win.

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams Win 34-30

2. Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Games between division rivals tend to not only be more physically intense but they also tend to come down to the fine margins given that the teams in question have already played each other this season.

In those two divisional games during the regular season, neither team managed to score more than 17 points. It's a bit of a strange one especially considering that the 9ers managed 348 yards against Seattle on week 1.

Sam Darnold has not thrown an interception in either game against the 9ers. Darnold has had another good season and the Seahawks offense has got to keep him upright against a 9er defensive line that has not featured Nick Bosa this season.

Collectively the 9ers have only managed 3 sacks on Darnold and the Seahawks O-line only gave up 27 sacks total for the regular season, so he's still the most sacked QB left in the playoffs but the 9ers patchwork D-line actually did slightly better in the second game on week 18 between the teams, managing 2 sacks.

On the other side, San Francisco quarterback, Brock Purdy is on a heater and the confidence with which he led the game winning drive against the Eagles is among the reasons the 9ers have a real advantage in making big plays. Purdy is 7th in passing yards per game during the regular season, his passing lead the 9ers to victory in week 1 and they'll need it in this one for sure.

The 9ers may be the better "big play" team but running the football will be a necessity for both teams even if it is for very different reasons. The 9ers will need CMC's rushes to keep Seattle honest, and hopefully slow down their pass rush while Seattle are far more run reliant behind Kenneth Walker's running and on week 18, the Seahawks were really dominant in their 180-yard rush performance.

But my focus will obviously be on that Seattle Seahawks defense. They haven't gotten the same recognition as the Broncos D but they have been outstanding this year.

Seattle's ability to stop the run is where it all starts, they funnel offenses into attempting passes and they held opponents to a paltry 91 yards running in the regular season. Once the opposing offense gives up on run play, it's their defensive backs who close it out and giving up just 193 passing yards per game makes their secondary a top 10 unit in the league. Purdy will be weary, the Seahawks are 5th in interceptions this season.

I'm picking Seattle to prevent this game from being a shootout that would favor the 9ers and take the win at home.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks win 23-17

3. New England Patriots vs Houston Texans

I honestly think this is a matchup New England would have rather avoided because unlike last week's matchup, this is an opponent that will be better at taking advantage of short fields.

Against the Chargers last week, the Patriots offense had to overcome 3 quarters worth of an offensive slog mostly caused by the Chargers defense.

Drake Maye will likely need a similar kind of grit and stick-to-itiveness in this game here because I think Houston's defense is relishing this matchup. This Houston defense will not be tested until they play a quarter back that can scramble and move when pressured.

Both Maye and Stroud enter this game as the QB's who took the most sacks on Wild Card weekend, so both teams will need to take a little bit of pressure off of their pass protection by running the ball. New England were a better running offense this season averaging 128.9 rushing yards per game as compared to Houston's 108 rushing yards per game, which is bottom half of the league and if last week is any indicator, they'll need their RB's to wear down this Houston front 7.

New England's defense will be all-time confident going into this one, they mad Herbet's life miserable but as good as they are at every level, they are not the Houston defense.

In the end, I believe it will come down to the Houston and the relentless pressure they will put on Drake Maye and given what their secondary was able to do against Pittsburgh last week in holding the Steelers to 140 yards passing, if they manage 4 sacks again they'll almost surely win this one. They are essentially the reason I'm picking Houston to win.

Prediction: Houston Texans win 26-23

4. Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

This here is the matchup I am most looking forward to.

The Broncos defense is chasing history with 68 total sacks for the season and the 85 Bears record just 7 more sacks away.

The problem is they are playing against Josh Allen and unlike a lot of the quarterbacks pass rushers typically are able to effect, Josh Allen has the ability to move and extend plays, which will come in handy against this record setting Denver pass rush.

The other crucial factor is that if this comes down to a close game at the end, you have 2 quarterbacks on each side that are really good at leading scoring drives at the end of the game.

Bo Nix is going up against the number 1 passing defense in the regular season holding teams to 196 yards through the air. Bo is 8th in yards per game for the regular season and Courtland Sutton is 12th in receiving yards per game so, the connection between the two yielding 17 big plays, makes you wonder whether the Broncos will try to slow it down and get more intermediate and short plays against an elite secondary.

The one area the Bills may have an advantage in is the ability to run. James Cook has been instrumental for the Bills offense, and he leads the league in rushing. Meanwhile the Broncos run the ball as a team with Marvin Mims and RJ Harvey helping Bo Nix and that will be a big part of what the Broncos do on offense.

Overall, this game will be decided in the trenches and how much the Broncos D-line is able to affect Josh Allen.

It's very important that the Broncos are at home given the positive momentum that will give the defense should they get rolling. Expect the Bills O-line to mix it up, extra linemen on some plays, a lot of the 2-tight end sets that the Bills are already fond of.

But the guy who can swing this game is Broncos defensive coordinator, Vance Joseph.

Outside of putting a spy on Allen at safety or linebacker, Joseph needs to generate pressure to force Allen to move or get sacked. Allen is really good on the move so there always needs to be a 2nd guy in pursuit when he breaks for a run.

The other trick Joseph will surely fall back on will be sending Nik Bonnito and Jonathan Cooper into coverage because the Broncos don't have much speed, I trust that the defensive-end pairing will be going out and all the way into the flats at times. That work rate on the part of the front 7 has to be key to Joseph's strategy in this one.

Denver's Week 16 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars proved the Broncos defense can dominate a game and still be stalled out by unproductive offense plus they'll still be without JK Dobbins. Hence, the Broncos

Prediction: Denver Broncos win 23-19

[defensefilms]

NFL WildCard Round Reaction

That was an incredible and at the same time, very sad, Wild Card Weekend.

I mentioned how this weekend was special because you had a lot of really good teams that were going to have to go on the road and with that meant a bunch of playoff veterans who were road favorites and needed to validate that status.

I was 5-1 picking winners on WildCard Weekend and without further ado, here's a reaction to the craziness that was the first week of the NFL playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams defeat the Carolina Panthers 34-31

For a moment, just for a moment, it's started to look like the Panther were going to overcome the odds, as home underdogs no less.

The Panthers fight back was greatly aided by how good they were in the red zone in that first half and to crawl back to make it a tied game at 17-17 in the 3rd quarter was a very positive long term sign for this Panthers organization.

This will be remembered as a game where veteran experience made all the difference and it was telling in how both these teams handled the 4th quarter.

Mathew Stafford and the Rams would manage 2 touchdowns in this closing stretch even with the Panthers putting more points on the board themselves.

Carolina were able to make it a 3-point game after a 7 play drive was ended on a short a TD pass from Bryce Young to Jared Coker to take the lead at 31-27 but the Rams response was again typical of veteran poise in big moments.

Mathew Stafford leads a 7-play drive in 2 minutes that ends with a 19 yards touchdown pass to Parkinson and compare that with the Bryce Young drive that followed.

In the end, I believe in running quarterbacks more than the passer prototype but this one was decided by poise, execution and experience.

2. Houston Texans defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6

I don't even know why this game had to be contested. I mentioned on a comment on BlueSky, that the Texans were an absolute nightmare matchup for the Steelers and I am not only vindicated, but also validated for that take.

I will not say much. This was by far the least competetive game of the weekend and even during the build-up it certainly looked lopsided.

I will say that this Houston Texans defense, is 100% the team I though they were, most of my prediction was because of what I had seen them do in the weeks leading up to this game.

it really felt like Aaron Rodgers was sacked more than 4 times but no, the rest of those are the amount of times Rodgers was pressured and it was tough watching him try to stay afloat while the young Texans defense just felt like they were everywhere in that game.

Much props to the Houston defense.

3. Buffalo Bills defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24

I have never felt more validated for going against all statistical indicators and sticking with good ol' QB bias. At some point, Josh Allen being the best QB remaining in the NFC needs to count for something.

In keeping with the theme of WildCard Weekend Josh Allen would take his team on the road and deliver a touch down to close out the game, and again contrast that with Trevor Lawrence throwing an interception on a pass attempt to Jakobi Meyers.

Now Trevor Lawrence does deserve some credit, he did play well in this game and that 4th quarter was a shootout with multiple touchdowns scored late but, in the end, it was about execution down the stretch.

4. Chicago Bears defeat the Green Bay Packers 31-27

I'm in absolute shock at the events that unfolded in that Saturday night game.

Listen, the lead that the Packers had built up to that point looked unassailable. The Bears were down 21-3 at halftime. Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson had the Packers in prime position and ready to go through to the Divisional Round.

Even as the 3rd quarter started, the Packers defense still held the Bears to a field goal, so of course it's on the Packers to win time of possession, run the football and score as the quarter is closing, but oh no!!

That 3rd quarter was a harbinger of death for Green Bay. While the defense held Caleb and the Bears to a field goal, the Packers missed many opportunities to close this game out, stalling with multiple 3-and-outs.

Then even after as the 4th quarter began it was the Bears offense finding rhythm and sustaining drives until the 3rd and 3 touchdown run by Deandre Swift to make it 21-16, so the screen pass to Mathew Golden for the last Green Bay touchdown of the game, was much needed and it did feel like a nail in the coffin and left just 6:36 on the clock.

What happened though was a magical 10 play drive by Caleb Williams, who literally tap danced before completing a 4th and 8 pass to Rome Odunze. They would finish the drive with a 8-yard pass to Olamide Zacheus to make the score 27-23 followed by a 2-point conversion caught by Colston Loveland.

Green Bay are now feeling the home crowd get a little bit more into it and the nerves are mad very evident when an 8-play drive is first stopped. Green Bay opt for a 44-yard field goal which Brandon Mcmanus would miss wide left.

That was basically the moment Green Bay lost this game. Caleb Williams had a full 3 minutes to lead a 6 play drive capped off by a TD pass to DJ Moore and Green Bay's season was over.

Green Bay's final drive of the game never felt like it would deliver a winner. At that point, any and all momentum had long since vacated the Green Bay offense and that was it.

5. New England Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3

This was the exact type of game that I didn't think New England would be able to win.

The Los Angeles Chargers got the first part of this assignment right. This was a low scoring slugfest of a game. Neither team able to manage more than a field goal until well after halftime and the Chargers defense did their part and then some to keep the score 9-3 in favor of New England at halftime.

What this game will be remembered for is Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense being stuck in the mud for four quarters.

Herbert did as well as he possibly could but there is very littler any QB can do when they're pressured 81% of the time and those injuries on the Chargers o-line really ruined any chance they could have had to compete in this game.

Even after the fumble that gave the Chargers incredible field position deep inside the redzone, LA were no able to take advantage and while both teams struggles offensively it was Drake Maye that was able to come in to the game more and more with the support of the Pats rushing attack.

I was not sold on Drake Maye but I will give him and the Patriots credit for winning this one.

6. San Francisco 49ers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 23-19

The part about this that hurts, is that not only did the Eagles lose to the 9ers (whom I hate), but the fact that Philly were at home, and for most of the game they lead.

I mentioned how one of the themes of this weekend was veteran quarterback showing poise while going on the road, and while Purdy may not be as seasoned as Stafford, he certainly did show poise.

However that's not what anyone should be talking about.

Understand me clearly, the 9ers won the game and they are through to the next round but the Philadelphia Eagles beat themselves in that game.

And the first person that contributed to the Eagles tripping themselves up, was the offensive coordinator and the head coach. They both have collectively cratered the explosiveness, the creativity, the rhythm and physicality that were had on offense last year.

And then there was the wide receivers.

AJ Brown, chose to be the guys that speaks up about the Eagles offensive issues and then what does he do in the first game of the post season? Drop 3 pass attempts, all of which hit him in his hands.

Now granted, Vic Fangio and the defense were not good, but they held a high scoring 9er offense to 23 points. The Eagles offense didn't score a single point in the 2nd half. A pattern repeating itself from the regulars season losses to Dallas, Chicago and the LA Chargers.

I don't think you understand how much it hurts me when the 9ers and all the Colin Kaepernick haters in that fan base are able to win big games against Jalen Hurts.

Okay, I'm done.

[defensefilms]

NFL WildCard Round Preview

In continuing my yearly tradition, we're previewing this week's NFL Wild card and there is more than a little intrigue to go around this year as we have some really prominent teams that are going on the road, while some of the higher seeded teams have less experience and a more youthful bounce.

So here we go, a quick preview of all the games on Wild Card weekend in order of how excited I am for each one.

Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams

Carolina have been among the best rushing offenses in the league and it's a big reason they were able to stay alive for a playoff run. 122 rushing yards per game with just 9 rushing TD's per game may not seem like a lot but the key stat is that they have only committed 3 fumbles all season.

Key to Carolina's running game is Rico Dowdle who is their rushing leader and in the passing game, the emergence of Tetairoa McMillan with 7 touchdowns has given this team a 2nd dimension to compliment a young quarterback that clearly want to make big plays.

However, they are not the only offensive weapons ready to put on a show in this game, Rams receiver Puka Nacua has put his name among the top wideouts in the league and that's problematic for Carolina who are the 31st ranked 3rd down defense in the NFL.

The other big concern for me, is the Rams defense. They started the season looking like a top unit in the NFC but since then they've played some overtime thrillers against division rivals and those losses really hurt them.

Defending the passing attack has been particularly problematic for LA. Currently the Rams pass defense ranks bottom half of the league but the x-factor in this game, is that these teams are not playing for the first time this season. Carolina beat this same Rams team 31-28 in week 13 but I think this will be a far lower scoring game.

I'm picking veteran experience and know how to go on the road and win, ultimately stay alive to the next round.

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams win 23-14

2. Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

CJ Stroud and Aaron Rodgers are going to get most of the attention in the build-up but the star of the show is that Houston defense. They are Bonafide game wreckers.

Houston is on one of the longest active winning streaks in the league coming into this one and CJ Stroud's return form injury in week 13 and they've ripped a 9-game winning streak since.

It truly is a new day in Houston because Stroud has only been sacked 31 times this season and that puts Houston in the top 10 in terms of offensive line, and I can't remember Houston ever having an O-line that was as reliable as this one.

That Houston o-line is going to matter, especially considering that this Steelers front 7 is still among the more notable pass rushes in the league even if they have underachieved a little this season and they are still very capable of stopping Woody Marks and Nick Chubb, but their pass defense is giving up 243 yards a game, bad enough to be in the bottom 5 in the league.

Aaron Rodgers is averaging 207 passing yards per game, and they rush for just 103 yards a game. That is going to put the onus on the Steelers to make this a low scoring game but there will be a time when the Steelers offense has to make good on points and not field goals.

Prediction: Houston Texans win 32-17

3. Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

Arguably the hardest game in term of picking a winner.

Josh Allen and the Bills have had a rocky season but even with that, they've still been able to rely on the rock-solid running of James Cook and he is going to be the most important part of the Bills offense in this one because the Jags run defense has been prolific this season. They only allow 85 rushing yards per game, which I'm pretty sure is a record of some kind.

In contrast, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are finally fulfilling their promise in 2025 under new head coach, Liam Coen. Lawrence and the Jags passing game averages 222 yards per game.

Among the big reasons for the Bills issues, is how they struggled to stop the run allowing 136 rushing yards per game. Jags running backs Travis Etienne and Bhaysul Tuten will relish opportunities to tote the rock even if stats have them averaging a bottom 10 115 yards per game.

The Bills secondary is number 1 in the NFL and they hold opposing receivers to 156 yards per game. That's going to matter when you consider how well Trevor Lawrence has played this season.

My general rule of thumb is that I don't bet against elite quarterbacks and for the most part I'm going to stick with that, even though every major stat favors Jacksonville.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills win 31-28

4. Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

The 2025 Chicago Bear are a complete and polar opposite of the great Bears teams of years past.

Gone are the days of hard-nosed defenses and Walter Payton-like running on the other side. No, this Bears team can drop 40 points in a shootout and a lot of that is about Caleb Williams finally finding his groove as an NFL quarterback.

Williams is 8th in total passing yards and while 57% completion is not the most accurate among quarterbacks this year, it is a sign that they are trusting Caleb to sling the rock despite what the analytics might suggest about his accuracy.

With that contrast comes a Bears defense that is not as stout. The Bears week 17 loss in overtime to the 49ers definitely showed that this defense will give up big plays to quarterbacks that can scramble.

If the Packers are going to have any chance, it will be because of what their offense is able to do.

The Packers defense is still a very good unit despite some of the lulls during the season and they are still ranked 12th in the NFL and are also Green Bay's best chance at overturning the odds here, although Caleb has only been sacked 24 times this year. `Should Green Bay actually succeed in sacking Caleb, we could be in for a playoff upset.

Prediction: Chicago Bears win 24-23

5. New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Patriots are way ahead of schedule with their development of Drake Maye. That's been the theme of their season so far and it's a trajectory that has seen Maye become one of two frontrunners for this season's MVP award.

The only quarterback that has been sacked more times than Drake May at 47 is Cam Ward and some of that has to be a product of how aggressive the Pats offense is at going down field, which needs Maye to stand in the pocket for longer.

Defensively, New England have been really good. Allowing 304 passing yards per game is still above league average and they hold teams to about 300 yards of total offense per game as the 5th best defense in the league. Meanwhile the Chargers is 2nd best in the league at defending passes and they are the number 2 ranked defense holding opponents to 285 yards total offense per game.

Those types of defensive rankings for both teams speaks to this being a much lower scoring game than what the Patriots would prefer.

On the flipside, Justin Herbert has the Chargers passing game averaging 212 yards per game with Ladd McConkey as their top receiver, but Vidal's rushing has led this team with Omarion Hampton injured and if the Chargers are going to win a low scoring game, Vidal will need a big time showing.

My biggest hang-up with the Patriots is the strength/quality of the teams they've played up to now. If it comes down to a low scoring game with very few big plays, this might turn out to be a bad pick. I'll root for the Chargers but officially, I'm picking New England.

Prediction: New England Patriots win 24-21

6. Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers

This is a rivalry game between two teams that have mostly been the leaders of the NFC in recent years and it's also the game I'm most excited about this weekend.

The 9ers have had the worst injury luck of any team this season and most of those injuries have been on the defensive side. Brock Purdy has only played in 9 games this season, but he has 20 touchdowns and his ability to scramble something the Eagles defense will only be able to prepare so much for.

Speaking of which Philly's defense under Vic Fangio has been outstanding this season and they are the biggest reason the Eagles have been able to win all these low scoring games this season. Philly's defensive line is a problem for opposition on most weeks but they will especially relish testing the 9ers o-line who have only allowed 27 sacks on both their starting QB's collectively this year.

For the 9ers, a big point of emphasis, is going to be stopping the Eagles offense and forcing them to repeat the pattern of tough scoring halves. The Eagles offense has repeatedly sputtered and while their defense has been able to hold oppositions when this happens, the 9ers will hope they can handle Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts running attack even with as bad as their injury situation is.

All told, the underdog 9ers have one clear mandate and that's to score points and take a multiple score lead. If that happens and the 9ers find themselves with a 10 point lead or more, they'll turn all the odds makers on their heads.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles win 24-20

[defensefilms]

Lamar Jackson and the Modern Limits of Coaching Authority

How modern quarterback power quietly redraws the boundaries of leadership in professional football.

"When Ozzie Newsome retired as General Manager of the Baltimore Ravens in 2018, it was clear wide sweeping changes were afoot. What Ozzie built was a staunch culture defined by grit and professionalism. In 2025, Ravens General Manager, Eric DeCosta is a man in the middle of what appears to be a tense cold-war between his head coach and star quarterback, and the unfolding story of how an institution wrestles with how much they empower their star player"

-Sabelo Masemola via Substack

[defensefilms]

Bafana Bafana begin their AFCON campaign tonight against Angola and this graphic should put some motivation in the hearts of South Africans who are not aware of how good Bafana have been in the last 2 years.

Good luck to our boys.

[defensefilms]

"LEGENDS IN MOTION"

South Africa's Bafana Bafana begin their campaign at the 2025 African Cup Of Nations tomorrow night and before the highs of the last 2 years, I wanted to commemorate how our team got here.

[defensefilms]

The Value Of A TimeOut When Shooting Sports

Some Notes On My Time As A Sports Photographer And Videographer

"As a photographic genre, I tend to find sports photography is the most understood. Like the idea of good sports photography and video clips seems easy enough, but a lack of know-how truly separates good photos from great ones. People may be generally aware that you have to have timing but there is something more to be said about awareness in sports photography"

Read more on Substack

[defensefilms]

Structure Over Spectacle: The Denver Broncos’ Defensive Turn

Why the Denver Broncos Are Winning on Defense

"All together in 2025, as of writing this article, the Broncos currently lead the NFL with 55 total sacks as a team. The record is still held by the 1985 Chicago Bears with 72.

The production of the defense is carrying the momentum of this season which has the 10-2 Denver Broncos looking at a date with destiny in the playoffs and this defense is also very aware that they have an opportunity to make history.

You see it in the intensity of their defensive front, passing the ball down the field turns into a bad idea for the opponent when they play against these guys.

Comparisons to the Super Bowl winning “No Fly Zone” defense are warranted but it’s not a straight 1-to-1 comparison either because defensive coordinator, Vance Joseph has used the talent at his disposal to truly add wrinkles to this defense"

-Read more by Sabelo Masemola On Substack

[defensefilms]

Defense Keeps the Season Alive, Offense Tests the City’s Faith

Philly Nervous, Defense Certain: The Story of the 2025 Eagles

Sometimes, the mood and the vibes inside of a team matter more than the win-loss record.

In 2024, the Philadelphia Eagles were a marvel for their style of play and how they broke the conventions of the sport with running football and a quarterback that was absolutely unique to how he complimented thier collective physicallity.

In 2025, the Eagles are not the same team and in the build-up to the Charger-Eagles Monday Night Football game, I wrote a post describing the mood, vibes and dynamics behind the most interesting team in the NFL.

Click here to read on my SUBSTACK

[defensefilms]

A Collection Of All My Springboks And South African Sports Posts in 2025

One of my goals this year was to have much more South African content on my blogs and with the end of the Springboks rugby calendar, I wanted to catalogue, the list of posts/articles and entries related to the Springboks, South African sports and as always, mixed with a bit of the edge I like to add to these things.

Click the title of each entry to read the post/article.

Racial Quotas And The State Of South African Sports via Tumblr

2. How Zealand Changed South African History In 1981 via The Medium

3. The Politics Of Siya Kolisi via Substack

4. Grit, Identity and The Springboks in 2025 via Substack

Bonus Entries: All via Tumblr

Dricus Du Plessis And His Support For Donald Trump

2. Why Du Plessis Supporting Trump Is Not Radical

3. How South Africans Felt About Khamzat Defeating Dricus Du Plessis

[defensefilms]

Grit, Identity and The 2025 Springboks

Grit, Identity and The 2025 Springboks

Because Might Is Right.........

"There is a cinematic element to watching these Springboks.

Yes, there is the high drama of close game finishes that have come to exemplify this team in recent years, but there is also the sheer dedication to violence"

READ MORE HERE Or Click the post above