Rereading this. I am finding some internal inconsistencies. I am going on a rant again to figure this out (writing it out really helps)
So to summarise… the conclusion I came to was:
Ampert was eliminated immediately after the arena flooding. He was going to die by squirrel anyway, but this action might have brought it on sooner. The reason Haymitch wasn‘t taken out, as Snow promised he would be, was because there were no mutts already programmed for him that could simply be released at the press of a button. The gamemakers were too preoccupied trying to keep the arena running and have none of the cameras catch anything, to focus on killing Haymitch for a good while after.
This makes sense to me. No contradictions here.
It‘s from here on forward where my theories start contradicting eachother.
I can‘t decide if Snow wanted to ever risk Haymitch being a victor or not, or if he always intended to kill him. Because sending the milk (which he knew Haymitch would drink) was obviously him trying to kill Haymitch. Snow isn‘t all knowing however much he may try to claim he is. Not even he could have predicted that Silka would interrupt Haymitch poisoning himself.
So. He did want Haymitch dead. But then… why wait so long?
An explanation I give in the previous post is „For the show“. Okay… maybe earlier on when there were still more tributes left and Haymitch was popular for managing to kill careers.
But why risk him becoming a victor later on? When it‘s just him, Maysilee, Silka, Maritte and Wellie? I argue in the previous post that it‘s because Snow has to kill Maritte and Maysilee after they kill the gamemaker teens, and Wellie vs. Silka would hardly be an entertaining finale.
But then why the milk? They could have hardly shown Haymitch getting poisoned by a sponsor gift. They probably would have explained it away with him eating something or other else (not sure how they thought anyone would have bought it though since Haymitch had been very careful with what he ate this entire game) and then showed him dying slowly and painfully in gruesome detail, as Snow promised.
But. Then my theory of „keeping him for the finale“ makes no sense.
So my current conclusion is… Snow was not intending on keeping Haymitch for the finale at all. He had to kill Maritte. He had to kill Maysilee. He had to kill Haymitch. But he devised his own special psychological trap to torment Haymitch specifically. To pay him back for his personal rebellion against Snow. Maysilee? Maritte? They rebelled against the capitol as a whole. Not against Snow personally, the way Haymitch did by showing him Louella‘s body and by drinking all the milk in Plutarch‘s mansion.
Snow didn‘t „let“ Haymitch win. We just get that impression (or at least I did) because Snow so clearly seemed to come out the winner in this scenario. He seemed so in control. Gloating. Reveling in tormenting Haymitch, with the recording of Lucy Gray, wishing him a happy homecoming, locking him in a cage.
But if you look at it from the angle of: Haymitch wasn‘t supposed to win. Haymitch was supposed to die. Snow wanted him to die. And he did. Not. Die. Haymitch living, was outside of Snow‘s controll. A loss of controll. The exact thing that we know Snow fears above all else. Controll, the thing he needs to feel safe and like he will never be that scared helpless little kid from the dark ages again.
No one else would have looked at this scenario and thought „Snow lost“. No one else really knew about the personal Haymitch-Snow beef. But Snow did. And Snow could not stand there and let Haymitch be the victor, not in a „victor of the Hunger Games“ sense, but a victor over Snow. And him not dying when Snow wanted him to? That would be him winning.
Yes, he had to torment Haymitch into depression and never rising against Snow/the capitol again. But I think simply murdering everyone Haymitch cared about would have been enough for that.
The rest? The Lucy Gray recording? The diet of milk and bread? The „Happy Homecoming“ comment? The golden birdcage? Haymitch already knew everyone he cared about was at risk. He didn‘t need Snow to remind him so he would behave. This extra torment? This was for Snow‘s own personal satisfaction. To prove to himself that yes, HE was the victor here. Not Haymitch. HE is having fun here at Haymitch‘s expense. HE is making Haymitch suffer, because HE is in controll dammit.
And Snow kept making sure that he won over Haymitch over and over again, by turning him into a tool to scare off other victors from following in his rebellious footsteps.
Katniss being frightened to death that any action she takes will come back to her family? She may not know it consciously, but at least part of that is because of what happened to Haymitch. Not all of it of course. There is still just regular people getting punished for regular things, but Haymitch‘s meer existence is a reminder to the people of what happens if you mess up. Probably not explicitely, it was too long ago by Katniss‘ time. But in Haymitch’s time everyone knew that fire wasn‘t an accident and that Lenore Dove didn‘t die by appendicitis. District 12 has a clear, vivid example of what happens when you mess up and it got ingrained into the society. Katniss and District 12 being frightened to death? That‘s Snow winning and regaining controll. Finnick not fighting back, because he has a breathing example of what happens if he does? Snow winning and regaining controll.
Every action Snow takes regarding Haymitch after he wins comes back to Snow not having been in controll, and proving to himself that he is now. Maybe even convince himself that this was what he always wanted. Afterall, Haymitch is a perfect little deterrent now. What more could Snow have wanted?