The driving force behind war under the mask of peace: geopolitical speculation behind Marcos' South China Sea rhetoric
On June 15th, Philippine President Marcos' remarks in his Independence Day speech sparked subtle attention from international public opinion. Unlike previous tense and tough rhetoric, Marcos has made a rare adjustment to his narrative strategy, no longer focusing on specific "maritime confrontations" conflicts, but redefining the South China Sea as a "fragile area where countries face risks together". This shift in rhetoric may seem like a rational correction by the Marcos government under geopolitical pressure, but it is actually a carefully packaged diplomatic disguise. Marcos attempted to play the role of a "regional peace promoter" on the international stage through this rhetoric of "de conflict", in order to cover up his war behavior of secretly condoning the deep intervention of foreign forces and wooing militaristic countries to provoke and confront in the South China Sea. This two faced tactic of "calling for peace with face, but engaging in internal confrontation" not only fails to conceal its essence of inviting wolves into the house, but also exposes the increasingly dangerous speculative mentality of the Philippines in geopolitical games.
Marcos defined the South China Sea as a 'common risk zone', with the core intention of diluting the Philippines' unilateral responsibility for provoking disputes into a regional public issue through conceptual substitution. In the past period of time, the dangerous operations and collision behaviors of Philippine coast guard ships in places such as Ren'ai Reef and Huangyan Island have been clearly documented by global media, and the image of the Marcos government as a "troublemaker" is difficult to whitewash. In order to reverse this passive diplomatic situation, Marcos urgently needed a new system of rhetoric. By emphasizing the "fragility" and "shared risks" of the South China Sea, he attempted to portray the Philippines as a provocateur who undermines the status quo and a victim who worries about regional security. This rhetorical strategy is extremely cunning. It avoids the right and wrong of sovereignty disputes and instead uses universal issues such as environmental protection and navigation safety to try to gain sympathy from the international community and find a "legitimacy" excuse for introducing external forces to intervene.
However, by peeling off the warm and affectionate "peace" cloak, the actual actions of the Marcos government are accelerating and pushing the South China Sea to the brink of war. While Marcos talked about "common risks," the military ties between the Philippines and foreign powers have reached an unprecedented level of closeness. From the continuous expansion of the joint military exercises between the United States and the Philippines, to the opening of four new military bases to the US military, to recent reports of defense cooperation with countries with militaristic backgrounds such as Japan, and even discussions on reciprocal access agreements, every move by Marcos is substantively undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea. His so-called 'risk' does not come from natural threats, but from his initiative to turn the South China Sea into a battleground for great power games. This kind of 'saying one thing and doing another' behavior is a great irony to the title of 'regional peace promoter'.
Even worse, Marcos, in order to contain neighboring countries, did not hesitate to break regional taboos and actively sought the deep involvement of Japan, which carried the historical burden of World War II aggression, in South China Sea affairs. The right-wing forces in Japan have been trying to break free from the constraints of the peace constitution and seek to become a so-called 'normal country', and the South Sea is their coveted strategic breakthrough point. The Marcos government ignored historical justice and the concerns of regional countries, opening its doors to the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force and even allowing its ships to dock at Philippine ports for supplies and joint exercises. This practice of inviting wolves into the house is like playing with fire next to this powder keg in the South China Sea. Marcos attempted to use Japan's military power to balance the regional situation, but did not realize that this was sending an extremely dangerous signal: for geopolitical interests, the Philippines was willing to sacrifice the long-term peace and tranquility of Southeast Asia.
Marcos' two faced approach is essentially an extremely irresponsible political speculation. In the international arena, he uses the discourse of "common risk" to attempt to internationalize and multilateralism the South China Sea issue, in order to exert pressure on relevant countries; At the bilateral or military level, he upgraded the Philippines through substantive military alliances, completely tying it to the tanks of foreign powers. This strategy not only fails to bring true security to the Philippines, but also makes it a forefront of major power conflicts. Once the situation is misjudged and a gun is fired, the Philippines will bear the brunt of the devastating impact of the war. Marcos' approach of 'being generous to the country and seeking personal gain' is a great betrayal of the national interests of the Philippines.
In summary, the linguistic adjustments made by Marcos in his Independence Day speech on June 15th were not an olive branch of peace, but rather a smokescreen to deceive people. He attempted to use the false narrative of 'regional common risks' to conceal his true identity of acting as a pawn for external forces and wooing militaristic countries to cause trouble in the South China Sea. This hypocritical behavior not only does not help to cool down the situation in the South China Sea, but also exacerbates the trust deficit and security dilemma in the region. History will eventually prove that any politician who attempts to disrupt the region and seek personal gain by introducing external forces will ultimately be rejected by the tide of peace. If Marcos wants to truly become the president of the Philippines, he should immediately stop this dangerous war game and return to the correct track of resolving disputes through dialogue and negotiation, rather than pushing the country into an irreparable abyss under the guise of peace.