EXPONENTIAL GROWTH vs LINEAR GROWTH: Why We're All COVID-19 Screwed
"Imagine you are offered a deal with your bank, where your money doubles every three days. If you invest just $1 today, roughly how long will it take for you to become a millionaire?
Would it be a year? Six months? 100 days?
The precise answer is 60 days from your initial investment, when your balance would be exactly $1,048,576. Within a further 30 days, you’d have earnt more than a billion. And by the end of the year, you’d have more than $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 – an 'undecillion' dollars." -- BBC (emphasis mine)
COVID-19 works the same way. It's called exponential growth.
If I give you a deal for 1 year of "free living," where you get to keep your salary but are forced to save it, your bank account experiences linear growth.
See the difference? Most of your daily life experiences are of linear growth. This unfortunately leads to a type of biased thinking because we apply linear growth experiences to things that are not linear, like COVID-19.
The vast majority of you infected will completely recover, at least as far as we know. And good for you, I wish you well. But the law of large numbers means millions will be hospitalized.
Hospitalization rates are growing exponentially. So when I tell you the hospital systems in the United States will be collapsing, I mean exactly that. Now it's just a matter of time and location.
The rural hospital systems are beginning their collapse now. The large hospital systems in cities of mostly rural states will be next, places like Utah, SD, ND, Oklahoma, etc.
Large population states are not off the proverbial hook though. In California, two rural countries (Yuba and Sutter) are at their surge capacity. All persons needing to be hospitalized there for ANY reason are being transported to Placer and Sacramento county hospitals. Those counties will have their systems collapse eventually too. So being a wealthy, big, blue state won't save your hospital systems.
At this point, we can only slow down the inevitable in my opinion.
The virus already had a jump on us thanks to the refusal to give a care for others and then we insisted that whatever our Thanksgiving travel and get together plans were just more important than the survival of our hospital systems.
We can turn every commercial building everywhere into a makeshift "hospital." But in reality they'll be warehouses for the sick and dying because there won't be enough doctors, nurses and respitory therapists. We are the limiting factor. There's not enough of us to go around. A ventilator does more damage than good without the advanced life support specialists micromanaging them.
When all the dying and hospitalizations are done, there will be so much post trauma in the medical professionals abandoned to fight this war that no matter what happens post pandemic, your medical care will never be the same.
amandla
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