bliss lane
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we're not kids anymore.
Origami Around
oozey mess
blake kathryn
Xuebing Du
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taylor price
#extradirty
Today's Document
EXPECTATIONS
Misplaced Lens Cap
Not today Justin
let's talk about Bridgerton tea, my ask is open
2025 on Tumblr: Trends That Defined the Year
Show & Tell
he wasn't even looking at me and he found me
Jules of Nature
The Stonewall Inn
seen from Netherlands
seen from United States
seen from United States
seen from Germany
seen from Bangladesh
seen from France
seen from Canada
seen from Canada
seen from Malaysia
seen from United States
seen from United States
seen from Ireland
seen from Indonesia
seen from Albania
seen from China
seen from Colombia
seen from Malaysia
seen from France
seen from Bangladesh
seen from Bangladesh
@econtheoryandpractice-blog
“Superb analysis is useless unless the decision process gives it a fair hearing. [...]
Improving strategic decision making therefore requires not only trying to limit our own (and others’) biases but also orchestrating a decision-making process that will confront different biases and limit their impact. “
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-case-for-behavioral-strategy
Macroeconomics is the part of the subject in which everything you learned in school is wrong
Nicholas Kaldor
“The fact that professional economists never agree is sufficient proof that theirs is no true science, and this explains the existence of amateur economists” ( Bjoerndal 1935 , New York Times)
“ The ephemeral nature of macroeconomic models is, I feel, an essential problem with the subject matter. Macroeconomics seeks simple ways of thinking about highly complex phenomena that cannot really be taken apart and studied in a systematic way. The models will always be being discarded and reformulated for that reason, as economic events make it seem urgent to change the assumptions of the models to reflect elementary reality. “ (Robert J. Schiller)
The Global Crisis provoked some to ask, “what’s the use of economics”?, a reference to the economics that most economists had studied in college. We’d pile on, adding, “what’s the use of econometrics… at least as currently taught”? Most of the undergraduates who major in economics take a course in econometrics. This course should be one of the more useful experiences a student can have. For decades, economics undergraduates have found jobs in sectors that make heavy use of quantitative skills.
Policy statement aims to halt missteps in the quest for certainty.
MPC on the migrant crisis is aimed at providing a mixed audience comprised of the media, policy-makers, migration stakeholders, and the academic community.
Interesting infographics!
About the miserable life of PhDs
“just focus on your classes, get good grades. She will eventually meet someone and dump you. If not, you will get nervous at some point and dump her.
Than, at the end of your PhD, fight to get a job in a medium ranked school in the middle of nowhere.Get the job, and then fight for tenure.
Work hard.
Stay single most of the time. Waste great opportunities by focusing on choosing the best subscript for some greek letter.Get tenure.
Take a breath. Look back at your life.
Cry.”
found on econjobrumors
A little bit of honesty
Noah Smith discusses the Euler equation based on his thought’s on Eichenbaum’s paper: “Maybe it's just the case that the economy doesn't make consumption decisions the way the Euler Equation says it does, and no funky preferences will fix the problem.”
“I've often thought that macroeconomists should be more careful about checking their "intermediate results". In other words, macro theorists tend to make a bunch of assumptions, throw a bunch of equations into a model, see what comes out at the end, and then (loosely) compare those final results to the data. But usually, those equations lead to smaller-scale "intermediate results" that can be tested directly. This Euler Equation is an example. I say, test the parts, not just the whole. Why not?”
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.it/2014/01/the-equation-at-core-of-modern-macro.html
Follow-up: http://bruegel.org/2014/02/blogs-review-getting-rid-of-the-euler-equation/
A quick but comprehensive definiton of the Euler equation: http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2008_E000287
On interest and consumption: is the causality reversed?
If the Euler equation is not verified in the real world, as various papers claim (see http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.it/2014/01/the-equation-at-core-of-modern-macro.html), as consumption is shown to be actually high when interest rates are high, I think we should give some thought to the below observation:
“Why am I not surprised that people don't really make consumption decisions based on prevailing interest rates (which the vast majority don't understand and probably do not have meaningful confidence in their ability to forecast). It seems to me (an amateur and novice at best), that it should not be particularly surprising that consumption - a driver of strong growth - would correlate with higher interest rates - an indicator that there has been strong growth (relative to levels that would not create inflation concerns and thus higher rates).” (Adam, comment on the abovementioned post)
The equilibrium assumption, which is blatantly wrong, is indeed the deepest problem. Nobody believes in equilibrium. Everybody's expecting change around the corner... though people have wildly different predictions.
Nathanael, comment on Noah Smith’s post
In 2012, remittances from migrant workers to developing countries were roughly three times the total amount of global foreign aid, yet little is known about how to make these funds work better.12 Researchers in this study explored this in two ways: First, they introduced a financial product that enabled migrant workers to pay schools in the Philippines directly for their children’s or other relatives’ education. Second, they tested if giving migrants different degrees of control over how remittances are used for educational purposes made them more likely to send money home. Simply labeling remittances as funds to be used for education raised the amount of money migrants sent home substantially—by more than 15 percent—while adding the ability to directly pay the school only added a further 2.2 percent.
How to get banks to put their money to work.
Imagine a bank that pays negative interest. Depositors are actually charged to keep their money in an account. Crazy as it sounds, several of Europe’s central banks have cut key interest rates below zero and kept them there for more than a year. Now Japan is trying it, too. For some, it’s a bid to reinvigorate an economy with other options exhausted. Others want to push foreigners to move their money somewhere else. Either way, it’s an unorthodox choice that has distorted financial markets and triggered warnings that the strategy could backfire. If negative interest rates work, however, they may mark the start of a new era for the world’s central banks.
How long is too long? (questionnaire edition)
Today I am helping a friend designing a questionnaire to investigate youngsters’ alcohol and drugs habits.
IMHO, the key-words in questionnaire design are: targeting, length, writing style, logic&structure, incentive, anonymity, method of administration.
And of course, make sure to pre-test the questionnaire as much as possible before sending it out. Some good tips are togenerate interest from the respondent by including interesting questions, information on your research and contact details (but that depends on the audiece, it may be actually detrimental if you’re sending it to young people or interviewing random people in the streets).
Some useful links on questionnaire design:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/blog/2011/02/14/survey_completion_times/
http://library.bcu.ac.uk/learner/writingguides/1.05.htm
http://www.qualtrics.com/university/researchsuite/research-resources/survey-basics/questionnaire-sequence-flow-and-style/
http://www.qualtrics.com/blog/top-10-survey-pitfalls/
A little something from 2014, but still interesting: http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/parsing-challenges-measuring-poverty-and-shared-prosperity
“The devil in global poverty analysis is in the details”
“If we are to be rigorous and honest about our calculations and our responsibility to measure the twin goals as accurately as we possibly can, we need to noisily campaign for stronger data systems at the country level as well as for more frequent collection.”
P.S. Bonus Worst Advisor: The Greybeard/Curmudgeon/Emeritus: Never, ever have an emeritus as your advisor. Emeritii are old. They made their reputations in decades past. They made have been highly successul and powerful. But that was in the past. Now they are old. Their peers are old, their connections are old, their publications are old, and most likely their theoretical foundations are old. You, my reader, are about the future. The Emeritus is about the past. Do NOT be seduced by their corduroy patches, and their leisurely gait, and their home-brewed beer, and the endless, endless hours they have to spare for you. Stay clear, keep a wide berth.
http://theprofessorisin.com/2014/02/23/the-5-top-traits-of-the-worst-advisors/