Some interesting (and very encouraging) numbers from the midterm elections
The numbers I’m posting are derived from two articles. One is entitled, “Trump’s Base Isn’t Enough,” which was published on November 20 by FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver). Here’s the link. The other is entitled, “Midterms Saw Historic Turnout by Young Voters,” which was published on November 8 by RealClear Politics. Here’s the link to that article.
Here are those numbers:
Turnout is currently estimated at 116 million voters, or 49.4 percent of the voting-eligible population. That’s an astounding number; only 83 million people voted in 2014, by contrast.
According to CIRCLE at the Tufts University Tisch College, approximately 31 percent of youth (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2018 midterms, an extraordinary increase over the CIRCLE estimate in 2014 and the highest rate of turnout in at least 25 years. In 2014, IOP estimates that approximately 10.8 million young Americans voted (Democrats preferred, 54 percent-43 percent), compared to 14.7 million in 2018 (Democrats preferred, 67 percent-32 percent). The actual number of Republican votes cast by those under age 30 remained stable from 2014 to 2018, while nearly all of the nearly 4 million increase in turnout came from those supporting Democrats.
Voters under 30 (estimated share of 13 percent of electorate) were credited by NBC News analysts as one of the key groups that led to a Democratic takeover of the House, along with African-Americans (estimated share of 11 percent), Hispanic/Latino Americans (share 11 percent), and those with no religious preference (17 percent).
Exit polls have indicated that voters under 30 preferred Democrats by a +31-percentage point margin.
Republicans lost among swing voters: Independent voters went for Democrats by a 12-point margin, and voters who voted for a third-party candidate in 2016 went to Democrats by 13 points.
Age now accounts for one of the most significant divides in America; 35 percent of the electorate was estimated to be younger than 45 years old and they preferred Democrats, 61 to 36 percent (+25); among those 45 and older, Republicans were preferred by one percentage point.
Women preferred Democrats by +19, men preferred Republicans by +4.
Among white voters, Republicans were preferred by +10, while blacks (+81), Hispanics (+41), and Asians (+54) preferred Democrats.
College graduates preferred Democrats by +13, while those without a college degree split evenly.
White men preferred Republicans by +21, white women split evenly, 49 to 49 percent.
