Seven million is a crowd
Space on the island is getting tight. Singaporeans fear that foreigners are taking up too much of it
[…]The population, of about 5.5m now, has doubled in the past 30 years and is still expanding. In 2013 a government white paper forecast that it would increase to 5.8m-6m by 2020 and 6.5m-6.9m by 2030.
This, however, assumed that Singapore would continue to take in large numbers of immigrants.
[…] By 2030 the population of long-staying “permanent residents” would climb from about 500,000 now to around 600,000, and the number of “non-resident” foreign workers would increase from the present 1.6m to 2.3m-2.5m, covering both the low-paid migrant workers who dominate the building industry, for example, and high-paid Western “expats”.
These projections have caused alarm. Already, probably more than half the people living in Singapore were not born there. That proportion seems likely to rise. Singapore has always been an immigrant society, quick to assimilate newcomers. But that openness and tolerance has frayed as some Singaporeans have felt crowded out, and foreigners are blamed for pushing up property prices and holding down wages.The government argued the proposed levels of immigration would be necessary to maintain even moderate growth because Singaporeans are not reproducing themselves. Last year the “total fertility rate” (TFR), a notional estimate of the number of babies a woman will have over her lifetime, was 1.25, way below the replacement rate of about 2.1. Singapore is tumbling off a demographic cliff. From 2020 the number of working-age Singaporeans will decline, and by 2030 there will be only 2.1 workers for every citizen over the age of 64, compared with 6 last year.
[…]
For such a persuasive government, the failure of the campaign to raise fertility suggests a lack of will. It has tried to make parenthood more attractive by offering “baby bonuses” and improved maternity and paternity leave, but if the aversion to babies has its roots in the economic cost of parenthood, maybe it is being sustained by an ideological opposition to increasing state support for child-rearing and by the psychological effects of living on a small, increasingly crowded island. Whatever its cause, it has presented the government with one of its biggest political challenges: high immigration. This has become a source of great discontent, but there is no plan B.