garbage

hey! im rachel, your local dumb gremlin.

[p-locally]

Some pictures I made with paint in 0.7 seconds to try to explain differential geometry to an unsuspecting friend (who hasn't touched any math since highschool)

[nostalgebraist]

hey is GPT like, a markov chain thing?

What do you mean by that?

Like, formally the answer is “no,” because it can look at all previous tokens in the window while predicting the next token.

Although you can trollishly reformulate anything as a Markov chain if you let its “current state” include a copy of its entire history.  This is clearly not always appropriate or else it would render the phrase “Markov chain” useless, but it might be conceptually appropriate in the case of GPT, since GPT has a “window” of fixed size.  You can think of its state at any point as the entire window, which has a fixed size (1024 or 2048 tokens), with some of it usually empty.

But I’m not sure that answers your question...

[weirdlandtv]

A 500-pound stained glass crab sculpture at BWI Marshall Airport, Maryland.

[mathgirl]

Do you think, in the whole history of Minecraft, any two players have ever generated the same random seed and therefore started on the exact same world, just by chance?

I thought about this while watching random seed minecraft speedrun attempts, where runners will constantly generate new worlds and try to beat the game in a random new world each time. I'm going to investigate the probability, but it would involve a guess about just how many new worlds are randomly generated every day. Any ideas?

[mathgirl]

Sources are telling me that Minecraft has sold over 200 million copies. Some of those copies are owned by avid players who have generated hundreds or even thousands of new worlds during their lives. I’d imagine many more copies are owned by people who haven’t spent much time on it, and only created one or two new worlds, or even zero.

I’m gonna take a wild guess and say the average number of new worlds generated in any given Minecraft game is 10. With 200 million copies sold, this estimates that 2 billion worlds have been generated and played in.

The Minecraft fan wiki tells me that in Java edition, there are 2^48 possible seeds that can generate meaningful, unique worlds. (To keep things simple, I’m ignoring differences between bedrock and java editions here.)

The question I’m asking is: what are the chances that two players have ever generated the exact same seed by chance? Or inversely: what are the chances that every seed generated so far has been unique? This is equivalent to the Birthday Paradox, which I’d love to discuss in detail, but I’ll try to keep it brief.

The birthday paradox asks the question: in a room full of people, what are the chances that two people share the same birthday? You can think of a person’s birthday like some random value from 1 to 365 that is assigned to them (excluding February 29 for the sake of simplicity; sorry leap year babies). Any two people have a pretty low chance of having the same birthday, but this problem is called a paradox because the answer isn’t intuitive, and the odds are higher than you’d expect. In a room of 23 people, there’s a more than 50% chance that two individuals share a birthday.

Rather than going over the math here, I’ll let you check it out on wikipedia, but it basically boils down to this: add people to the group one-by-one, and check the likelihood of everyone in the group having a different birthday. The first person is alone, and therefore has a 100% chance of having a unique birthday. Add a second person. In order for their birthday to be unique, it has to fall on one of the 364 days that aren’t the first person’s birthday, giving them a very high 364/365 chance of having a unique birthday. The pool of possible unique birthdays shrinks again for the third person, but they still have a 363/365 chance of being unique. And so on.

I won’t get into the pigeonhole principle, fascinating as it is, since it isn’t relevant to our Minecraft problem. Hopefully you can see that if you replace the days of the year with possible random seeds, and replace people in a room with randomly generated seeds, it’s the same exact question.

Wikipedia helpfully shows us how to calculate the probability that a group of n people all have unique birthdays, and gives us this formula:

Just replace 365 with our total potential number of seeds (2^48) and interpret n as the number of randomly generated worlds, and we’re well on the way to finding the chance that every generated world has been unique.

Er... the only problem is, these are quite big numbers to be calculating factorials and binomial coefficients for. I’m kind of scared to ask a machine to do that for me. Luckily, Wolfram Alpha has a built in birthday paradox calculator, but... it’s not quite up to the task either.

Um... help?

(This can be done with some kind of approximation, and I’ll try to tackle it later if nobody else gives it a shot)

[the-real-numbers-deactivated202]

(not to steal your thunder, but this looks like a fun computation. I do want to see if you get the same thing, I may have errors.)

You can use Stirling's approximation (like you alluded to), and if you substitute 2^48 with a variable (here it's alpha) it's easy to simplify. I think you get this:

Note that the final formula in the circle is still an approximation but boy is it nice. And for numbers like 2^48 it should be pretty accurate.

[mathgirl]

So it seems we’re all getting answers that basically round to zero. Your approximation is mostly dominated by the 1/e^n term, which is very small for n as large as 2 billion. @galois-groupie​ attempted an approximation as well, which resulted in another negligible result. And I opted to try this Taylor approximation that wikipedia provided for the generalized birthday problem:

(note that this is the probability of getting two same birthdays, not the probability of all unique birthdays, so it’s the opposite of the result you guys found. Plugging in 2^48 for d and 2 billion for n gives a result that rounds to 1.)

So what does this mean for Minecraft? I think it’s safe to say that the chance of every randomly generated seed being unique is negligibly small, meaning it’s certain that two people somewhere have rolled the same seed. In fact, there are probably lots of seed soulmates out there. If you believe, then there’s a chance your favorite speedrunner may have stumbled across your own world seed while they were going for the world record.

I think the reason the result is so clear hearkens back to the birthday problem itself. Out of 365 possible birthdays you can have, the chance of two people sharing a birthday ramps up really fast for every person you introduce to the group.

This makes sense if you think about the number of pairs of people in a group, since that’s what you’re really checking when looking for a match. For every person you add, the web of pairs grows more complex. In the case of Minecraft, the number of pairs you can draw between 2 billion worlds is absolutely enormous. I just guessed those numbers, but I’m sure you’d get a similar result no matter what reasonable estimate you make.

This was a fun exercise! Thanks for the help. And good luck finding your Minecraft soulmate.

[math-memes]

[the-real-numbers-deactivated202]

DC Police: Persons of interest sought in US Capitol riot

[amarynceus]

0168/1000. 

 Uvethi Freighter stopping at a remote water tower in central Ossiweith to top off boiler feed water.  33 minutes.

- - - - - -

Clip Studio Paint, Cintiq 22HD. © Avatar Z Brown. All paintings made possible by Patron support. | DeviantArt | Patreon | Picarto | Twitter | Paypal | Ko-Fi |

[bunnyface]

i really want a magical sparkly princess transformation scene for her

[stinkyhat-deactivated20231213]

its silly that we have BLM carrds going around, everyone was reblogging them months ago on the regular & u guys are still asking “what are we supposed to do if voting biden is bad” or whatever. like the answer was in those carrds, several of them provided books & pdfs, most of them were FREE for you to read. & you STILL didn’t do your homework.

stop reblogging headlines without reading the article. actually put in the effort to learn about how to be antiracist and how to organize & make a change within ur community. get in touch with local groups. if you don’t have any near you, take the time to learn, listen, & spread resources. research & criticize yourself. take it easy, but take it.

here are those resources again to get started:

ORGANIZING RESOURCES doc

Master List of Black Revolutionary Readings by Timmy Chau (free pdfs, some have been taken down but most are still up, you could try googling the ones that have been deleted)

Anti-racist Resource Guide by Tasha K. (books, podcasts, movies and more)

D e c o l o n i z e : Resources by Ari Sahagún and Jay Saper (also check out resource generation)

Antisemitism: a basic guide by @bishonen and @hotgirlkakashi

yes this is a lot to take in all at once. make small goals for yourself though, try reading at least two articles a day that interest you, etc. find out what works for you.

[stinkyhat-deactivated20231213]

added a doc about antisemitism

[gem-femme]

Y’all have heard of ACAB, now get ready for ALAB.

All Landlords Are Bastards.

[gem-femme]

Here’s a link to the autonomous tenants union network for anyone who’s worried about rent or wants to get involved.

https://atun-rsia.org/tenants-unions

Our ongoing directory of tenants unions in North America.

[cyberbullyinc]

hello yall!

As many others, I lost my job due to c*vid, so I recently opened a fiverr account in order to sell my drawings! The three packages I have are:

Lines! ($5)

you get a two tone (1 for the outline 1 for the background) minimalistic portrait drawing (deliver within the same day):

Details! ($10)

it’s a (more detailed) minimalistic design, highlighting key points of the drawing (also deliver within the same day):

Davinky? ($25)

A more realistic color block detailed portrait, (therefore it takes a little longer, 2 to 3 days):

All drawings are 2048x2048

In case anyone’s interested, here’s the link to my gig. And I’d very much appreciate if you reblogged this so it gets to more people who might be interested💕

[cyberbullyinc]

u can also dm for requests if u don’t have a fiverr account!

[prinnay]

Cinderella

[manbiteshog]

thanksgiving is a holiday based on a falsified narrative full of white guilt and the erasure of history so what are some good native organizations to donate to this coming thursday

[manbiteshog]

organizations recommended by @loneghostkid 

native american rights fund

heyday berkely roundhouse

news from native california magazine

national indian child welfare association

california indian legal services

the national indigenous women’s resource center

[meshkwahkihaki]

please also consider looking into funding native/tribal food sovereignty projects if you have food to donate or money to spare. friends, please add more if you know of them and have links to provide:

native american food sovereignty alliance

meskwaki food sovereignty initiative

friends of pine ridge reservation

first nations development institute

you can also buy food/gifts from indigenous sellers or donate to gofundme fundraisers made by indigenous people who need help getting groceries, paying medical bills, or paying rent. do something to help us and our communities.

[britomartis]

try water projects too, like the navajo water project: https://www.navajowaterproject.org/

Navajo Water Project

Help DigDeep bring clean, running water to hundreds of American families. Nearly 40% of Navajo don't have a tap or toilet at home. We can fi

a lot of reservations are fucked over on water by illegal oil drilling, pipelines, or other breaches, like in the navajo rez’s case: contaminated by illegal uranium mining.

[mango-habanero-autism-deactivat]

I would like to put my endorsement to the Sovereign Bodies Institute, home of the database of Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women. The database is trans-inclusive, the data protocols follow the desires of the families of MMIW, and this holiday season, they are collecting donations to buy gifts for the families, especially the children, of missing and murdered women. 

[qaigulik-deactivated20251021]

I’d like to add Feeding Nunavut, the cost of living in the isolated north for Inuit is up to and sometimes over 5x the prices the rest of Canada is used to.

[bumblesnail]

grass starters are Very Good i have decided

[politijohn]

Get to know Kamala Harris

Pushed a law that forces schools to turn undocumented students over to ICE, separating them from their parents and violating human rights

Laughed about putting parents in jail if their kids missed school, disproportionately harming single parent households, the poor, and families of color like this one, including homeless mothers

Her office refused to address what the Supreme Court calls “unconstitutionally overcrowded” prisons specifically to perpetuate the exploitation of the mass incarcerated for slave labor close to $1/hour(she later claimed she didn’t know her own lawyers argued this.

Declined to prosecute Steven Mnuchin after his bank’s predatory lending and foreclosure fraud broke the law “over a thousand” times and ruined the lives of thousands of homeowners, keeping him free to donate to her campaign and become Trump’s Treasury Secretary

Spent years jailing disproportionately black nonviolent cannabis users while opposing taking cannabis off DEA’s list of most dangerous substances and literally laughing at the idea of legalizing it multiple times, even as her Republican opponent ran to the left of her on the issue. She then tried to pander by admitting to smoking herself despite prosecuting others, but got her story all wrong, and even offended her own Jamaican family to the point they’ve disassociated with her

Used a technicality to stop the release of a man serving 27 years-to-life after being wrongfully convicted of possession of a knife under the three-strikes law she supported. When civil rights groups and nearly 100,000 petition signatures got him released after 14 years she took him back to court again for a crime he didn’t commit

Opposed reforming California’s three-strikes law, which is the only one in the country to impose life sentences for minor felonies and incarcerates black people at 12x the rate as white people, three different times, even while her Republican opponent supported reform

Appealed a judge ruling that the death penalty was unconstitutional and won on a technicality, resulting in continued executions

When evidence pointed towards a black defendant being framed by police, Harris avoided DNA testing to keep him on death row

Protected serial child rapists by refusing to prosecute in the Catholic Church sex abuse scandal

Lied about her state’s solitary confinement to block a suit by inmates, claiming there was none in California when there were about 6,400 victims of the practice, which is considered torture

Oversaw a state prosecutor falsifying a confession to get a life sentence and then destroyed the evidence, upheld a conviction secured by a prosecutor lying under oath, and oversaw the framing of another man

Opposed legislation that would require independent investigation of fatal police shootings despite criticism from many civil rights advocates including California’s Legislative Black Caucus

Opposed statewide implementation of police body cameras and ignored police brutality, multiple officers raping a teenager, and other officers sharing racist and homophobic messages, despite multiple requests from the public defender

Refused to hand over the names of police whose testimonies led to convictions despite the officers’ arrest records and past misconduct

Tried to deny a transgender inmate healthcare and endangered trans women by forcing them into mens prisons, leading to the rape and torture of at least one trans inmate

Stood by silently as $730 million was spent on moving inmates to for-profit private prisons

Delayed the confiscation of illegal firearms from dangerous people, then posed a “continued risk to public safety” by failing to implement changes state auditors recommended to fix this despite receiving $24 million specifically for this purpose

Voted two different times to block federal funding for abortions

Following the foreclosure fraud scandal she negotiated a deal great for banks but bad for the ruined homeowners, becoming one of Wall Street’s favorite candidates to fundraise for

Voted to give Trump increased military spending two different times.

Supports Trump escalating war in Syria

Co-sponsored the bill that let Trump impose sanctions on Iran which violated the nuclear deal and lead to the currently rising tensions

“Systematically violated defendants’ civil and constitutional rights” in crime lab scandal

Kept her Orange County DA office from being charged for running an unconstitutional jailhouse informant program they tried to cover up.

Oversaw San Francisco’s felony conviction rate rising from 52% to 67% in only 3 years

As part of her tough on crime approach she assigned senior prosecutors to misdemeanors like graffiti and vandalism, tripling the number of cases brought to trial

Mocks the activist call to “build more schools, less jails”

Supports collecting and keeping DNA from people even if they’ve not been charged with a crime

Defended the discriminatory practice of cash bail in court as recently as June 2016

Supports Israel’s right-wing government and cozies up to AIPAC, co-sponsored resolution against Obama in support of illegal settlements, does not support Palestinian rights, and calls BDS “anti-semitic”

Claimed to be unaware of sexual harassment and retaliation by her top aide over a 6 year span

Sponsored a bill allowing for prosecutors to seize profits before charges are even filed and opposed a bill that would reform civil asset forfeiture

Defended a prison’s religious discrimination in hiring policy

Opposed calls to tear down 700 miles of existing border wall/fence

Fought to limit amount of land indigenous tribes could place in trust and tried to take reservation land away from a tribe just to keep them from evicting a non-indigenous man who had lived there without paying rent for 24 years

Is a latecomer in endorsing Medicare for All and already appears to be backtracking on multiple aspects of it

Refused to review a case in which a pharmaceutical CEO killed his wife but made it look like a suicide after their son died under mysterious circumstances as well

Refused to prosecute PG&E for its massive gas pipeline explosion and now its consultants are running her campaign

Did not properly investigate the San Onofre scandal to protect her political allies.

Refused to investigate Herbalife’s exploitation and fraud, receiving donations from people connected to the corporation

Her associate operated a fake police force but somehow all charges were dismissed

Refuses to support AB5 to give gig workers like rideshare drivers basic employee rights (her brother-in-law & niece are high-up in Uber)

Opposed legalization of sex work, endangered sex workers, and oversaw people being charged for prostitution without even agreeing to sex

Endangered the public by supporting legislation that increased the homeless sex offender population 24x in 3 years, then appealed a court’s ruling that it was unconstitutional. Her Republican opponent ran to the left of her on this issue

Accepted thousands of dollars of campaign funds from Donald and Ivanka Trump multiple times

Accepts donations from prominent charter school pusher and billionaire Reed Hastings

[fiishnchiips-deactivated2023042]

lil preview on a hnk animation im working on :3c

[sonnearchive-deactivated2022120]

If you're celebrating Biden's win, consider celebrating by donating to a bail fund, planned parenthood, or the Navajo Water project.

Your action to help the marginalized shouldnt end at presidential candidates and voting.