Aqua Utopia|海の底で記憶を紡ぐ
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"I'm Dorothy Gale from Kansas"
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@intertextualitas
The AI that we’ll have after AI
I'm on a tour with my new book Enshittification: catch me next in Los Angeles, Calgary and San Francisco! Full schedule here.
When the AI bubble pops, what will remain? Cheap GPUs at firesale prices, skilled applied statisticians looking for work, and open source models that already do impressive things, but will grow far more impressive after being optimized:
https://pluralistic.net/2025/09/27/econopocalypse/#subprime-intelligence
The AI bubble companies are scams. They've spend most of a trillion dollars in capital expenditures, and by their own (very cooked and dishonest) numbers, they are grossing a total of $45b/year, industry-wide:
https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubbles-impossible-promises/
At $45b/year (an inflated number, remember!) it's going to take them a long time to recoup the hundreds of billions of dollars they've spent so far. But they don't have a long time: the massive GPUs that power AI's "foundation models" and cost six- or seven-figures each burn out remarkably quickly. The companies that buy these GPUs claim they'll last five years (and depreciate them over that schedule); however, this is accounting fraud, because in reality, these GPUs have a duty-cycle that's more like two to three years:
https://blog.citp.princeton.edu/2025/10/15/lifespan-of-ai-chips-the-300-billion-question/
And when the companies run their GPUs really hard, they burn out in just 54 days:
https://techblog.comsoc.org/2024/11/25/superclusters-of-nvidia-gpu-ai-chips-combined-with-end-to-end-network-platforms-to-create-next-generation-data-centers/
To recoup their existing and announced investments, AI companies will have to bring in $2 trillion, more than the combined revenue of Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia and Meta:
https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/20252/$2-trillion-in-new-revenue-needed-to-fund-ais-scaling-trend—bain–companys-6th-annual-global-technology-report/
And they have to bring in that $2 trillion before all those GPUs burn out…which is, again, about 2-3 years.
Or sometimes just 54 days.
AI companies' purchases and R&D expenditures aren't guided by the need to make products that will bring in $2 trillion dollars. AI companies spend money in order to put on a show for investors, to demonstrate that they are very serious about AI. Think of all those GPU-stuffed data-centers as akin to a peacock's tailfeathers: an expensive way to attract mates (or, in this case, investors), by emitting costly signals that demonstrate your power:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signalling_theory
Of course, it's far cheaper to pretend to be spending a lot of money than it is to actually spend it, and they're doing plenty of that, too. Meta has promised to spend $72b next year on data-centers. However, Meta's annual free cash flow is $52.1b. OpenAI says it will spend $60b/year on data-centers, which is five times its annual revenue of $12.7b (and the company is losing $9b/year). As The American Prospect's Brian McMahon writes, "How can OpenAI plan to spend five times what it brought in?"
https://prospect.org/power/2025-10-15-nvidia-openai-ai-oracle-chips/
I don't know how many of these giant "foundation models" will still be online after the crash, but I would not be surprised if that number is zero.
So the big question is, what comes next? What will the AI bubble leave behind?
Girls will be boys
Boys will be girls
Fascists will 💖 be shot💖
onko sulle tuttu "jos kakku kaatuu, kuolee yksin"?
on, tai ainakin olen kuullut jonkun sanovan
mitä vittua ei
muinaista viisautta
mood
Girls arrested in associated with the “Zoot Suit Riots,” 1943
apám az elmúlt napokban
én: kicsit kibillent az alvásritmusom, megpróbálok ma lefeküdni aludni korán.
apám: hát tolj be egy üveg bort, az elálmosít! ha még mindig nem alszol ezután, öblítsd le valami mással!
én: talán megiszok egy teát inkább…
-
én: na hogy megy az unoka szülinapja?
apám “vicceskedve” az unokának: ha nem viselkedsz mindjárt tökönrúglak!
én: na jó, jó szórakozást.
—-
apám amúgy a kevésbé homofób, kicsit olvasottabb szülőm.
na mindegy, ezt csak le akartam írni egy ideje. Nem biztos, hogy olyan sűrűn kell beszélnünk.
Lady Gaga — Coachella 2025
Gagachella you will be forever iconic
I genuinely admire the “2014-15 I study/want to study gender studies at CEU in Budapest” hair style. A bit late to the game, but it still holds my spirit hostage. This has been me.
So I have some news...
We are making a feature film to conclude the Heartstopper screen adaptation, based on Heartstopper Volume 6 and the ‘Nick and Charlie’ novella. We are getting to tell the end of the story!!! I’m deeply relieved and so excited about this new creative venture. I’ve written the script and we’re hard at work already. I know you’ll have a lot of questions, and I’ll be able to talk about it more very soon, but for now let’s CELEBRATE! Heartstopper is getting its ending!!!!!! 🍂
Scandinavians when outdoor string lights were invented
Scandinavian trees from October to March:
Before this we would mostly just set things on fire to keep our spirits up
Scandinavians before outdoor string lights were invented:
and Finns
why is my family posting bdsm pro clean earth memes on hungarian facebook
(You’re a guest on earth, behave!)
hasznosság!
Vlsz ez lesz a legdrágább pride-om, (+200.000, ha nincs szerencsém), de ez a kivételes alkalom, amikor azt mondom, minden pénzt megér.
Én kifizetem valaki büntetését, ha megvágják és nem engedheti meg magának.
Basszák meg, a szolidaritásra nagyobb szükség van mint valaha.
szintén
Gecipajzs hasznalata sose volt aktualisabb.
Aka pornóüveg
Meg beszélnem kell a munkaüggyel, a feddhetetlenségi miatt aggódom...😐
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