Kenya’s Political Party Shuffle Fuels Violence and Instability
Barely seven months after leaving office, former President Uhuru Kenyatta finds himself fighting to keep his once-powerful Jubilee Party afloat. The party that clinched him a second term and parliamentary majority in 2017 suffered a devastating blow in the 2022 elections—winning only 27 of 290 parliamentary seats, four senatorial posts, and just one governorship. But this isn’t unusual in Kenya. Political parties here rarely survive beyond a single election cycle.
In fact, since the defeat of the independence-era KANU party in 2002, no single party or coalition has held on to power for more than one term. Party-hopping by political elites has become the norm. Kenyan political scientist Gilbert Khadiagala, who has spent decades researching this volatility, explains how it’s feeding the flames of instability.
A History of Fluid Alliances
Kenya’s political fluidity dates back to the early 1990s when the country reintroduced multiparty democracy. Opposition alliances quickly emerged to challenge KANU, the dominant ruling party that had held power since independence. KANU, under Jomo Kenyatta and later Daniel arap Moi, governed with an iron grip—co-opting opposition leaders into its vast patronage network while silencing dissent.
The newly formed coalitions were often united more by ethnicity and regional loyalty than by ideology. One of the earliest coalitions, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD), fractured within a year into FORD-Kenya and FORD-Asili. Splinters like this would become a pattern, with coalitions routinely breaking apart and reconfiguring ahead of each election.
Even today, the country’s dominant coalitions—Kenya Kwanza (led by President William Ruto) and Azimio la Umoja (led by opposition leader Raila Odinga)—are a patchwork of smaller, often regionally or ethnically based parties. These alliances, built for short-term electoral gain, lack the ideological coherence and institutional resilience needed for long-term governance.
Thirty years into competitive politics, many had hoped Kenya would develop strong national parties. Instead, the country is stuck with fragile coalitions that rise and fall with each electoral cycle. This fuels uncertainty and undermines political stability.
In more mature democracies, such as Germany, political parties are deeply institutionalized and form coalitions after elections based on clear policy alignments. In Kenya, however, coalitions are hastily assembled before elections, with little thought to governance once in office.
The result is deepening societal rifts. Ethnic mobilization, patronage politics, and resource competition have turned elections into high-stakes battles that often spill into violence. This is especially dangerous in a “winner-takes-all” system like Kenya’s, where the prize is control over vast national resources and public offices.
How Instability Breeds Violence and Corruption
Fragile coalitions also create fertile ground for unrest. Losing coalitions often reject election results and mobilize their supporters, leading to post-election violence. A striking example occurred after the 2017 elections, when Odinga’s NASA coalition threatened to push for the secession of their regions following disputed results.
The 2002 formation of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) under Mwai Kibaki initially seemed like a turning point. But optimism soon faded. The coalition collapsed amid internal ethnic tensions and ultimately contributed to the 2007–2008 post-election violence that left over a thousand dead and displaced hundreds of thousands.
Even the 2008 Government of National Unity—brokered by international mediators—was riddled with tensions. Its leaders parted ways and formed new coalitions for the next election, perpetuating the cycle.
These unstable alliances also drive corruption. Winning coalitions often spend enormous amounts to secure victory and must recoup these costs once in power—usually through looting and misappropriation of state resources.
Are There Any Benefits to These Loose Coalitions?
In deeply divided societies, temporary alliances can sometimes offer a way to share power and project a veneer of national unity. Kenya’s coalitions allow ethnically and regionally diverse leaders to collaborate—at least on the surface. But such cooperation is usually short-lived and lacks meaningful policy coordination.
Until Kenya achieves deeper national cohesion, these fluid coalitions may continue to serve as a practical, albeit imperfect, model for navigating its diverse society.
The Path Forward: Building Real Parties
For Kenya to break this destructive cycle, its politics must shift from ethnic allegiances to issue-based engagement. The public already shares many common concerns—cost of living, unemployment, health care, and education. But the political class thrives on division, using ethnicity to distract from economic and governance failures.
Transforming coalitions into stable, institutionalized parties with clear ideologies and national reach is essential. Only then can Kenya move toward more predictable, peaceful, and transparent politics. Until the quest for presidential power becomes less about ethnic arithmetic and more about national interest, the country’s political landscape will remain as volatile as ever.
