Love as a function of numbers
Bernard Salt, social editor of The Australian and partner at KPMG, wrote an interesting - albeit mildly depressing - column recently, arguing that love and lust is a function of numbers.
Based on his book, Man Drought, Salt's central thesis initially was that whenever there is an oversupply of men, women have the upper hand because they can pick and choose.
This is precisely what happens in the 'prime partnering' phase of the lifecycle, between 18-34.
There is a natural oversupply of boys relative to girls at birth leaving an excess male population that lasts through the teens, 20s and 30s.
So, at age 25, there are 165, 000 women and 173, 000 men in Australia. If they all paired up, 5 per cent of men would miss out.
It's a period that Salt is characteristic of a 'shocking sheila shortage'.
(Unsurprisingly, the numbers are reversed at the age of 50 when there are 159, 000 women and 155, 000 men, resulting in 3 per cent of women missing out. )
The inherent flaw in this argument is that women typically do not choose a partner within their age cohort - rather, women still choose a partner roughly 2 years older i.e., the average age of first marriage is 27 for women and 29 for men.
This means, Salt argues, that the 'equation that really matters is the supply of women relative to the supply of men two years older'.
By the time women get to 27, there are 168, 000 women looking for a partner among 164, 000 men aged 29. Meaning, if they all paired up, 4,000 women would miss out.
The 'shrinkage' of men means that by their late 20s, men are more likely than women to travel, work and live overseas, thereby removing themselves from the Australian partnering market.
Moreover, there is a 'quality' shift - 'educated, entrepreneurial, self-confident alpha men are more likely to work overseas, leaving a shallow pool of second-tier beta boys for local women to choose from'.
Fabulous.
So what can women do to circumvent this trend?
a) Partner with men their own age or younger
b) Remain overseas after backpacking: after all, 'why come back to the beta boys?'.
c) Let go of their preconceived ideas of their partner's age (men need to do this too)
d) Hope that Australians no longer see value in living and working overseas for extended periods
Given the unrealistic prospect of d) and moreover faced with the realistic option of younger beta boys, perhaps it's time to pack my bags!












