Matthew E. Nieminski

  Intelligence analyst specializing in terrorism and conflict. All views and opinions expressed here are my own.  

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Special for HackerUSA and University of Miami

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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Forecasting the Social Media Threat Landscape

Dependence on Social Media and Data-Driven Economies:

Citizens in today’s data-centric digital environment are ceding control of their lives to sophisticated technologies they barely understand - and doing so at a speed that seems to accelerate every year. As part of the United States’ Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources (CIKR), the Information Technology Sector is listed as central to the nation's security, economy, and public health as well as the safety and continuity of businesses, governments, academia, and private citizens. As part of this Information Technology Sector, Social Media Platforms and the Infosphere they create are playing an increasingly important role. In ways not fully understood, the United States is shifting to an “information economy,” which is becoming perilously dependent on vulnerable networks of information and data gathering, exchange, communication, analysis, and decision making. 

Conflict in 140 Characters or Less:

With the continued and growing use of social media platforms and the associated data mining used by tech companies, the potential for virtual or social media-based warfare is certainly emerging. Social Media-based or virtual conflict, as in all warfare, will target the adversary’s will; attacks on physical targets will merely serve as a means to an end. Like guerilla or asymmetrical warfare tactics, nefarious actors on social media will continue to target their victims in a continuous barrage of posts, tweets, and videos. Below I forecast the role social media will play in digital violence and virtual societal warfare.

Immediate or Existing Threats:

As in the past, social media platforms are expected to continue to be used as mediums to post or message physical security threats posed to an organization’s personnel, assets, operations, or reputation. Additionally, nefarious actors are expected to continue to use various social media platforms to fraudulently impersonate an organization’s executives or key decision makers. These fraudulent impersonations will be more effective on emerging or start-up social media applications and technologies with smaller budgets that have limited resources and staff dedicated to “Trust and Safety” or “Accounts Integrity” issues. 

Social Media platforms can be monitored using a variety of OSINT tools to mitigate threats posed to an organization’s physical security. Threats posed by impersonation can be mitigated or deterred by creating an official social media or digital footprint for willing executives, monitoring for fraudulent activity, and establishing relationships with the Accounts Integrity and Trust and Safety Teams of different social media or technology companies. 

There is a significant geo-political risk involved in the use of social media platforms and applications. While most startups are generally acquired by one of the five tech giants, user data is a global concern. TikTok, an emerging social media platform of increasing popularity is owned and operated by the 9th richest oligarch in China. Anybody using this emerging social media application is essentially putting their user data or “sousveillance” in the hands of The China Petroleum Pipeline Bureau and transitively the Chinese government. This creates the opportunity for blackmail, extortion, or the corruption of international business deals common amongst multinational corporations. 

Outside of the European Union and GDPR, there are currently no laws to protect users and their data from applications or individuals with nefarious intentions. Additionally, most social media users agree to data mining through the application’s terms and conditions. Threats posed by data collection can be mitigated by best-practices, due diligence, and abstaining from using questionable social media platforms. Due Diligence Threat Assessments can be created on any emerging social media technologies. The OSINT information about a tech startup can then be compared to internationally accredited databases, such as the Freedom Index, Corruption Index, and OSAC reports. 

Imminent or Near-Future Threats:

All the aforementioned immediate threats are expected to exist in the imminent or near future. Existing threats might be mitigated by process improvements and increased “Accounts Integrity” or “Trust and Safety” resources on behalf of tech companies. 

Right now, news feeds and posts are regulated on social media platforms using proprietary algorithms, a closely guarded company secret. In a corruption of data-driven targeted marketing techniques, these algorithms could be weaponized in massive disinformation campaigns directed at a targeted audience deliberately selected for maximum impact. This disinformation campaigns could pose a real threat to a person or organization’s reputation or branding. 

There is an increased interest in anonymous cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and a potential these currencies could begin to be used in standard business practices. Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Systems will need to be closely monitored to protect against fraudulent behavior or misrepresenting an executive. While the financial transactions and banking information will most likely entail top-notch cyber security protocols, there is still the potential for individuals to misrepresent themselves as corporate executives or entities. 

Long-Term or Future Threats:

Oculus, a member of the Facebook family of apps, hopes to mainstream virtual reality experiences. Eventually these VR environments will take on an official business capacity, hosting meetings, boardrooms, and other corporate interactions. There is the potential for individuals to corrupt these virtual reality environments, misrepresenting the setting, boardroom or even participants to fraudulently represent operations or launch cyber-attacks. 

Human-based security procedures, such as memorized words or phrases can be implemented in VR environments to minimize the risk of misrepresentation or fraudulent activity. 

Hollywood has nearly perfected computer-generated images (CGI) videos. Star Wars’ Rogue One featured lifelike characters played by actors who have long since died. It is only a matter of time until this technology is weaponized by bad actors, who could manipulate videos in an act of executive impersonation and create “deep fake” content to create fraudulent misinformation campaigns or target a brand’s reputation. 

While many executives and C-level personnel are very public figures, there are ways risks posed by CGI deep fakes can be mitigated. CGI videographers can be thwarted through the proactive control of a high-profile figure’s digital or social media footprint. Videographers and editors can discuss which angles of a human are hardest to recreate, edit or manipulate and encouraging high-profile figures to utilize these angles. Any other videos can be watermarked making it more difficult to create a deep fake.

Forecasting the Social Media Threat Landscape:

The history of the human race has demonstrated a cyclical pattern. Innovative technologies are invented to ease the burdens of humanity and then those technologies are weaponized and ultimately used in conflict and warfare. 

Information Technology is part of the United States’ Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources. Social Media and the Infospheres created by different applications and platforms are an important part of the Information Technology CIKR sector. Like most misused technologies, awareness, in-place standard operating procedures, and an elevated security posture can help mitigate the threats posed by social media use. Monitoring the platforms and applications increases the potential for detection and reporting suspicious behavior. Individuals and networks of digital transnational criminal groups should be prosecuted to deter copycat criminals and recidivists.

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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The Weaponization of Digital Technology

Special for HackerUSA

As humans advance further into the Digital Age, we are all more connected than ever before.

Emerging technologies have afforded us at-home Information Units that play our favorite songs, tablet computers to research different recipes and cooking tutorials, and watches that monitor our pulse and other health indicators, all at the same time.

Everyday gadgets such as these are able to send and receive data and are referred to as the “Internet of Things” or IoT. However, while these connected devices make our lives infinitely easier, there is a dark side to all this connectivity.

Technology Continues to be Weaponized

Like so many technology disruptors before it, the peaceful intentions of the internet have been warped and weaponized by actors with more nefarious intentions. The United States’ Office of Personnel Management (OPM) digital housed information relating to the background checks of government personnel. While computers and networks made storing and accessing the information easier, digitized storage also made the information “hackable.” In June 2015, OPM announced it had been hacked and the national security data breach resulted in 21.5 million stolen personnel records.

Similarly, entertainment giants use technology to facilitate the creative and editing process, but movies and television shows stored digitally are alluring targets for hackers. In November 2014, hackers targeted Sony Pictures Entertainment and released upcoming movies. In July 2017, cyber criminals illegally penetrated HBO’s networks and released episodes of popular series ahead of schedule.

Hacks and data breaches don’t just cause national security headaches or cost entertainment companies millions in reputation and advertisements. There are very real repercussions to compromising devices connected to the IoT. Cayla the doll, a seemingly innocent child’s toy, was banned in Germany after several vulnerabilities in the unsecure bluetooth allowed hackers to hear and talk to the child playing with it. Digitized storage poses a threat to the most vulnerable when not properly protected.

Social Media Users Beware

Social media platforms are heralded as the pinnacle of connectivity. Its where soldiers deployed in a combat zone can go to see images of their children being born  and where students studying abroad can see videos of their family pets fetching on demand in real time. But bad actors have found a way to weaponize social media – even engaging in hostile social manipulation or “the purposeful, systematic generation and dissemination of information to produce harmful social, political, and economic outcomes.”

In 2015, the Russian government-linked Internet Research Agency flooded social media channels with fake reports of a chemical plant explosion in Louisiana. The Colombia Chemical Hoax was eventually traced back to a Russian troll farm, but not before the false reports created widespread panic.

Similarly, nearly everyone has interacted with website based “chat bots.” These “bots” use artificial intelligence to guide a customer to the appropriate part of a website or triage inquiries to the appropriate help desk representative. Now, imagine a not too distant future where the features and machine learning of these  improved “chat bots” can be weaponized on social media targeting different celebrities, government officials, and even every day citizens with weaponized targeting and high-level cyberbullying campaigns.

Corruption of Algorithms

In our current information-centric and data-driven society, algorithms and machine learning are used across industry verticals. They are used for hiring and recruiting, monitoring and predicting consumer behavior, and are even used to provide care options to doctors about our personal health.

Consider the impact of manipulating algorithms used to automatically reorder food in grocery stores and distribution centers. If these formulas are altered, they could potentially artificially increase the demand of household goods, driving the price down and creating a surplus. This would interfere with the stability of a countries interconnected economy. The economic damage caused by interfering with the global oil market could have drastic consequences.

Technology and advancements undoubtedly make our lives easier, but it is a double edged sword that can be used to wreak havoc and cause immeasurable damage.

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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Family Matters

Intelligence and security officials have long warned against threats posed by lone-actor terrorism. By their compartmentalized and isolated nature, attacks planned, funded, and executed by a single individual are harder for law enforcement and intelligence officials to detect and prevent.

Omar Mateen, a lone-actor terrorist who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, used this methodology when planning and conducting an attack on the Pulse Nightclub in Orlando, Florida. Similarly, Nidal Hassan was a lone-actor terrorist inspired by al-Qaeda who attacked a military installation in Fort Hood, Texas.

ISIS’ leadership understands the challenges lone-actor terrorism poses to law enforcement and thus encourages the strategy:

“Do not ask for anyone’s advice and do not seek anyone’s verdict. If you are not able to find an IED or a bullet…smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him. If you are unable to do so, burn his home, car or business.”

This is what’s concerning regarding the use of “Family Terrorism” in Southeast Asia, specifically the attacks in Surabaya, Indonesia. Like cells in terrorist networks, families are a group of people with different talents and specialties. Where law enforcement officials can infiltrate cells or turn individuals against the group or parent organization, families are more tight-knit and maintain stronger loyalties.  Family terrorism takes the strengths of cells and combines it with the operational security of lone-actor terrorism.

Entire radicalized families can function as terrorist cells and will be difficult for law enforcement and intelligence officials to infiltrate, detect, and prevent.

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You Can’t Go Home Again:

During ISIS’ infancy, the media warned foreign fighters could return to their homelands more radicalized.

As if an individual abandoning their lives, homes, and countries to participate in jihad could return “more radicalized.”

Now the narrative has shifted away from the notion that these jihadists would become “more radicalized” and instead focuses on their real threat: their combat training and experience. The United Nations' Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) notes, “The current wave of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs)  shows clear differences compared to previous waves. The present wave is larger, increasingly global, and more diverse in terms of age, gender, and experience in conflict zones.”

ISIS announced its Caliphate in 2014, so those jihadists that haven’t been captured or killed may have close to four years of training, fighting, and live combat experience. Then there are those individuals who engaged in support roles behind the front lines, the administrators, mothers, and ideologues. Their danger is not just in their ability or desire to conduct attacks, but of their institutional knowledge of managing covert terrorist cells and their heinous ideology.

Foreign-born jihadists fleeing Iraq and Syria could return to their native homelands; however, they may opt to relocate to under-developed or under-governed regions more sympathetic and conducive to their ideology. South Asia is primed for a dramatic increase in terrorist activity, as demonstrated by the recent suicide bombings utilizing children in Indonesia.

Whether jihadists attempt to return home or relocate, their threat is very real. They are experienced, diverse, and global.

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism.  Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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The Butterfly Effect

While the international community attempts to prevent a potential nuclear conflict prompted by North Korean dictator Kim Jung-On, other dictators, terrorist regimes, and enemies are carefully watching the United States and the international community’s response.

Despite years of belligerent and aggressive rhetoric, Kim Jung-On does not want an international nuclear conflict - assuming Jong-On is a rational statesmen. With the support of the international community, a war would usher in the end of the more than 100 year old Kim dynasty, which began in 1912. Kim Jung-On knows no other leadership method, his volatile behavior has only been conditioned and rewarded with appeasement.

Back in 1994, President Clinton prepared to confront North Korea after intelligence indicated it had built nuclear warheads. Instead of confronting the issue, Washington and Pyongyang reached a bizarre agreement resulting in two new reactors and $5 billion in aid for North Korea.

All the rogue regime had to do was promise and pinky swear not to use the technology to pursue a nuclear weapons program.

In 2002, North Korea admitted it was violating the agreement since the first day. Four years later, Pyongyang successfully detonated its first nuclear weapon. For the next decade, North Korea would belligerently and aggressively test and launch missiles. Despite the weapons tests and threats, the Obama Administration provided 240,000 metric tons of food aid and nutritional supplements to the nation. The international community attempted to use the foreign aid as leverage, providing the rogue state would promise to act more neighborly.

For the Bush and Obama administrations, North Korea was successfully able to indulge in “the carrot” without ever fearing “the stick.” For the first time, Kim Jung-On is matched with an administration who is not caving to threats, acts of aggression, and belligerence.

The entire “North Korean Missile Crisis” scenario foreshadows the eventual conflict with Iran. Despite a geographic location rich in fossil fuels and petroleum resources, the Iranian regime claims to be pursuing a nuclear energy program. In another bizarre and inexplicable international agreement, the Obama administration paid the known state sponsor of terror to pursue its nuclear program.

Iranian leadership is closely watching how the conflict with North Korea unfolds. How the United States and international community handles Kim Jung-On will undoubtedly influence Iran’s future actions and plans to attack Israel.

The carrot only works if there is a fear of the stick. ______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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Political Correctness: Armor of the Modern Terrorist

Political Correctness and those who demand it share a responsibility in the San Bernardino, Pulse Nightclub, and Fort Lauderdale Airport terrorist attacks.

In San Bernardino, political correctness took precedence over common sense and national security. Fear of being racially insensitive paralyzed at least one neighbor of Syed Farook and Tashfeen Malik, the couple responsible for the terrorist attack in San Bernardino, California. The individual failed to report the couple’s suspicious activity prior to the attack, she “didn’t want to do any kind of racial profiling,” convincing herself, “maybe it was just me convincing myself something that’s not there.” She admits to regretting her decision and failure to act.  

It is safe to assume the families of the 14 victims and others impacted by the senseless violence in San Bernardino regret her failure to act as well.

Similarly, there were plenty of warning signs indicating the terrorist responsible for the Orlando night club shooting, Omar Mir Seddique Mateen’s radical ideology and violent tendencies. Daniel Gilroy worked closely with the suspect for several months at a private security firm. Gilroy described Mateen as “unhinged and unstable.” The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was tipped off to the radical ideology and potentially violent behavior. The Bureau first became aware of Mateen in 2013 when he made “inflammatory comments to coworkers alleging possible terrorist ties.” After at least two interviews, the FBI opted to drop the investigation claiming they were unable to substantiate or confirm Mateen’s threatening and volatile comments.

Just before methodically flying killing five people in the baggage claim area of the Fort Lauderdale airport, Esteban Santiago-Ruiz walked into the FBI Field Office in Anchorage, Alaska claiming he was being forced to join the Islamic State.  

The incidents form an alarming pattern. People witnessing suspicious behavior failed to report the incidents and the federal government failed to act. Whether the responsibility or blame lies with government incompetency or institutionalized political correctness is unclear. Regardless, innocent people still lost their lives.

While lamentable, the decision not to report is certainly understandable. Reporting even the most damning and suspicious behavior can often end in ridicule and even personal threats. Those who dare report suspected terrorist activity can be slandered with accusations of racism, bigotry, intolerance, and “Islamophobia.”

For years, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has asked citizens to remain vigilant, tasking the general publish with “if you see something, say something.” However, when school teachers in Texas concerned with a suspicious electronic “clock like” device reported the incident or chose to “say something” to law enforcement officials, they were ridiculed on a national level. Everyone from then President Barack Obama to the mainstream media dismissed the school teachers as racist and Islamophobia.

While the school administration and incident report was attributed to mere racism, the reported “victim of Islamophobia” affectionately referred to as “Clock Boy” was rewarded with an invitation to the Obama White House and eventually chose to move and relocate to the tolerant human rights oasis of Saudi Arabia.

Political correctness cripples law enforcement and national security efforts. Citizens and government officials failed to act on blatant indicators prior to the San Bernardino, Pulse Nightclub, and Fort Lauderdale terrorist attacks.

The “political correct” ideology is dangerous; it is no longer a ticking time bomb or clock, but has long sense been detonated.

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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Media Matters

It has become so formulaic, one can almost predict the rhetoric following a tragic terrorist attack. World leaders, celebrities, and media personalities will tell the public that their “thoughts and prayers” are with the victims and their families and then in a knee-jerk reaction, they will reassure the public that the acts of violence are not representative of Islam as a whole and that not all Muslims are homicidal extremists.

The statement “not all Muslims are terrorists” is so accurate and clear it is almost insulting to include in the character count of a newspaper article or media report, yet in some way it almost always is.

From early 2001 to 2010 the Holy See, the governing body of the Catholic Church, was discovered to be covering up sex abuse allegations involving nearly 3,000 priests, bishops, or other clergy men.  The Catholic Community and the world were rightfully repulsed and demanded action.

The institutional protection of pedophiles had grassroots implications. Almost instantly, donations to the Catholic Charities fell by $118,000.  Some people questioned their faith, but there was no macro-level public relations campaign to remind everyone that “not all Catholics are pedophiles.” The Catholic community on every level recognized that there were some bad apples corrupting their faith and took action to correct the issue.

The constant reminder all Muslims are not terrorists is counterproductive. The Muslim population does not need world leaders, celebrities, and media spokespeople to serve as their mouthpiece or protectorate. As Islam is the fastest-growing religion world-wide, more and more people know or will come to know a great person of the Islamic faith. The actions of the individual will speak towards the community as a whole.

However, the Islamic community needs to own the problem of terrorism and extremism the way the Catholic Church owned the sex-abuse scandal. No cover ups, no institutionalized protection of radical Imams or their sermons, and no “looking the other way.”

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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Are You There Allah? It’s Me Margaret

The all-encompassing devotion or zealotry is one of the hardest aspects of Islamist fundamentalism to understand. The average Westerner may be atheist or attend a religious service weekly, but generally their cultural contact with an increasingly secular world prevents the average person from fully understanding the complete devotion – or rather submission- of a radical or fundamentalist Muslim.

One of the biggest mistakes while attempting to understand the paradigm of an extremist is analyzing events through a secular or moderate lens. Many believe radical Islamists are adhering to a strict interpretation of the Koran or Prophet Mohammed’s teachings. This is only half of the equation; however, it is also important to recognize the practitioner’s conversation with Allah is not closed or one-sided, it is actually ongoing.

When Egypt lost the Yom Kippur war to Israel in a crushing defeat, the explanation wasn’t unexpected military capabilities of the Israeli Defense Forces, it was believed the Muslim world was being punished by adopting aspects of Western culture and straying from the path of Islam (Jahiliyyah). Allah was angry, and Egypt’s defeat was his vengeance.

As a result, Imams and religious scholars urged for a return to a more conservative approach to Islam.

Radical religious scholars argue that the stricter adherence to the Koran and Sharia were rewarded when U.S. led troops on a humanitarian mission to Somalia were tortured, executed, mutilated, and eventually driven out of the country by al-Qaeda linked Islamic warlords. Another claimed “success” was when two al-Qaeda operatives used an aquatic VBIED to attack the USS Cole. Osama Bin Laden claimed fundamentalism was being rewarded when al-Qaeda operatives conducted the September 11 attacks.

For the radical Islamist militant, the word and direction of Allah is not just limited to the text of the Koran or hadiths, but an evolving interpretation and open ended conversation which is communicated through successful attacks, campaigns and natural disasters. ______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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In Defense of the “Travel Ban”

While I generally avoid delving into commentary on domestic partisan politics, I would like to discuss the recent controversy surrounding President Trump’s executive order prohibiting travelers of countries known to sponsor and harbor terrorists from entering the United States.

This executive order and the debate surrounding it is long overdue. This dialogue precedes both the Trump and Obama administrations and should have been discussed during the Bush presidency.

More than 15 years ago, CNN and other media outlets reported on immigration vetting issues, “Six months to the day after [9/11 hijackers] Mohamed Atta and Marwan al-Shihhi flew planes into the World Trade Center, the [U.S.] Immigration and Naturalization Service notified a Venice, Florida flight school that the two men had been approved for student visas.”

Putting partisan loyalties and emotions aside, everyone should be able to agree there is a major problem with the U.S.’ Immigration and Naturalization Service’s vetting process if two of the men responsible for the deadliest terror attack on American soil can get their visas approved after the attack. It is an irrefutable national security problem.

To their credit, President Bush and President Obama attempted to rectify the issue by implementing similar travel bans. During his presidency, President Obama used executive orders to halt immigration at least six times.  In a move similar to the now contested “travel ban,” President Obama signed an executive order putting restrictions on Iraqi immigrants citing a national security threat.  Additionally, Former President George W. Bush used executive powers six times and Former President Bill Clinton issued similar acts twice.

The Trump Administration has called for a temporary travel ban from countries that harbor, sponsor, or have links to terror. The ban hopes to provide intelligence and security officials with enough time to figure out how to properly vet individuals and make sure al-Qaeda operatives are not approved for visas after killing 2996 people. The real concern is that other hostile countries such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan aren’t on the list.

Arguably the travel ban did not overreach, it didn’t go far enough.

But that is for the courts to decide. ______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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According to the Obama Administration, all refugees are not created equal…

Just days before leaving office, President Obama reverses the “Wet Foot, Dry Foot” policy granting residents to Cubans arriving in the United States without visas.

For an administration so vocal about admitting refugees, revoking refugee status for Cuban Americans and those fleeing human rights abuses and systematic political oppression in Cuba is a strange, inconsistent, and dangerous policy to enact. ______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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Forecasting the Economic Climate in a Post-Fidel Cuba:

Special for Lynx Global Intelligence:

While many in the international community remain optimistic that the death of Fidel Castro will pave the way for human rights changes in Cuba, the possibility of dramatic economic changes in the island nation has been under discussed.

Cuba has been on the cusp of dramatic changes to its communist economic system. In the past, Cuba has survived depressions, recessions, and prevalent economic ruts through financial supports and subsidies provided by Venezuela. However, Venezuela’s hyperinflation and economic woes have limited the South American country’s ability to financially help Cuba. Venezuela’s slashed financial subsidies have forced the island nation to make capitalist concessions in Cuba’s overtly communist economic system. Even prior to Fidel Castro’s death, Cuba legalized “small and medium sized” private businesses, a huge capitalist concession in the government’s controlled economy.

As capitalist influences have already begun reshaping the country’s economy, Cuba is primed for an unprecedented economic boom. The government reports nearly a 100% literacy rate, suggesting the general population could serve as a viable and educated workforce.[3] Additionally, the Cuban government has noted efforts in rooting out organized crime groups within the country in order to suppress their political influence. This minimizes the overt influence of transnational organized criminal syndicates operating in the economic arena, providing international investors and business ventures with a fair environment with minimal “mob” interference. Lastly, while the island country may have raw materials, there is a significant need for material goods making Cuba an ideal marketplace for the international export of manufactured goods.

The economic changes and leanings towards a free-market system would make Cuba and the generation more profitable. The additional financial resources could then be used to empower the individual, paving the way for societal and human rights changes.

The aforementioned forecasting is only viable in a “glass is half full” paradigm, there always remains the possibility that those in power will suppress any progress, economic, and societal changes. However, idealistically, there is a significant hope that the ghosts of the past will no longer be able to dictate the spirit of the future.

Viva Cuba Libre.

Matthew Nieminski, Lynx Global Intelligence Chain – Intelligence Analyst

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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The United States has reached out to the communist government; however, the regime was not prompted or urged to make any human rights or political changes. On the contrary, Cuban President Raul Castro called the United States “the enemy” and warned Cubans to be vigilant and mindful for efforts to undermine the Communist Revolution. More recently, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez called U.S. President Obama’s visit to the communist island “an attack on the foundation of our history, our culture and our symbols.”

In 2009, U.S. President Obama issued a statement and warning to dictators: “to those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.“ While the U.S. has extended a hand - a hand offering millions of dollars –Cuba’s government officials have not “unclenched” their fist.

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

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Terror in the Sunshine State

Originally published with Miami News Today:

While the multi-agency search for Afghan immigrant Ahmad Khan Rahami, 28, the man believed to be connected to multiple bombings in New York and New Jersey, has safely concluded, recent arrests in Miami Beach have left South Florida residents feeling uneasy. On Saturday, Mohamed Azab Youssef, Artur Schaback, and Ivan Suhharev were arrested following multiple reports of men dangerously wielding a firearm on a Miami Beach rooftop. Over the weekend, the men reportedly pointed an AR-15 at citizens and tourists walking from an apartment balcony at 1100 Collins Ave. At least one of the men donned a mask over his face while engaging in the act and posing for pictures, prompting multiple 911 calls. After taking the men into custody, police searched the apartment discovering the AR-15, more than 500 rounds of ammunition, a switchblade knife, drug paraphernalia, and substances believed to be hashish, and cocaine. The recent tragedy of the Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando, has thrust Florida into the frontlines of the War on Terror and battle with the Islamic State. While none of the arrested men are reported to have terror connections, the erratic behavior has many residents and law enforcement officials questioning their motive. There have been several recent local events that prompt terror concerns. On July 4, crowds gathering to watch a fireworks show erupted into chaos after a man opened fire at the Bayside market place and waterfront parks in Downtown Miami. While the shooting did not cause any fatalities, at least fifteen people were injured during the incident. In late July 2016, three South Florida men were arrested and charged with knowingly conspiring and attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State. Matthew Nieminski, an intelligence specialist, elaborates on the threat to South Florida, “When people think terrorism, they generally think large international cities and political targets-- they think New York and Washington, DC. However, the Islamic State has changed and evolved on traditional terrorist and guerilla tactics. The elaborate, multi-phased plots of al-Qaeda have been swapped with simpler, low-level attacks favored by the Islamic State. Now ISIS inspired attacks are occurring all over the country, from San Bernardino to Orlando and everywhere in between.” In addition to the tactics, Mr. Nieminski notes the targets have also changed. “Government, military, and iconic targets such as the World Trade Center have been fortified and undergone asset hardening. Terrorists are now exploiting ‘soft targets’ such as charity runs and marathons.” While the tactics and targets have changed, responses and prevention have remained constant. Federal, state, and local law enforcement officials maintain the citizenry is the most important collection agent of any security apparatus. The US Department of Homeland Security continues its “see something, say something campaign.” Civilian cooperation is essential, as even the “Sunshine State” is not immune to acts of terror and hate.

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

[matthewnieminski]

The Pen Tweet is Mightier than the Sword:

Originally Published on Miami News Today:

Rances Vargas still believes in the American dream. When he and his family emigrated from Havana, Cuba in March 2002, he disregarded the oppressive communist regime of his homeland and optimistically embraced the United States’ capitalist economic system. For the Vargas family, the pursuit of the American dream never stopped. Rances graduated from high school and pursued his undergraduate degree while working as a cashier and cook at a local McDonald’s restaurant. He continued his education, eventually obtaining a masters degree in Miami, a city hosting a huge population of Cuban immigrants, exiles, and refugees.

In a poetic act of rebellion to the ruling Castro regime, Rances takes to social media to exercise his freedom of speech on a broad range of social and political issues. Rances posts on everything from the capitalist system and free market to more personal political matters, such as the restoration of U.S.-Cuban relations. Rances hopes to spread awareness on the oft overshadowed dissenting opinion and the economic impacts of the diplomatic situation, an uphill battle.

Rances seeks out comments of optimism, appeasement, and pacifism searching for buzz words such as “patience” and “hope.” He counters these messages with facts and his expert knowledge on international relations, diplomacy, and U.S. foreign policy in Latin America and the Caribbean.

When people share their dismay for boycotts and sanctions, they don’t understand that “suffering its part of the process. Reciprocity is not really a factor in these ‘negotiations’ -not from Cuba at least,” Rances says. Indeed, the economic hardships are by design, an attempt to incite unrest and political instability, prompting a regime change. Such mass civil disturbances have recently proved effective in regime changes during the Arab Spring. With Venezuela’s failed economy unable to support the Cuban economy and Castro government, the communist island was primed for a similar regime change.

As Rances and his family uprooted their life and sought refuge from Cuba, he questions the sudden change of heart and desire to reach out and arguably appease the dictatorship. While commercial flights have been restored between the countries, Rances ponders the desire to return, “As with most Cubans, the bottom-line was to get away from the oppressive government of the Castro regime and the economic uncertainties.”

Rances is not alone. Many Cuban-Americans share the dissenting opinion of the reemergence of U.S.-Cuban diplomatic relations.  In April 2016, people from all over South Florida gathered to protest a proposed Cuban Consulate in Miami Beach. Cuban exiles called the proposition and idea of consulate in Miami Beach “disrespectful to exile community.” More recently, protesters gathered outside the Carnival Cruise Lines headquarters in Miami to express opposition to an archaic Cuban law banning Cuban-born individuals from returning to the Communist island by boat, prohibiting them from any cruises stop in Cuba.

While the archaic cruise ship law has since been changed, the sentiment behind the policy has not. After the first U.S. cruise ship pulled into port, a Cuban “dissident” was arrested for waving an American flag. Inane and oppressive Cuban laws drive the opposition movement. The United States has reached out to the communist government, and the regime was not prompted or urged to make any changes. On the contrary, Cuba President Raul Castro called the United States “the enemy” and warned Cubans to be vigilant and mindful for efforts to undermine the Communist revolution. More recently, Cuba Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez called U.S. President Obama’s visit to the communist island “an attack on the foundation of our history, our culture and our symbols.”

In 2009, U.S. President Obama issued a statement and warning to dictators: “to those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.“ While the U.S. has extended a hand - a hand offering millions of dollars –Cuba’s government officials have not “unclenched” their fist.

Rances is a man who truly understands the propaganda efforts and disinformation tactics of the Castro regime. Dissatisfied with the recent U.S.-Cuban interactions, Rances continues his uphill battle to promote free market principles and voice opposition to the oppressive regime “They truly didn’t give up anything. They don’t have to toe the line, there is no line.”                     ______________________________________________________________

Rances Vargas is a graduate of Florida International University’s School of International Political Affairs. He has worked with many elected officials and specializes in national security and U.S foreign policy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Follow him on Twitter: @TheRances.

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Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

[matthewnieminski]

The Kid’s Aren’t Alright

At least 51 people were killed and 69 injured when a twelve year old suicide bomber attacked a Kurdish wedding party in southeastern Turkey.  The Islamic State’s abhorrent use of the tween boy was widely condemned by the international community. The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS) nefarious use of children is not expected to decrease in the foreseeable future. As evidenced by the group’s long term goals, the Islamic State has been planning and focused on its future generations:

In August 2016, the media and “public relations” branch of the Islamic State released a 9-minute long propaganda video depicting the Islamist terrorist army’s “cubs,” a unit of children around 10 years old, executing five Kurdish fighters.

In May 2016, ISIS launched a smart phone application designed for children. The application uses games to teach the Arabic alphabet, Islamist ideology, and contains “important” vocabulary words such as “gun,” “tank,” and “rocket.”

In January 2015, ISIS released parenting or instructional guides detailing how mothers should raise their children in preparation for waging jihad or holy war.

ISIS is not hiding its intentions to cultivate and use future generations in its ideological war and establishment of a worldwide Caliphate.

The use of child soldiers by Islamist regimes is not unprecedented. During the Iran–Iraq War, the Islamic Republic of Iran's leadership is reported to have issued “Plastic Keys to Paradise” to child “volunteers.”  The trinkets symbolized martyrdom and entry into "paradise" for the child soldiers who were killed in service to the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Despite the ongoing heinous human rights atrocities and abuse of children, the Islamic Republic of Iran was rewarded by the United States with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or “Iran Deal.”

How will the United States deal with the Islamic State's use and cultivation of child soldiers?

______________________________________________________________ Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski

[matthewnieminski]

Contract Killers

While new crime statistics show 31 individuals have been arrested for suspected connections to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), government officials in the United States continue to quibble over what level and frequency of contact the individuals had with ISIS leadership.

However, to the average American citizen or victim, it doesn’t matter.

ISIS is a movement. Its sympathizers and operatives can be influenced, recruited, and radicalized through distant channels, communication applications, and social media platforms. Instead of thinking as ISIS operatives and sympathizers as enlisted card carrying members of an Islamic army, it may be helpful to consider them as independent contractors, following orders and a general obligation but working independently. These individuals are brainwashed mercenaries being paid in intrinsic ideological benefits and “salvation.”

However, even the loyalties of mercenary zealots can be fickle and easily changed which is why ISIS runs an aggressive and ongoing social media psychological conditioning campaign estimated to publish as many as 80 Tweets per minute.This elaborate propaganda machine reiterates and validates the ideological benefits of an ISIS sympathizer or operative. Combined with frequent ISIS attacks worldwide, the mercenary can’t help but see the importance of the Caliphate’s mission.

The recruitment of ISIS operatives across the globe is only expected to continue. The international community must act to control the spread of ISIS, beginning with the group’s recruitment efforts. Winning or starting the war against the Islamist group will cull the organizations numbers, as history has shown mercenaries prefer to fight for the “winning” side.

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Matthew Nieminski is an intelligence analyst focusing on conflict and terrorism. He is an experienced security specialist specializing in asset hardening and the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources. Follow him on Twitter: @MattNieminski